AI
Friday, October 28, 2016 4:25:13 PM
AVID REVS: FY'17(May16-Apr17) guidance $50-55mm (committed B/L=$71mm), per 9-8-16 PR/CC (http://tinyurl.com/jydtkoy ).
Looking at Avid’s rev history, the 5qtrs ended 4-30-16 averaged ~$11mm/Qtr. <=those rev’s were ALL from AVID I (Frankin).
FY17Q1(qe Jul31) was $5.6mm (due to 3rd-party testing delays) and Q2(qe Oct31, rep. ~Dec8) “will exceed $20mm”, averaging ~$13mm/qtr, possibly more depending on how far Q2 “exceeds $20mm”.
13x4=52
15x4=60
17x4=68
In the 9-8-16 CC/Q&S Paul Lytle said this: “We recognized $44mm in revenues during FY16 (fye 4-30-16) and that all came from our original Franklin facility. In March this year, we commissioned our new Myford facility, which is built for late stage Phase III clinical & commercial production. We are currently going through the motions of multiple process validation runs and those runs right now are built into our financial projections of the $50-55mm, with our goal of turning those process validation runs, which is the final step before submitting something to the FDA under preapproval inspection in terms of producing commercial quantities for those clients. So this year is really a building year in terms of building those process validation runs for our clients, and then we’re hopeful that those will turn into commercial supply needs in future FY’s.” http://tinyurl.com/jydtkoy
Avid II (Myford) revenues were coming in as of 9-8-16, albeit via “mult. process validation runs” for clientS (<=note plural per PL). We don’t know when the FDA allows those to turn into Commercial Runs, but the trendline on Avid II revenue contributions to total Avid revenues is clearly UP – they’ve told us “up to $40mm per year” when Avid II is really humming.
Updated PPHM REVS-BY-QTR TABLE, now thru FY17'Q1(qe 7-31-16), per the 7-31-16 10-Q ( http://tinyurl.com/jmy77g3 ) issued 9-8-16.
• Total Revs since May’06: ($179.2mm/Avid + $24.1mm/Govt + $2.5mm/Lic.) = $205.8mm
• 9-8-16: FY'17 (May'16-Apr'17) Avid revs guidance $50-55mm (Committed B/L=$71mm).
• Deferred-Revs at 7-31-16 total $21.5mm, UP from $10.0mm at 4-30-16.
• Cust.Deposits at 7-31-16 total $21.7mm, DOWN from $24.2mm at 4-30-16.
• Inventories at 7-31-16 total $25.3mm, UP from $16.2mm at 4-30-16.
• Avid’s Gross-Profit over last 4 qtrs: $19.2mm on revs of $40.6mm (GP%=47%)
• Recall, Avid Rev$ from Gov’t DTRA Contract work (6/30/08 – 4/15/11, totaling $24.15mm), went into GOVT-REVS, not AVID-REVS, in the Financials.
Avid’s website: http://www.avidbio.com
Looking at Avid’s rev history, the 5qtrs ended 4-30-16 averaged ~$11mm/Qtr. <=those rev’s were ALL from AVID I (Frankin).
FY17Q1(qe Jul31) was $5.6mm (due to 3rd-party testing delays) and Q2(qe Oct31, rep. ~Dec8) “will exceed $20mm”, averaging ~$13mm/qtr, possibly more depending on how far Q2 “exceeds $20mm”.
13x4=52
15x4=60
17x4=68
In the 9-8-16 CC/Q&S Paul Lytle said this: “We recognized $44mm in revenues during FY16 (fye 4-30-16) and that all came from our original Franklin facility. In March this year, we commissioned our new Myford facility, which is built for late stage Phase III clinical & commercial production. We are currently going through the motions of multiple process validation runs and those runs right now are built into our financial projections of the $50-55mm, with our goal of turning those process validation runs, which is the final step before submitting something to the FDA under preapproval inspection in terms of producing commercial quantities for those clients. So this year is really a building year in terms of building those process validation runs for our clients, and then we’re hopeful that those will turn into commercial supply needs in future FY’s.” http://tinyurl.com/jydtkoy
Avid II (Myford) revenues were coming in as of 9-8-16, albeit via “mult. process validation runs” for clientS (<=note plural per PL). We don’t know when the FDA allows those to turn into Commercial Runs, but the trendline on Avid II revenue contributions to total Avid revenues is clearly UP – they’ve told us “up to $40mm per year” when Avid II is really humming.
Updated PPHM REVS-BY-QTR TABLE, now thru FY17'Q1(qe 7-31-16), per the 7-31-16 10-Q ( http://tinyurl.com/jmy77g3 ) issued 9-8-16.
• Total Revs since May’06: ($179.2mm/Avid + $24.1mm/Govt + $2.5mm/Lic.) = $205.8mm
• 9-8-16: FY'17 (May'16-Apr'17) Avid revs guidance $50-55mm (Committed B/L=$71mm).
• Deferred-Revs at 7-31-16 total $21.5mm, UP from $10.0mm at 4-30-16.
• Cust.Deposits at 7-31-16 total $21.7mm, DOWN from $24.2mm at 4-30-16.
• Inventories at 7-31-16 total $25.3mm, UP from $16.2mm at 4-30-16.
• Avid’s Gross-Profit over last 4 qtrs: $19.2mm on revs of $40.6mm (GP%=47%)
• Recall, Avid Rev$ from Gov’t DTRA Contract work (6/30/08 – 4/15/11, totaling $24.15mm), went into GOVT-REVS, not AVID-REVS, in the Financials.
Avid’s website: http://www.avidbio.com
AVID PROFITABILITY (GROSS*) BY QTR:
QTR Avid-Rev$ CostofMfg$ Gross-Profit$ GP%
FY13Q1 7-31-12 4,135,000 2,024,000 2,111,000 51%
FY13Q2 10-31-12 6,061,000 3,703,000 2,358,000 39%
FY13Q3 1-31-13 6,961,000 3,651,000 3,310,000 47%
FY13Q4 4-30-13 4,176,000 3,217,000 959,000 23%
FY14Q1 7-31-13 4,581,000 2,670,000 1,911,000 42%
FY14Q2 10-31-13 7,354,000 4,195,000 3,159,000 43%
FY14Q3 1-31-14 3,885,000 2,416,000 1,469,000 38%
FY14Q4 4-30-14 6,474,000 3,829,000 2,645,000 41%
FY15Q1 7-31-14 5,496,000 3,583,000 1,913,000 35%
FY15Q2 10-31-14 6,263,000 4,139,000 2,124,000 34%
FY15Q3 1-31-15 5,677,000 3,113,000 2,564,000 45%
FY15Q4 4-30-15 9,308,000 4,758,000 4,550,000 49%
FY16Q1 7-31-15 9,379,000 4,608,000 4,771,000 51%
FY16Q2 10-31-15 9,523,000 4,741,000 4,782,000 50%
FY16Q3 1-31-16 6,672,000 3,896,000 2,776,000 42%
FY16Q4 4-30-16 18,783,000 9,721,000 9,062,000 48%
FY17Q1 7-31-16 5,609,000 3,062,000 2,547,000 45%
FY17Q2 10-31-16 “we remain on track to gen. revs in excess of $20mm in Q2.”
