Nice work. The distribution looks conservative. Do we have any "interim" enrollment numbers at any milestone, or we just got the beginning and end dates ?
"if we suppose the trial is to be unblinded today"
Maybe this is the problem as I see it. On what basis would you expect the trial to be un-blinded ? For sure it would not be 100% of the patients have "evented". It might be as low as two-thirds.
"I use theoretical survival curves"
Now these you should keep secret !
"....on the biotech battle-field, you need some élan...."