AI
Thursday, April 27, 2017 10:43:46 AM
you must have been out for lunch, been there done that
Assuming a Binary test at a $150 price for the trendsetters market introduction (see my 1. note) ....
Working backwards
$150 sliced, at 100% mark-up by hospital and stand-alone MD practice, moving to next level down, at:
$75 distributor pricing for a name brand "biggie test market partner", at 40% profit margin, $7.50 distribution cost, 16.6% royalty,
and results in a manufacturing level or transfer pricing of:
$25 Peregrine Joint Venture manufacturer pricing, with costs including Bavi substrate (?) and UT license fee, plus off-shore deposited IP charge ($5?) -- noting a color printer cartridge is selling for $55 -- and possibly as complex as the exosome basic test kit –so our Binary test kit might be produced for $15 as a wild guess.
Assume 20.4 million tests from the trendsetters and cancer family initial marketing launch only, per earlier breakdown under "1. EXOSOME"
Hence, Peregrine potential pass through profit of $12.50 (16.6% royalty) and $5 (IP), at only 20.4 million kits just for the trendsetters and cancer family couples would amount to $357million annually, within say 3 years, and ramping up exponentially thereafter, but then with likely declining end-use pricing of say $98 in the USA -- and $50 elsewhere with EU socialized medicine, at cost-plus and zero mark-ups at the EU's GP offices and clinics.
Time to slice this $357 million in three year "trendsetter market opportunity" to reflect onto the Peregrine current crummy valuation in a flash – more
