If ALDW can be purchased tomorrow (Monday), I'll be a buyer. While I've got dry powder available without using margin (borrowing), I happen to like holding onto more cash than I do usually. I can't explain why this is but it's probably tied into my having profited so handsomely of late that I've got to wonder when the balloon will have to let a little air pressure out.. So, if this is, indeed, a toppy market moment, then it might be smart were we all to hold onto some cash.
To provide a bit of perspective here, I'll say I've got a bit more than 10% of my cash on the sidelines.
At the same time, if I can pick up a few hundred units of ALDW on the very cheap as defined by a price in the $9.35 range or below---I'll be marching onward.
This will not suit every investor's taste but it works for me. I'm so sure this is going to pay off very well, I've willing to step out of the comfort zone slightly and follow my instincts and brain.
Two things stand out to me right now:
1. NGL got an upgrade a couple of days ago with a much-respected analytical group predicting NGL will hit $18.
2. Friday afternoon, ALDW issued a statement declaring there'd been an electrical outage resulting in throughput disruption at the refinery. However, the CEO added that it won't prevent the handing out of a distribution for the quarter. Normal throughput is 73,000 barrels per day. The revised projection is 70,000. This is about a 4% reduction. I'd been expecting a distribution of 75 cents so if the distribution should drop to 72 cents, that's terrific. As I think about picking up 200-300 more units tomorrow, I'm thinking that if I pay $9.35, then after subtracting a very modest distribution pending, I'm getting those units for $9 flat or less. That is fire-sale cheap.
Still, I could be wrong about this stock. The last thing I'd like is for others to abandon their fears in lieu of adopting my level of risk tolerance. Longer term, that approach might not work for someone else. So please listen to your feelings, your instincts, and allow that others with deeper pockets may be coming from a different place.
My wish is to coax folks but not manhandle them. Walk your own walk, by all means, and respect your personal decisions for these are your best guides for sure.
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