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Re: Moeclay post# 415271

Monday, 06/05/2017 12:14:37 AM

Monday, June 05, 2017 12:14:37 AM

Post# of 869380
Starting to think even release news wouldn't boostPPS. With all the various proposals out there, and endless manipulation and PR from the TBTF disguised as news at Bloomberg and WSJ, I wonder if, even an announcement that a resolution has been finally decided on would even boost share prices as much as we've all been hoping all this time. I could see there being left over maybe too many unanswered questions, particularly if the lawsuits aren't settled when the GSEs are released, for institutional $ to really jump in as much as we might otherwise expect. Other unanswered questions include G-fee level, the question of there being possibly open ended competition via open CSP access threatening the GSEs' traditional "moat", the constitutionality of the FHFA's structure in question, 2018&2020 political risk and unknowns, Fed's gradual interest rate hikes seemingly forecast over the next couple of years making mortgages more expensive, and more questions I could think of. I'm starting to wonder if all of that plus the multiple layers of dilution to the common shares proposed by Moelis via two offerings, preferred being converted, and warrants being exercised and sold by gvt would add up to only a relatively minor pop in PPS, to maybe just a bit over where it was before the Appeals court decision came down. So say $5 or even $6 after a release announcement. That seems great from $2.60ish if you recently got into this. But for many of us who've been here for years...it might be a bit underwhelming to say the least.
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