While this forum is quite hard to navigate compared to other forums, there certainly are seemingly more informed posters here who can understand a little more about the approach Anavex is taking in its quest to improve the quality of life for those who suffer from Alzheimers.
The now 2 dramatic share price drops following major scientific conferences during which novel data is presented in the phase 2a study Anavex is conducting seem to be perfectly timed to sully any progress the company is making to a lay investor. Yet despite these drops, nothing in terms of the positive data has changed - placebo-control arm or not - the data Anavex has is positive.
From 5 weeks until 26 weeks later - (the first 5 weeks were the pharmacokinetic studies when patients were put on different forumlations of 2-73) - there essentially was no decline in the MMSE score for patients with mild cognitive impairment - the curve seemed to indicate the opposite. For mild-moderate alzheimer's - there seemed to be a slightly negative downward slope of the mean MMSE from 5-26 weeks - was it > 3 points.....no. The average decline in the MMSE score for patient's with Alzheimer's disease is 3 points - Aricept does not appreciably improve the longterm decline in the MMSE score.
So lets just say - after 52 weeks of the study - all of the patients with mild cognitive impairment had the same or > 3 point improvement of the MMSE and most/all of the patients with mild-moderate Alzheimer's disease have < 3 point decline (many, in fact are only at or within 1-2 points declined from their basline). At that point - is the only argument going to be that the data is meaningless.
This is a very early study - it is a safety and tolerability study and perhaps a proof of concept study. The data thus far further indicates that a larger phase 2/3 study isn't just indicated, it is mandated considering how Alzheimers devastates people now and more so in the future. Other larger pharmaceutical companies will continue to see the data for what it is - the share price fluctuations....they are just that, fluctuations.
All my opinion only.
