AI
Tuesday, April 25, 2017 11:09:34 AM
2. EXOSOME to yield Peregrine $300million profits Year 3, minimum
EXOSOME $67 BILLION WORLDWIDE – continued for a
Exosome Binary blood test "first in" preventive early detection and post-treatment monitoring
Base price and assumed cost parameters, what sales figures and profits should revert to Peregrine?
Other Consumer-related Pricing Points
consumer direct, with ads – ancestry prognosis, 5 companies, pricing range $99 to $199 (DNA), mid-point $150.
in hospital annual blood test, diabetics, $172
comprehensive blood test $450 for cardiac patient (follow-up)
PRICING CONSIDERATIONS: my question to 4 USA well-to-do entrepreneurs and professionals, age 40 to 62,:as to value of such early detection test: -- entrepreneur "priceless, would pay anything ie, $3000 a year", pressed for more reasonable price, he "thought $300 would be cheap" , his wife, a manager in an insurance company, being the youngest and the others with very expensive hobbies could not make up their minds, even with $100 I posed as reasonable. Needs some selling, as "universal" to all solid cancers and "accurate" might appear too good to believe? And likely it did not overly interest them. HENCE, a 33% response rate assumed in the USA population, earlier on.
In yesterday's follow-up, one man a "$4,000" and does not want annual (?); two intelligent and personable middle class working women, ages 40-50, separately (!) came up with $200; a retired couple both thought $300, her mentioning that even at $100 and covered 80% by medicare many could not afford such (reality in this evaolving USA now); a 34 year old (plus minus 4yrs) psychiatrist with provocative legs and provocatively argued views (no mattter my facts!)--she thought any tests must be DNA based as cancer is inherited, so our test should cost $25,000 as such was a DNA defect testing for her fetus, a n d (priceless) most people do not want to know if they have cancer, "are in denial", as having cancer would have them be shunned -- adding "believe me, I have talked to my clients". Wow. And worse, a 50 year old high spending wife of a 1%ter or 2%ter high earnings executive who in her earlier career had been in advertising, is college educated and with three children, whose in-law had died of cancer, could not make up her mind if she even wanted an early detection test, never mind come up with a reasonable price (is it covered by insurance?) all that after 8 minutes of giving her the relevant information – "I have to know more about it o make up my mind" just to get a reasonable price!!!-- sounds like the psychiatrist was right. One mid-fifties man, at $300, two late 50s women did not want to to have early detection (better not to know) until I laid out what a cancer late treatment really is all about. THIS REALLY NEEDS MARKETING, IMO. People are reluctant, so that's why we need trendsetters for publicity.
Assuming a Binary test at a $150 price for the trendsetters market introduction (see my 1. note) –-- it may appear as a give-away to the wealthy, but one could tie- in a $3,000 "TYPE OF CANCER TEST" (CP's designation) FOR CHARITY FUNDING AND MARKET PUBLICITY at product launch, until we get market volume and credibility in the TYPE test category for fair pricing .
Working backwards
$150 sliced, at 100% mark-up by hospital and stand-alone MD practice, moving to next level down, at:
$75 distributor pricing for a name brand "biggie test market partner", at 40% profit margin, $7.50 distribution cost, 16.6% royalty,
and results in a manufacturing level or transfer pricing of:
$25 Peregrine Joint Venture manufacturer pricing, with costs including Bavi substrate (?) and UT license fee, plus off-shore deposited IP charge ($5?) -- noting a color printer cartridge is selling for $55 -- and possibly as complex as the exosome basic test kit –so our Binary test kit might be produced for $15 as a wild guess.
Assume 20.4 million tests from the trendsetters and cancer family initial marketing launch only, per earlier breakdown under "1. EXOSOME"
Hence, Peregrine potential pass through profit of $12.50 (16.6% royalty) and $5 (IP), at only 20.4 million kits just for the trendsetters and cancer family couples would amount to $357million annually, within say 3 years, and ramping up exponentially thereafter, but then with likely declining end-use pricing of say $98 in the USA -- and $50 elsewhere with EU socialized medicine, at cost-plus and zero mark-ups at the EU's GP offices and clinics.
Time to slice this $357 million in three year "trendsetter market opportunity" to reflect onto the Peregrine current crummy valuation in a flash – more
EXOSOME $67 BILLION WORLDWIDE – continued for a
Exosome Binary blood test "first in" preventive early detection and post-treatment monitoring
Base price and assumed cost parameters, what sales figures and profits should revert to Peregrine?
Other Consumer-related Pricing Points
consumer direct, with ads – ancestry prognosis, 5 companies, pricing range $99 to $199 (DNA), mid-point $150.
in hospital annual blood test, diabetics, $172
comprehensive blood test $450 for cardiac patient (follow-up)
PRICING CONSIDERATIONS: my question to 4 USA well-to-do entrepreneurs and professionals, age 40 to 62,:as to value of such early detection test: -- entrepreneur "priceless, would pay anything ie, $3000 a year", pressed for more reasonable price, he "thought $300 would be cheap" , his wife, a manager in an insurance company, being the youngest and the others with very expensive hobbies could not make up their minds, even with $100 I posed as reasonable. Needs some selling, as "universal" to all solid cancers and "accurate" might appear too good to believe? And likely it did not overly interest them. HENCE, a 33% response rate assumed in the USA population, earlier on.
In yesterday's follow-up, one man a "$4,000" and does not want annual (?); two intelligent and personable middle class working women, ages 40-50, separately (!) came up with $200; a retired couple both thought $300, her mentioning that even at $100 and covered 80% by medicare many could not afford such (reality in this evaolving USA now); a 34 year old (plus minus 4yrs) psychiatrist with provocative legs and provocatively argued views (no mattter my facts!)--she thought any tests must be DNA based as cancer is inherited, so our test should cost $25,000 as such was a DNA defect testing for her fetus, a n d (priceless) most people do not want to know if they have cancer, "are in denial", as having cancer would have them be shunned -- adding "believe me, I have talked to my clients". Wow. And worse, a 50 year old high spending wife of a 1%ter or 2%ter high earnings executive who in her earlier career had been in advertising, is college educated and with three children, whose in-law had died of cancer, could not make up her mind if she even wanted an early detection test, never mind come up with a reasonable price (is it covered by insurance?) all that after 8 minutes of giving her the relevant information – "I have to know more about it o make up my mind" just to get a reasonable price!!!-- sounds like the psychiatrist was right. One mid-fifties man, at $300, two late 50s women did not want to to have early detection (better not to know) until I laid out what a cancer late treatment really is all about. THIS REALLY NEEDS MARKETING, IMO. People are reluctant, so that's why we need trendsetters for publicity.
Assuming a Binary test at a $150 price for the trendsetters market introduction (see my 1. note) –-- it may appear as a give-away to the wealthy, but one could tie- in a $3,000 "TYPE OF CANCER TEST" (CP's designation) FOR CHARITY FUNDING AND MARKET PUBLICITY at product launch, until we get market volume and credibility in the TYPE test category for fair pricing .
Working backwards
$150 sliced, at 100% mark-up by hospital and stand-alone MD practice, moving to next level down, at:
$75 distributor pricing for a name brand "biggie test market partner", at 40% profit margin, $7.50 distribution cost, 16.6% royalty,
and results in a manufacturing level or transfer pricing of:
$25 Peregrine Joint Venture manufacturer pricing, with costs including Bavi substrate (?) and UT license fee, plus off-shore deposited IP charge ($5?) -- noting a color printer cartridge is selling for $55 -- and possibly as complex as the exosome basic test kit –so our Binary test kit might be produced for $15 as a wild guess.
Assume 20.4 million tests from the trendsetters and cancer family initial marketing launch only, per earlier breakdown under "1. EXOSOME"
Hence, Peregrine potential pass through profit of $12.50 (16.6% royalty) and $5 (IP), at only 20.4 million kits just for the trendsetters and cancer family couples would amount to $357million annually, within say 3 years, and ramping up exponentially thereafter, but then with likely declining end-use pricing of say $98 in the USA -- and $50 elsewhere with EU socialized medicine, at cost-plus and zero mark-ups at the EU's GP offices and clinics.
Time to slice this $357 million in three year "trendsetter market opportunity" to reflect onto the Peregrine current crummy valuation in a flash – more
