Zeev's Turnips Talk Politics (ZTTP)

[teapeebubbles]

In a column posted on the website HumanEvents.com, columnist Robert Novak has given his opinion on the chances of Republicans capturing seats "in play" which are currently held by Democrats. After assessing the chances of winning those seats, Novak explains that the "first word that comes to mind is 'pitiful.'"

By Novak's assessment, of fourteen races for seats which are currently held by Democrats, only one is leaning toward the GOP. Comparatively, Novak writes that forty GOP seats are "in play." Of the forty, Novak says eleven are leaning Democrat and four appear to be likely Democratic wins. If Novak's predictions are correct on Election Day, the Democrats will have a gain of fifteen seats in the House, the number needed to take control from the Republican majority.

In seats held by Republicans, Novak writes that "we see a very rich environment of Democratic takeover targets." Excerpts from the column follow...

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If The Election Were Held Today: To date, we have discussed this election in terms of what the final outcome will look like in November. We have also mentioned Republican fears that, as one House committee chairman has said privately, Republicans will lose 25 seats -- or as we were told that national internal polls suggested, they could lose as many as 26 seats.

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The first word that comes to mind with this chart [of Democratic seats in play] is "pitiful." Most striking is the small space it takes up on the page and the emptiness of the category to the right -- "Likely Republican Takeover" -- and the near emptiness of "Leans GOP." There is not one easy takeover target for the Republicans this year. Republicans have failed to expand the playing field on the Democrats' side.

...

On the Republican-held chart, we see a very rich environment of Democratic takeover targets. Admittedly, some are less realistic than others, but the fact that there are so many, compared to so few on the Democratic chart, illustrates the problem Republicans face this year. Any way one looks at it, the odds are clearly stacked against the GOP and in favor of Democrats. Republicans are certain to lose House seats this year, even under the best scenario they can envision.