To Broken 80 + ALL....
it wasn't so much that you made a mistake...it was the fact that you as well as many investors felt that Nokia would not resort to these stall tactics. You based this on management's representations that the ericy settlement was the defining trigger event for those revenues to flow....
By the way they have not changed their position.
In every setback we have rebounded to higher levels....
RECENT EXAMPLES...
Four weeks ago we faced a set back on 6/24 the stockdropped to a low of 21.33 after a hedge fund manager[Tice] called it a good short...just a few days before we were trading at as high as 26.70.... 3 days after hitting 21.33 we opened at 25.01 on 6/27.
We then established a trading range of from 23.10 to 25.67 for 11days before breaking to an intraday high of 26.25 on July 16.
April ... similar episode of weakness provoked by mgm't option sales ... stock dipped to a low of 18.68... Apr-11-03
5 trading days later it closed at 21.35...then it established a trading range of 21 to 23 for the next two weeks .....closing at 23.59 by the second week .....
6 trading days later it hit an intraday high of 27.20.
It took 20 trading days to go from an intraday low of 18.68.
to an intraday high of 27.20.
Your mistake was not in your analysis of the fundamentals....it was in your desire to try to trade the swings on margin. You have to be very disciplined to trade....there is no room for emotion.....
If you were not on margin and had the available cash you might have been doing some buying down here....As difficult as it is you must detach yourself from the fear of the moment....and ask yourself ... after a hard drop which is greater the downside or the upside....ps TECHNICAL ANALYSIS is also very helpful.
Learning said.... "My problem turned out to be pretty much what I described above, i.e., load up too much on margin when I was all excited about finding a winner, and then dumping it all [often at a loss) on the first consolidation pause. When it resumed showing the strength I always thought it had, I went chasing it and the cycle repeated."
If you are going to use your margin account do not put yourself in a position where you can be called.....
I own this stock from 10.18 to the mid 22's[recent purchases] .....I missed the first drop in the 17's but got back in yesterday and today.....buying overtime it weakened up....buying in the 17's +18's. On paper my portfolio dropped in value by much more than I would like as my largest single position is in IDCC....My portfolio will again increase in value and more as I believe these purchases will average down my recent more costly purchases.
The news is out....it's by in large priced in ... selling at this point ... would be like running a marathon,....seeing the finish line..... and quitting..... Because an obstacle fell in the road..... You feel certain that if you have patience and use your head you can win.....but you just give up.... It happens.
There are some longs that sold....I believe they will be back.
ps....We are going through a basing period....The worst technical damage has already taken place...I will look at the TA FURTHER to get a better sense of our trading range.
TOUGH TIMES NEVER LAST..... TOUGH PEOPLE DO....
MY THOUGHTS AND PRAYERS ARE WITH YOU ...ALLEY.
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