Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[ralphey]

AMRN has a lot of issues it has to get by to be a success. AS a Family Doc I used the drug a fair amount. Its trig lowering capacity is not significant. However, as you have said that may be irrelevant if the outcomes study reveals great results.

The current issues I see are;

If the drug were a booming success study probably would have already been stopped. That leaves us with the ff possibilities:

1.) Moderate success in general population ( best choice)
2.) Success only in subsets ( ie diabetics with high trigs low hdl - personally I think this is what we will see )
3.) No success

Lets look at all three

no success - then it reverts to the trigs >500 market where it doesnt do a very good job - and the company fails

success only in subsets - currently docs are prescribing the med based on an understanding that it is reducing CAD risk in people with trigs 200-500. If it proves only successful in subsets then the potential market actually shrinks from current usage - rx numbers will decline - as will the stock

Thus REDUCE IT must be a success in the general population - but wait - even if it is the last hurdle is that about 60- 70% of my Rx's for vascepa get returned from the insurance company indicating that the patient should use OTC omega 3. So if the study does show moderate success the insurance companies just substitute OTC omega 3 - and believe me no docs are going to spend any time fighting that battle - The study may ultimately have been named ...for the stocks value