Just my opinion - I have no idea when 80% event will occur but guess around this month or next. Problem is that there are multiple moving parts that we cannot know. While we may know approx when 60% occurred (sometime last March) and when the company projects the 100% event (but they could be off by a month or two), we cannot know when 80% occurred or will occur. I don't think considering PYs from past CCs or presentations necessarily adds anything to ability to predict this. The problem is that entry criteria changed to focus on patients who were at higher risk in year 3, which could make events occur faster over time. However, if V becomes more effective over time (which no one knows for sure), events could occur slower. If Pyr's hypothesis is correct regarding more drop outs in PL group (I would think this would be no more than 10% regardless), this would slow down the event rate as well, and delay the 80%. For these reasons, I also don't think we can assume that a slower than anticipated 80% event necessarily indicates greater efficacy of V, although that would be most likely in my view. I also do not believe that info on PYs or when events occur tells us anything accurately about efficacy of V. To make that interpretation, we have to make assumptions about placebo rate, something we cannot know accurately. Total events could be based on any combination of event rates across the two groups, so not terribly informative (much as I would like to be able to guess what the V rate is). Just my 2 cents on the large number of recent posts on these issues.
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