Wave Systems Corp. (fka WAVXQ)

[Zeev Hed]

Look at OUM or for that matter at the bu$$. The bu$$ is very a-propo, INTC desperately needed to solve the bottleneck in speed which resided in memory, no sense of having a GHz processor if the memory is stuck at 100 MHz, until DDR came that was the only way INTC could see selling $800 to $1200 premium fast processors (where they make the real money). Once DDR arrived, INTC abandoned their own RDRAM mother board. If it was really extremely important to their road map, they would have struck a deal with WAVX, including an equity position and massive R&D spending (as they did with OUM and the bu$$). When RDRAM was important to sell premium processors, INTC paid a trophy of $80 rebates to chip buyers to subsidize the excessive cost differential between SDRAM and RDRAM, now that was a way to learn that the bu$$ was important to INTC. I see no similar commitment so far here. Even if there was a commitment of that importance (like there was for OUM and RDRAM), no assurance that this commitment will be maintained. Look at OUM, it was supposed to have been deployed late in 2000 or at the latest early 2001 (I had bitter arguments with ENER followers on that issue, stating at the time that for pure physics reasons, it is unlikely that OUM will get anywhere, it still is nowhere, go to the SI RMBS thread and search that period). Look NSM has a major project with ISON on their Si28 material, that does no mean that one day Si-28 will dominate the Si wafer business, I can tell you as I have told ISON people three years ago (before their own NSM induced huge spike from $3 to $17 and the turn back to mother earth under $1 recently.

It does not mean that WAVX will not prevail, but with the empty coffers (and not just some $10 MM to carry on for a year), it will be a tough trek. If WAVX can maintain their stock price in the $4 to $6 area in the next few months and exit the Autumn troubles unscathed (price wise) they should do a secondary of at least 10 MM shares at $5 or so per share to assure enough financial muscles to achieve their corporate goals.