Expectations regarding the September conferences.
I'll risk putting my head above the parapet.
1. I expect (near) final data from Direct trial. I expect Method B data to be highly impressive. Following that data, I expect formal confirmation of the trial partnerships to be announced. Three different cancer indications, probably all involving Direct. All that to occur in London on 21st. Possibly a strategic partnership with BMS.
2. I doubt that we will receive much new information on L phase 3, other than being informed of a slow event rate, with data still accruing. Which, I will interpret positively in terms of the likely eventual outcome. I'm prepared to be pleasantly surprised however!
If No. 1 happens, it will be a major public affirmation and legitimation of the Direct platform. And possibly the trigger that NW needs to move back in to the market. At the moment, he is disinclined to draw attention to his existing investment, and I don't think he will renew buying yet due to the inevitable brickbats that will come his way ('throwing good money after bad') from UK commentators, particularly Murdoch organs such as the Times, and from his own investors. On the back of positive conference announcements, however, I think he is highly likely to step back in. After all, he is just another long-suffering long, who believes in the science and its potential, like many on this board. The difference is that due to his high public profile, he has to time a return to the market carefully, and he is also aware of his market-moving impact.
I'm contemplating a modest increase in my holding just before the conferences, in expectation of good things. Hell, if we get no good news, it's not going to reverse much anyway.
Purely my own view and perspective!
