AI
Thursday, February 25, 2016 8:20:58 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 02/24 2016 EOD
Today was a real oddity which started with a normal "open high and fall" routine followed by a claw back up to get more-or-less flat. The oddity came with a one-minute high-volume size cent rise and another ten minutes that got to $1.23 on very low volume. Volume was flat with yesterday and the net result was as one would expect on the traditional TA stuff - an apparent possible reversal beginning - but increased weakness in my non-traditional stuff, notably a sixth consecutive day of lower VWAP, and a good-sized drop too.
I posted (see link below) around 15:00 I thought it was a dead-cat bounce and I stick with it for now.
There were no pre-market trades.
The day opened with an unknown trade of 543 shares for $1.12 and traded as low as $1.11 on a total of ~13.8K. 9:32 did 3K $1.09/$1.11 and 9:35 did 10K $1.10/11 and next 2K $1.10. B/a went balanced, 4.7K each side, $1.10/12 and began declining-volume trading there, going to no/low-volume by 9:40 and dropping to $1.09/10 at 9:48 with b/a growing to ~4:1 there by 9:50. The period ended at 9:52 for $1.10. 9:53-10:18, after a no-trade minute, did 1.3K $1.11 and began a long, slow grind lower with a series of big-volume down, no/low-volume flat a couple minutes, big-volume down, no/low-volume flat a couple minutes, ... and hit $1.06 to end the period. 10:19-10:44 began with ~19.8K $1.06->$1.08 and went to $1.09 on 4K at 10:22 and saw a b/a ~6.5:1 $1.08/9 with no/low-volume $1.08/9 following to end at $1.08/9. 10:45-12:05, after a no-trade six minutes, did 200 shares at $1.10 and b/a went ~2.2:1 $1.09/$1.10 with no/low-volume trading there and ended at $1.10. 12:06-12:42, after a no-trade three minutes, moved to $1.11 on 138 shares and began no/low-volume $1.10/1 and ended at $1.11. 12:43-13:31 did 101 shares $1.12 and began no/low-volume $1.11/2 and ended at $1.12. 13:32-13:59 began with 100 shares $1.14 and began a no/low-volume rise hitting $1.15 at 13:39 to continue no/low-volume $1.14xx/$1.15 and $1.14/5 starting at 13:55 and ended at $1.15. 14:00-14:35, after a no-trade minute, did 52.1K $1.14->$1.20->$1.17, dropped back to $1.17 next minute and did five more minutes doing low-volume back up to $1.20 for two minutes and then low-volume to $1.21/2 at 14:06, hit $1.23 on 310 shares at 14:11, and then started no/low-volume $1.20/2, 1.22/3 at 14:25 and ended at $1.23. 14:36-15:48 began with a ~7.1K drop to $1.20 followed by 6.9K at $1.20/1 and on no/low-volume dropped to $1.18 by 14:49 and began very low volume $1.18/9 while b/a was 14:1 $1.18/9, moved back up to $1.19/$1.20 at 14:58 and went very low/no-volume there (mostly $1.19 and $1.19xx), and ended at $1.19/20. 15:49-16:00 began the EOD volatility with ~8K $1.19->$1.21 followed by ~14.2K $1.20->$1.17 in one minute and began $1.18/20 low/medium-volume $1.18/21 and ended the period and day with a 736 share buy for $1.20.
There was one AH sell of 11,200 shares for $1.1428.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify) there were 12 larger trades (>=5K & 3 4K+) totaling 105,044, 25.76% of day's volume, with a $1.1307 VWAP, lower than the day's overall VWAP.
I think this was just a dead-cat bounce because there was no sign of upward pressure until a 51.2K 14:01 minute took out all the offers and ran from $1.14 (flat with yesterday's close) to $1.20. That lifted the trading range and low/no-volume in that elevated range finished out the day. No signs of strength other than that one minute. Prior to that minute the high was $1.15, right at resistance/support.
Note the buy percentage prior to that time and then at the end of the 14:35 period. Also note the inability of the buy percentage to hold the gains that minute provided.
On my one-year chart the 10 and 20-day SMAs, $1.3365 and $1.3528 ($1.3495 and $1.3548 yesterday), continued the fall began two days past. The 50-day SMA is still falling, at $1.3113 ($1.3149 yesterday).
The oscillators I watch, which yesterday had all weakened and were in oversold but for RSI, all improved and only full stochastic is still oversold. Since most of these are close-based and some volume-sensitive, this is not surprising. Close was artificially high (a big AH traded was ~$1.14) and volume essentially matched yesterday's this behavior is what I would expect.
A truer picture might be seen in the VWAP in my non-traditional stuff below.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.1567 and $1.5364 ($1,1689 and $1.5826 yesterday) continue to converge and produce a falling mid-point due to faster rate of decline of the upper limit.
All in, if not for the volume the traditional TA might suggest a rise in the works. The volume weakens that thought. Adding in the intra-day behavior and buy percentage behavior and I think it's even weaker. My "dead-cat bounce" belief expressed around 15:00 today remains intact.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions with short percentage going even further below my desired range (needs re-check) for the third consecutive day and buy percentage still a bit below what I think is necessary for sustained appreciation. See above for why I suspect this buy percentage - a result of mainly one huge minute that took out all the offers in a six cent rise.
The spread remains almost identical to yesterday - outrageous - and was produced by a hybrid of our "normal" behaviors - a six cent drop from the open, with a long, slow, careful(?) recovery to essentially flat and then a big one-minute pop up six cents ($1.14->$1.20) followed by some very low-volume trades up around $1.23 for a few minutes. In aggregate, being in a leg down I thinks this suggests more weakness to come near-term, sans a catalyst.
VWAP movement, in spite of what the traditional charts would suggest (beginning of reversal?), weakened for the sixth consecutive day and it continued with a good-sized move in spite of the big one-minute intra-day move up of six cents followed by another few pennies.
All in, I hold to the "dead-cat bounce" conclusion.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
Today was a real oddity which started with a normal "open high and fall" routine followed by a claw back up to get more-or-less flat. The oddity came with a one-minute high-volume size cent rise and another ten minutes that got to $1.23 on very low volume. Volume was flat with yesterday and the net result was as one would expect on the traditional TA stuff - an apparent possible reversal beginning - but increased weakness in my non-traditional stuff, notably a sixth consecutive day of lower VWAP, and a good-sized drop too.
I posted (see link below) around 15:00 I thought it was a dead-cat bounce and I stick with it for now.
There were no pre-market trades.
The day opened with an unknown trade of 543 shares for $1.12 and traded as low as $1.11 on a total of ~13.8K. 9:32 did 3K $1.09/$1.11 and 9:35 did 10K $1.10/11 and next 2K $1.10. B/a went balanced, 4.7K each side, $1.10/12 and began declining-volume trading there, going to no/low-volume by 9:40 and dropping to $1.09/10 at 9:48 with b/a growing to ~4:1 there by 9:50. The period ended at 9:52 for $1.10. 9:53-10:18, after a no-trade minute, did 1.3K $1.11 and began a long, slow grind lower with a series of big-volume down, no/low-volume flat a couple minutes, big-volume down, no/low-volume flat a couple minutes, ... and hit $1.06 to end the period. 10:19-10:44 began with ~19.8K $1.06->$1.08 and went to $1.09 on 4K at 10:22 and saw a b/a ~6.5:1 $1.08/9 with no/low-volume $1.08/9 following to end at $1.08/9. 10:45-12:05, after a no-trade six minutes, did 200 shares at $1.10 and b/a went ~2.2:1 $1.09/$1.10 with no/low-volume trading there and ended at $1.10. 12:06-12:42, after a no-trade three minutes, moved to $1.11 on 138 shares and began no/low-volume $1.10/1 and ended at $1.11. 12:43-13:31 did 101 shares $1.12 and began no/low-volume $1.11/2 and ended at $1.12. 13:32-13:59 began with 100 shares $1.14 and began a no/low-volume rise hitting $1.15 at 13:39 to continue no/low-volume $1.14xx/$1.15 and $1.14/5 starting at 13:55 and ended at $1.15. 14:00-14:35, after a no-trade minute, did 52.1K $1.14->$1.20->$1.17, dropped back to $1.17 next minute and did five more minutes doing low-volume back up to $1.20 for two minutes and then low-volume to $1.21/2 at 14:06, hit $1.23 on 310 shares at 14:11, and then started no/low-volume $1.20/2, 1.22/3 at 14:25 and ended at $1.23. 14:36-15:48 began with a ~7.1K drop to $1.20 followed by 6.9K at $1.20/1 and on no/low-volume dropped to $1.18 by 14:49 and began very low volume $1.18/9 while b/a was 14:1 $1.18/9, moved back up to $1.19/$1.20 at 14:58 and went very low/no-volume there (mostly $1.19 and $1.19xx), and ended at $1.19/20. 15:49-16:00 began the EOD volatility with ~8K $1.19->$1.21 followed by ~14.2K $1.20->$1.17 in one minute and began $1.18/20 low/medium-volume $1.18/21 and ended the period and day with a 736 share buy for $1.20.
There was one AH sell of 11,200 shares for $1.1428.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify) there were 12 larger trades (>=5K & 3 4K+) totaling 105,044, 25.76% of day's volume, with a $1.1307 VWAP, lower than the day's overall VWAP.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:Ending Period Period Period Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High Dollar Val. VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
09:52 72086 $1.0900 $1.1200 $79,398.42 $1.1014 17.68% 9.98% Incl 09:30 $1.1124 9,324
09:32 $1.0900 7,600 10,100
09:35 $1.1100 5,000 $1.1000 4,200
10:18 41539 $1.0600 $1.1100 $44,911.64 $1.0812 10.19% 13.06% Incl 10:03 $1.0800 6,000
10:44 45644 $1.0600 $1.0900 $49,222.35 $1.0784 11.19% 24.61% Incl 10:19 $1.0600 4,400 $1.0700 13,694
12:05 17573 $1.0900 $1.1000 $19,264.69 $1.0963 4.31% 28.16%
12:42 14800 $1.1000 $1.1100 $16,364.88 $1.1057 3.63% 29.95%
13:31 15112 $1.1100 $1.1200 $16,863.51 $1.1159 3.71% 30.93%
13:59 9700 $1.1400 $1.1500 $11,129.14 $1.1473 2.38% 34.22%
14:35 97364 $1.1400 $1.2300 $116,732.25 $1.1989 23.88% 47.20% Incl 14:01 $1.1999 14,000 $1.2000 14,926
15:48 33219 $1.1801 $1.2253 $39,922.36 $1.2018 8.15% 47.86% Incl 14:36 $1.2253 4,600
16:00 46842 $1.1750 $1.2100 $55,866.54 $1.1927 11.49% 45.86%
16:24 11200 $1.1428 $1.1428 $12,799.36 $1.1428 2.75% 44.60% Incl 16:24 $1.1428 11,200
On my minimal chart we broke the trend of five consecutive down days with a higher close, but on essentially flat volume. We are still "pushing" the lower Bollinger limit for the third consecutive day. We also opened below and closed above the potential support of $1.15/6, but again note the flat volume.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today -8.94% -5.36% -5.38% 5.26% -0.15%
Prior -6.82% -7.44% -2.26% -9.52% 2.75%
I think this was just a dead-cat bounce because there was no sign of upward pressure until a 51.2K 14:01 minute took out all the offers and ran from $1.14 (flat with yesterday's close) to $1.20. That lifted the trading range and low/no-volume in that elevated range finished out the day. No signs of strength other than that one minute. Prior to that minute the high was $1.15, right at resistance/support.
Note the buy percentage prior to that time and then at the end of the 14:35 period. Also note the inability of the buy percentage to hold the gains that minute provided.
On my one-year chart the 10 and 20-day SMAs, $1.3365 and $1.3528 ($1.3495 and $1.3548 yesterday), continued the fall began two days past. The 50-day SMA is still falling, at $1.3113 ($1.3149 yesterday).
The oscillators I watch, which yesterday had all weakened and were in oversold but for RSI, all improved and only full stochastic is still oversold. Since most of these are close-based and some volume-sensitive, this is not surprising. Close was artificially high (a big AH traded was ~$1.14) and volume essentially matched yesterday's this behavior is what I would expect.
A truer picture might be seen in the VWAP in my non-traditional stuff below.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.1567 and $1.5364 ($1,1689 and $1.5826 yesterday) continue to converge and produce a falling mid-point due to faster rate of decline of the upper limit.
All in, if not for the volume the traditional TA might suggest a rise in the works. The volume weakens that thought. Adding in the intra-day behavior and buy percentage behavior and I think it's even weaker. My "dead-cat bounce" belief expressed around 15:00 today remains intact.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions with short percentage going even further below my desired range (needs re-check) for the third consecutive day and buy percentage still a bit below what I think is necessary for sustained appreciation. See above for why I suspect this buy percentage - a result of mainly one huge minute that took out all the offers in a six cent rise.
The spread remains almost identical to yesterday - outrageous - and was produced by a hybrid of our "normal" behaviors - a six cent drop from the open, with a long, slow, careful(?) recovery to essentially flat and then a big one-minute pop up six cents ($1.14->$1.20) followed by some very low-volume trades up around $1.23 for a few minutes. In aggregate, being in a leg down I thinks this suggests more weakness to come near-term, sans a catalyst.
VWAP movement, in spite of what the traditional charts would suggest (beginning of reversal?), weakened for the sixth consecutive day and it continued with a good-sized move in spite of the big one-minute intra-day move up of six cents followed by another few pennies.
All in, I hold to the "dead-cat bounce" conclusion.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
