AI
Wednesday, February 24, 2016 9:23:12 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 02/23 2016 EOD
Yesterday in the traditional TA section I said { All in, nothing good here. Sans a catalyst I don't see a reversal coming yet, nor a cessation of the down leg. }. On my non-traditional stuff I said { VWAP movement is really nasty now. I wish I could suggest that the volume combined with four weakening days suggests a bottom, but I can't bring myself to do that.
All in, I won't hang my hat on short covering so I see nothing suggesting a reversal here. }
I think I should have been more aggressive in my assessment. Today would have made the more aggressive statements right on the mark I think.
Well, today was different: open low and go lower! Maybe was set up by last night's 2K $1.26 AH trade that had a matching pre-market today four trades totaling 2K $1.28/$1.30. At 10:16 61,982 shares (a single trade that was 92.8% of the prior volume of 66,790) traded at $1.20. This was apparently the reason for the initial low open - an MM wanted to service a "good customer" with a $1.20 order (classified as a sell)? After that trade some rise in price was ... "allowed"?
Some of my stuff below shows the effect of backing out that exceptional trade.
The briefest summary for today that I can think of is "Hit The Bid Festival", albeit the volumes suggest it wasn't very festive at all. After the 10:16 ~62K trade that was the market behavior regardless of price level.
The intra-day breakdown should show this (assuming I guess right as I write this) by having VWAPs closer to the lows of the periods than the highs for most of the day.
A little more detail: open low, rise a tiny bit, flattish, drop some, flattish, drop some, ... until 15:47 and then CRASH! Hit $1.12 at 15:59.
The highest buy percentage after 10:15's 29.59% was 15:59's 25.2% and next highest was 24.86% at 15:45. Lowest after 9:45 was ... you don't wanna know! But I've included my 15-minute readings below.
There were four pre-market trades totaling 2K (Odd? Same as last nights 2K at $1.26 AH trade), all at $1.30 but 200 for $1.28.
The day opened with a sell of 6,718 shares for $1.23 and in the next two minutes traded as low as $1.17 on ~21.3K and the next minute bounded back to $1.20 on ~13.4K. As b/a ~1:4.5 $1.20/2 appeared there were no more trades until 9:42 did ~3.8K $1.19/$1.20. B/a went to ~1:2.4 $1.18/$1.20 and we saw ~5.6K $1.20 at 9:43. B/a $1.18/$1.20 became fairly balanced around 3K on each side and trading started, barely, no (mostly) and low-volume $1.20. B/a moved to ~1:14.3 $1.20/$1.22 and no (mostly) and low-volume began there. By 10:04 it was $1.20/1 and nothing happened until the next period start. This one ended at $1.20 at 10:13. 10:14-10:22, after a no-trades two minutes, did a single trade of 61,982 shares (92.8% of the prior volume of 66,790 plus an odd-lot 50 shares for $1.2001) at $1.20. There were no more trades through 10:22. 10:23-12:24 began no/low-volume $1.20/2, interrupted by 10:31's ~1.3K $1.23/4. 10:43 started $1.20/1, interrupted by 11:54's 1.2K $1.21/2, and ended at $1.20. 12:25-13:08 began with a 15.1K $1.20->$1.18 and two minutes later did 2.1K $1.18/$1.21 and then, with b/a ~4.75/1 $1.18/20, began no (mostly) and low-volume $1.18/20. $1.19 x 700 bid came in at 12:46 but as with the $1.18 bid, most trades were hitting the bid. The period ended at $1.19. 13:09-14:23 began with $1.19->$1.18 on ~18.9K and b/a went ~2.1:1 $1.17/8 to start low/no-volume $1.17 (matching low from early on) to $1.18. The period ended at $1.17. 14:24-14:54 began with 10K $1.17->$1.16 (new intra-day low touching one of our potential price support points, $1.15/6) to begin more of the same at $1.16/7 and ended there on ~6.7K. 14:55-15:45 did 600 shares $1.17/8, did it again two minutes later on 7.4K and had a low quantity reasonably balanced b/a there, where it traded until 15:33/:34 did ~3.3K $1.17->$1.16 and then went low-volume in that range to end the period at $1.16/7.
15:46-16:00, began the EOD volatility with rising volume swings $1.18->$1.15 the first two minutes, hit $1.14 at 15:51, $1.13 at 15:57, $1.12 at 15:59, and ended the period and day with a 760 share sell for $1.14.
There were three AH trades totaling 425 shares: $1.16 x 125, $1.14 x 300.
Including the opening trade (closing didn't qualify), there were 11 larger trades (>=5K & 1 4K+) totaling 131,031, 32.08% of day's volume, with a $1.1900 VWAP. Excluding the exceptional 61,982 share trade from day's and larger blocks' volumes, the larger trades would account for 19.93% of day's volume and VWAP of the larger trades would be $1.1810.
Excluding the opening trade, there were 10 larger trades totaling 124,313, 30.44% of day's volume, with a $1.1878 VWAP. Excluding the exceptional 61,982 share trade from day's and larger blocks' volumes, the larger trades would account for 17.99% of day's volume and VWAP of the larger trades would be $1.1757.
N.B. If we exclude today's exceptionally large ~62K trade the volume change would be -12.85% instead of the +2.75% we got. I consider this important because real outliers severely skew the metrics they affect. Even if I decide to accept the volume unaltered I should at least be aware of what things would look like sans the outlier.
If we use the unaltered volume increase we must conclude that the down leg won't end because it's not enough of an increase to suggest a capitulation bottom and it continues the volume "cupping" pattern as we trend lower.
If we use the altered figure, things are a bit less clear. We wouldn't call a bottom but we could reasonably suggest that a bottoming may have begun. We would, of course, look for other clues to assess the validity of that.
E.g. if we look at the recent history we note that every longer down move results in new all-time lows. That would suggest we will challenge $1 and penetrate that level.
On my one-year chart I'm feeling lazy today and the overall effect of a close where it was today should be obvious. So I'll be briefer.
The 10 and 20-day SMAs, $1.3495 and $1.3548 ($1.3705 and $1.3588 yesterday), continued the fall began yesterday.
The 50-day SMA is still falling, at $1.3149 ($1.3209 yesterday).
The oscillators I watch all weakened and all that have oversold markers are there but for RSI which is ~1 point above it and should get there tomorrow.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1,1689 and $1.5826 ($1.2191 and $1.5540 yesterday) and increase the rate of divergence and descent of the mid-point.
All in, "Ain't no Sunshine.
Note that if the 61,982 sell is excluded from the day's volume the percentages for buy and sell would be 29.56% and 64.91% respectively.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, good in that it suggests normalcy, but the short percentage is below my desired range (needs re-check) and buy percentage moves even further from what's needed for sustained appreciation.
Not that the short percentage may have been affected by the ~62K trade, which was likely an inter/intra-broker trade, which would generate a short flag. If we take that quantity out of the day's volume the short percentage would be 35.70%, right at the bottom of my desired range. This would offer a small glimmer of hope that we could see something positive near-term. But ...
The spread went from yesterday's "extreme territory" to "outrageous territory". Being in a down trend this suggests more to go.
VWAP movement continues down for the fifth consecutive day.
All in, no suggestion we've neared a bottom unless we want to discount that big trade and take the resulting short percentage as a "tell". I choose to not do so.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
Yesterday in the traditional TA section I said { All in, nothing good here. Sans a catalyst I don't see a reversal coming yet, nor a cessation of the down leg. }. On my non-traditional stuff I said { VWAP movement is really nasty now. I wish I could suggest that the volume combined with four weakening days suggests a bottom, but I can't bring myself to do that.
All in, I won't hang my hat on short covering so I see nothing suggesting a reversal here. }
I think I should have been more aggressive in my assessment. Today would have made the more aggressive statements right on the mark I think.
Well, today was different: open low and go lower! Maybe was set up by last night's 2K $1.26 AH trade that had a matching pre-market today four trades totaling 2K $1.28/$1.30. At 10:16 61,982 shares (a single trade that was 92.8% of the prior volume of 66,790) traded at $1.20. This was apparently the reason for the initial low open - an MM wanted to service a "good customer" with a $1.20 order (classified as a sell)? After that trade some rise in price was ... "allowed"?
Some of my stuff below shows the effect of backing out that exceptional trade.
The briefest summary for today that I can think of is "Hit The Bid Festival", albeit the volumes suggest it wasn't very festive at all. After the 10:16 ~62K trade that was the market behavior regardless of price level.
The intra-day breakdown should show this (assuming I guess right as I write this) by having VWAPs closer to the lows of the periods than the highs for most of the day.
A little more detail: open low, rise a tiny bit, flattish, drop some, flattish, drop some, ... until 15:47 and then CRASH! Hit $1.12 at 15:59.
The highest buy percentage after 10:15's 29.59% was 15:59's 25.2% and next highest was 24.86% at 15:45. Lowest after 9:45 was ... you don't wanna know! But I've included my 15-minute readings below.
There were four pre-market trades totaling 2K (Odd? Same as last nights 2K at $1.26 AH trade), all at $1.30 but 200 for $1.28.
The day opened with a sell of 6,718 shares for $1.23 and in the next two minutes traded as low as $1.17 on ~21.3K and the next minute bounded back to $1.20 on ~13.4K. As b/a ~1:4.5 $1.20/2 appeared there were no more trades until 9:42 did ~3.8K $1.19/$1.20. B/a went to ~1:2.4 $1.18/$1.20 and we saw ~5.6K $1.20 at 9:43. B/a $1.18/$1.20 became fairly balanced around 3K on each side and trading started, barely, no (mostly) and low-volume $1.20. B/a moved to ~1:14.3 $1.20/$1.22 and no (mostly) and low-volume began there. By 10:04 it was $1.20/1 and nothing happened until the next period start. This one ended at $1.20 at 10:13. 10:14-10:22, after a no-trades two minutes, did a single trade of 61,982 shares (92.8% of the prior volume of 66,790 plus an odd-lot 50 shares for $1.2001) at $1.20. There were no more trades through 10:22. 10:23-12:24 began no/low-volume $1.20/2, interrupted by 10:31's ~1.3K $1.23/4. 10:43 started $1.20/1, interrupted by 11:54's 1.2K $1.21/2, and ended at $1.20. 12:25-13:08 began with a 15.1K $1.20->$1.18 and two minutes later did 2.1K $1.18/$1.21 and then, with b/a ~4.75/1 $1.18/20, began no (mostly) and low-volume $1.18/20. $1.19 x 700 bid came in at 12:46 but as with the $1.18 bid, most trades were hitting the bid. The period ended at $1.19. 13:09-14:23 began with $1.19->$1.18 on ~18.9K and b/a went ~2.1:1 $1.17/8 to start low/no-volume $1.17 (matching low from early on) to $1.18. The period ended at $1.17. 14:24-14:54 began with 10K $1.17->$1.16 (new intra-day low touching one of our potential price support points, $1.15/6) to begin more of the same at $1.16/7 and ended there on ~6.7K. 14:55-15:45 did 600 shares $1.17/8, did it again two minutes later on 7.4K and had a low quantity reasonably balanced b/a there, where it traded until 15:33/:34 did ~3.3K $1.17->$1.16 and then went low-volume in that range to end the period at $1.16/7.
15:46-16:00, began the EOD volatility with rising volume swings $1.18->$1.15 the first two minutes, hit $1.14 at 15:51, $1.13 at 15:57, $1.12 at 15:59, and ended the period and day with a 760 share sell for $1.14.
There were three AH trades totaling 425 shares: $1.16 x 125, $1.14 x 300.
Including the opening trade (closing didn't qualify), there were 11 larger trades (>=5K & 1 4K+) totaling 131,031, 32.08% of day's volume, with a $1.1900 VWAP. Excluding the exceptional 61,982 share trade from day's and larger blocks' volumes, the larger trades would account for 19.93% of day's volume and VWAP of the larger trades would be $1.1810.
Excluding the opening trade, there were 10 larger trades totaling 124,313, 30.44% of day's volume, with a $1.1878 VWAP. Excluding the exceptional 61,982 share trade from day's and larger blocks' volumes, the larger trades would account for 17.99% of day's volume and VWAP of the larger trades would be $1.1757.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:Ending Period Period Period Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High Dollar Val. VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
08:12 1700 $1.2800 $1.3000 $2,206.00 $1.2976 0.42% 25.00%
10:13 64561 $1.1700 $1.3000 $77,296.33 $1.1973 15.81% 29.57% Incl 09:30 $1.2300 6,718 09:32 $1.1700 5,000 10,500
10:23 62182 $1.2000 $1.2050 $74,619.40 $1.2000 15.23% 22.96% Incl 10:16 $1.2000 61,982
12:24 65271 $1.1900 $1.2400 $78,571.60 $1.2038 15.98% 19.71% Incl 11:10 $1.2000 6,000 12:13 $1.2099 5,000
13:08 30555 $1.1800 $1.2099 $36,254.18 $1.1865 7.48% 20.23% Incl 12:25 $1.1800 11,700
14:23 52483 $1.1700 $1.1900 $61,814.40 $1.1778 12.85% 22.41% Incl 13:09 $1.1800 5,000 5,000
14:54 39030 $1.1600 $1.1700 $45,423.50 $1.1638 9.56% 24.18% Incl 14:24 $1.1600 9,276
15:45 16120 $1.1600 $1.1800 $18,901.85 $1.1726 3.95% 24.86%
16:00 70520 $1.1200 $1.1800 $81,098.65 $1.1500 17.27% 24.99% Incl 15:57 $1.1400 4,855
17:24 425 $1.1400 $1.1600 $487.00 $1.1459 0.10% 25.07%
On my minimal chart we've made the fifth consecutive down day and are "pushing" the lower Bollinger limit for the second consecutive day. We closed below the potential support of $1/15/6 on rising volume.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today -6.82% -7.44% -2.26% -9.52% 2.75% Excluding 61,982 large trade volume, change would be -12.85%
Prior -4.35% -6.92% -3.66% -3.08% 36.28%
N.B. If we exclude today's exceptionally large ~62K trade the volume change would be -12.85% instead of the +2.75% we got. I consider this important because real outliers severely skew the metrics they affect. Even if I decide to accept the volume unaltered I should at least be aware of what things would look like sans the outlier.
If we use the unaltered volume increase we must conclude that the down leg won't end because it's not enough of an increase to suggest a capitulation bottom and it continues the volume "cupping" pattern as we trend lower.
If we use the altered figure, things are a bit less clear. We wouldn't call a bottom but we could reasonably suggest that a bottoming may have begun. We would, of course, look for other clues to assess the validity of that.
E.g. if we look at the recent history we note that every longer down move results in new all-time lows. That would suggest we will challenge $1 and penetrate that level.
On my one-year chart I'm feeling lazy today and the overall effect of a close where it was today should be obvious. So I'll be briefer.
The 10 and 20-day SMAs, $1.3495 and $1.3548 ($1.3705 and $1.3588 yesterday), continued the fall began yesterday.
The 50-day SMA is still falling, at $1.3149 ($1.3209 yesterday).
The oscillators I watch all weakened and all that have oversold markers are there but for RSI which is ~1 point above it and should get there tomorrow.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1,1689 and $1.5826 ($1.2191 and $1.5540 yesterday) and increase the rate of divergence and descent of the mid-point.
All in, "Ain't no Sunshine.
Note that if the 61,982 sell is excluded from the day's volume the percentages for buy and sell would be 29.56% and 64.91% respectively.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, good in that it suggests normalcy, but the short percentage is below my desired range (needs re-check) and buy percentage moves even further from what's needed for sustained appreciation.
Not that the short percentage may have been affected by the ~62K trade, which was likely an inter/intra-broker trade, which would generate a short flag. If we take that quantity out of the day's volume the short percentage would be 35.70%, right at the bottom of my desired range. This would offer a small glimmer of hope that we could see something positive near-term. But ...
The spread went from yesterday's "extreme territory" to "outrageous territory". Being in a down trend this suggests more to go.
VWAP movement continues down for the fifth consecutive day.
All in, no suggestion we've neared a bottom unless we want to discount that big trade and take the resulting short percentage as a "tell". I choose to not do so.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
