Dendreon Corp fka DNDNQ

[alizumo]

With the following enrolment distribution and if we suppose the trial is to be unblinded today the combined (control and Provenge) MDT (Median PSA doubling time) would be 12.53 months. If (and only if) the control has a 9 months MDT and if (and only if) the trial is not yet unblinded and given the following enrolment distribution which might not be accurate at all, then the Provenge MDT should be 16.6 months a possible 84% increase over control.

I use theoretical survival curves which I tested on other trials and are reasonably accurate. I took into account the fact that patients received their first shot 3 months after being enrolled and started counting their PSA doubling Time accordingly.

I have no precise idea of what should be the exact enrolment distribution. Feel free to post enrolment distributions and unblinding date or hypothetical MTD and I will give you whether the possible unblinding date or the possible combined MTD.




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