ziploc, not directing this at you personally, it's just that your question in the ref post sparked me to share something on the chance it might be helpful to somebody else. It's gonna be a personal saga from an old horse that has been rode hard for a long time and then put out to pasture, so be warned and click ahead right now before I waste your time with drivel. It's also very much IMHO.
Good chance that when an investor starts asking "What is the worst case?" for things in his portfolio they are asking the wrong question. And they will be inclined to listen to a lot of wrong answers to that wrong question. What happens next is not likely to get done based on that investor's best judgment.
A better question might be "Am I comfortable with the level of risk in my portfolio right now?". If that answer is no, then begin to ask why, and then begin figuring out what the smart alternatives are for allowing you to get comfortable.
What I'm suggesting is that individual investors like us tend to have emotional swings, and we let those emotional swings get involved in our investment decision process. Sometimes we get carried away with positive news, only listen to the bullish cheering, and take more risk than we probably should, or would in a rational moment.
When that happens we are set up for a swing in the other direction on the first bad news that we cannot ignore. Often the real source of that "bad news" is really the over zealous risk we took on the "Up" swing. So what I'm saying is take a look at the risk, and figure out how to fix that before allowing that concern to totally control your thinking on the investments.
I found out early on that I could not make rational buy, hold, sell decisions when the margin dog was snapping at my wallet. I needed to learn how to use margin, or I was not going to ever make any money in this game. My problem turned out to be pretty much what I described above, i.e., load up too much on margin when I was all excited about finding a winner, and then dumping it all(often at a loss) on the first consolidation pause. When it resumed showing the strength I always thought it had, I went chasing it and the cycle repeated.
Had a little talk with myself after taking note of my track record in the first year or so of that foolishness. It was not a polite conversation. More like "Self, you stupid jerk! You are losing all of MY money. Stop doing that! Or our wife is gonna kill us both. Got it?". LOL! Lot's of deep dd, careful analysis of fundamentals, and elimination of the margin dog changed the results. Those personal adjustments allowed me stay in touch with the facts that I can verify no matter what the market is doing this day, week, or month,.. or what the chatter is about in the media and on these boards.
My basis for the IDCC investment is based in the 3G fundamentals I think I see. Computing technology is converging with telecom technology at this point in time, and high speed wireless data communication capability will be a big part of whatever happens.
InterDigital appears to be well positioned to participate in that "change wave", the company recognizes the potential that opportunity affords, and significant progress toward achieving success can be verified(i.e., the demo at Cannes early this year, the patents assigned, and the agreements, involvement in industry standards, associations, and partnerships in place). I'm comfortable holding, and adding to my IDCC position when I have the cold hard cash, no matter what happens with 2G, or in the stock market. Let's see what 3G brings for IDCC in the coming years.
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