The day traders are at it, with the price per unit occupying a wider stance. I think we'll close about 15 cents above yesterday's close and that's fine.
Where the traders are making a mistake, in my opinion, lies in the fact that the rising trajectory is not to be denied as we move closer to ex-distribution day which is slated for late next week on the 18th. This means units will rise in a head-to-head confrontation between distribution hunters in search of the 38 cents awaiting the lustful---versus traders vacating as they settle for that 38 cents. Their mistake lies in the fact that 38 cents is just that---38 cents. One week ago Thursday, we closed at $8.77. A few minutes from the close on a Friday we stand at $11.30, higher by 20 cents since yesterday's close. I'll be happy if we hang onto it.
The much bigger money to be made near term is going to those shrewd enough to recognize you don't sell for pennies heading into an ex-distribution four business days ahead. It's foolish, given that we've gained two whole dollars over the past week. Obviously ALDW is going to be adding more next week---starting Monday and going through Thursday which is the eve before going ex.
The trading session just closed and it appears we managed to rise 20 cents on the day, closing at $11.30. Last Friday we closed at an even $9.00. This week of trading, then, has produced a $2.30 gain. Not bad for a nine dollar stock, wouldn't you say? It'
s a 26% gain. And you know what? I predict we'll continue rising next week, at the least---eclipsing the $12 threshold. It's going to feel great because I had so much on the line.
People probably figure I'm rich because I put so much faith into this particular pick. But in truth I hold a dozen stocks. With the exception of NGL, I have far much less cash weighing on results in my other picks.
With things going well here in the Land of ALDW, there's some luck involved, of course. There's instinct and then a bit of thinking, too.....in an effort to try to connect the pertinent dots that should yield a sizable return on invested money.
Some have though I'm crazy to take such a huge chance on this little refinery company. I haven't looked at it that way. From the start it's been a matter of "Do I have the guts to trust myself?" On the flip side is:
"Hell no! This is stupid, crazy, frivolous and a whole lot of other things I can think of describing a foolish investor."
But there's another item that's been bugging me from the start:
I've been wanting a big winner. I've had some nice picks come through but I've been craving that big one---a really big one at that. To make it pay off handsomely, shares have to start out as very affordable. Then, the stock pick has to have a large enough trading audience to enable a larger investor to make a few killings along the way. Only considerable trading volume affords that. And it has to be a stock that I can understand while anticipating some of its events likely to occur down the road apiece.
So it finally came down to this:
"OK, it's looking like it deserves a chance to come through for me. Now, then---do I have the guts to risk more than half of my investable cash on this one frowned-upon refiner that most believe to be a dead end? Am I ready to stand with it, committed despite being alone in my findings and projections?"
I now see that we closed three cents higher than the number showed at closing time--- the official close is now at $11.33. That is so nice to see for I'm dead certain we're running considerably higher next week. This thing may seem like it's rising on the backs of dividend hunters but I suspect a lot of the buying traffic is focused on establishing strong positions now, at the start of the buying frenzy sure to develop as we move towards the center of quarter #2. We are now entering that point in the cycle.
Lastly---I see $12 written all over next week but my expectation is that June will have us knocking on the door to a $13 unit. My late 2016 projections for 2017 had units of ALDW running at $17 and better, heading into Quarter 4. I'm sticking to those early projections.
What do you folks see? Am I full of it? Go ahead, I can take it.
