AI
Tuesday, February 23, 2016 9:01:54 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 02/22 2016 EOD
Typical open high and fall through 10:20 to hit the first intra-day low of $1.21, recover to $1.28 through 10:32, continue down to hit the intra-day low a second time at 10:50 and then do a short flattish $1.22/$1.25 through 11:38, do a long flat $1.23/5, with flat periods at the low side and high side through 13:48, do a medium-long flat $1.22/4 through 15:00, do $1.22/3. At 15:30 b/a imbalance started a quick rise to 18K:500 $1.22/3. One would think this might lead to a rise if it weren't almost entirely due to bots controlling the action. But noooo! Flat as a pancake on mostly no and some low volume until the last two minutes when we did ~6.9K $1.23/4 at 15:59 to hit the close at $1.26 (where'd that come from?) on 180 shares, a buy. The two trades before it were $1.23 x 177 then $1.2250 x 100.
But it still won't look good on the charts - down 4 cents on rising volume. Maybe it'll fool some "casual" traders? I've no idea.
The intra-day breakdown looks particularly bad today.
There were no pre-market trades.
The day opened with a sell of 1,889 for $1.32 along with 3,733 more for the same price and three minutes later did 500 for $1.31, three minutes later 200 for $1.32, and then did a higher-volume (6K-8K each minute) volatile four-minutes ~28K $$1.30/3. B/a went reasonably balanced, low quantities, $1.31/2. Four minutes later did $1.32->$1.30 followed by ~5.5K $1.30->$1.27 (intra-day low). B/a became low quantity 1:1.7 $1.27/9. $1.27/9 low/medium volume occurred until ~1.4K $1.28 bids appeared (depleted in three minutes) and range went low-volume $1.28 for a few minutes. Then it was no/low-volume $1.27/9 as b/a ~4:3 there and then $1.28/9 again and ended the period at 10:02 for $1.29. 10:03-10:18, after a no-trade four minutes, began low/no-volume $1.27/8 ending at $1.27. 10:19-10:20 did ~26.5K in the second minute $1.27->$1.21 (new intra-day low) to $1.25 to end there. 10:21-10:36 after a no-trades three minutes, did ~10.9K over three minutes up to $1.25/6 and then 10:32 did ~3.0K to $1.26/8 followed by 12K $1.26->$1.22 and then did the last three minutes totaling ~19.4K $1.23->$1.25. 10:37-10:49, after a no-trades two minutes, began low/no-volume $1.23/$1.25 which fell to $1.22xx/$1.23 at 10:45 and ended at $1.23. 10:50-14:01 began with 7.8K $1.23->$1.21 (matched intra-day low) followed by a low/medium-volume move to $1.23/$1.23xx, a climb to $1.23/5 at 11:00 on just 300 shares, and then did no/low-volume in that range, interrupted by 11:18's 29.8K $1.24->$1.22 followed by a recovery to $1.23/5 in two minutes on little volume. Range went $1.22/4 at 11:36, did $1.22/4 on ~9K at 11:38, went $1.23/4 at 11:42, went $1.24/5 at 11:49/:50 on ~10.2K, back to $1.23/5 on little volume at 12:09, and so it went until ending on ~15.65K the last two minutes at $1.23. 14:02-15:00, after a no-trade minute, began no/low-volume $1.22/3, with a few frenetic minutes in that range 14:17-14:23 totaling ~17.8K, and went $1.22/4 at 14:26 with higher volume through 14:30 before dropping to low/no-volume again. The period ended at $1.24. 15:01-16:00 did 2.2K $1.22/3 and began no (mostly) and low volume there until 15:17 began more low and less no volume, but switched back at 15:30 or so and stayed in that mode right into the close on a sell of 186 shares for $1.26.
There was one AH sell of 2K for $1.26.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were larger trades (>=5K & 5 4K+) totaling 92,368, 23.12% of day's volume, with a $1.2509 VWAP.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
The only good thing in all this is that it does suggest things are behaving as expected, meaning right now I seem to have a handle on what's happening. I get really nervous when that's not the case.
On my one-year chart the 10 and 20-day SMAs, $1.3705 and $1.3588 ($1.3905 and $1.3593 yesterday), began to fall yesterday and continue today.
The 50-day SMA is still falling, at $1.3209 ($1.3231 yesterday). Regarding chances of flattening out, yesterday's { Another "iffy" proposition IMO } seems even more accurate today. We need to see a strong reversal from our current range to get that 50-day rising regardless of what's falling of the tail for the moment.
The oscillators I watch all weakened but for MFI (untrusted by me) and all are below neutral. Williams %R and full stochastic are well into oversold. It's notable that today's moves were substantially larger weakening moves, compared to yesterday, and momentum switched from mild improvement yesterday to weakening today.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.2191 and $1.5540 ($1.2250 and $1.5512 yesterday) are both dropping and they are diverging as the lower limit drops fast than the upper limit. Price is "pushing" on the lower limit, which in the past suggested longer-lived down trends.
All in, nothing good here. Sans a catalyst I don't see a reversal coming yet, nor a cessation of the down leg.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions, not normally a good thing. The short percentage movement was small and remains just above my desired range (needs re-check) and the buy percentage move was very large. Combining these two considerations and VWAP change, I suspect lots of short covering went on today.
This might be the only good possibility in my non-traditional stuff today.
The spread expanded for the second consecutive day, produced by the typical "open high and fall" routine, and although not yet in outrageous territory has definitely moved into extreme territory. Being in an identified down leg, this suggests more movement lower is likely.
If the possible short covering suggested by the conditions mentioned in the prior paragraph is reality, the move lower could be at an end or at least decelerate. Looks likely based on those considerations but not something that would cause me to deploy cash for a trade.
VWAP movement is really nasty now. I wish I could suggest that the volume combined with four weakening days suggests a bottom, but I can't bring myself to do that.
All in, I won't hang my hat on short covering so I see nothing suggesting a reversal here.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
Typical open high and fall through 10:20 to hit the first intra-day low of $1.21, recover to $1.28 through 10:32, continue down to hit the intra-day low a second time at 10:50 and then do a short flattish $1.22/$1.25 through 11:38, do a long flat $1.23/5, with flat periods at the low side and high side through 13:48, do a medium-long flat $1.22/4 through 15:00, do $1.22/3. At 15:30 b/a imbalance started a quick rise to 18K:500 $1.22/3. One would think this might lead to a rise if it weren't almost entirely due to bots controlling the action. But noooo! Flat as a pancake on mostly no and some low volume until the last two minutes when we did ~6.9K $1.23/4 at 15:59 to hit the close at $1.26 (where'd that come from?) on 180 shares, a buy. The two trades before it were $1.23 x 177 then $1.2250 x 100.
But it still won't look good on the charts - down 4 cents on rising volume. Maybe it'll fool some "casual" traders? I've no idea.
The intra-day breakdown looks particularly bad today.
There were no pre-market trades.
The day opened with a sell of 1,889 for $1.32 along with 3,733 more for the same price and three minutes later did 500 for $1.31, three minutes later 200 for $1.32, and then did a higher-volume (6K-8K each minute) volatile four-minutes ~28K $$1.30/3. B/a went reasonably balanced, low quantities, $1.31/2. Four minutes later did $1.32->$1.30 followed by ~5.5K $1.30->$1.27 (intra-day low). B/a became low quantity 1:1.7 $1.27/9. $1.27/9 low/medium volume occurred until ~1.4K $1.28 bids appeared (depleted in three minutes) and range went low-volume $1.28 for a few minutes. Then it was no/low-volume $1.27/9 as b/a ~4:3 there and then $1.28/9 again and ended the period at 10:02 for $1.29. 10:03-10:18, after a no-trade four minutes, began low/no-volume $1.27/8 ending at $1.27. 10:19-10:20 did ~26.5K in the second minute $1.27->$1.21 (new intra-day low) to $1.25 to end there. 10:21-10:36 after a no-trades three minutes, did ~10.9K over three minutes up to $1.25/6 and then 10:32 did ~3.0K to $1.26/8 followed by 12K $1.26->$1.22 and then did the last three minutes totaling ~19.4K $1.23->$1.25. 10:37-10:49, after a no-trades two minutes, began low/no-volume $1.23/$1.25 which fell to $1.22xx/$1.23 at 10:45 and ended at $1.23. 10:50-14:01 began with 7.8K $1.23->$1.21 (matched intra-day low) followed by a low/medium-volume move to $1.23/$1.23xx, a climb to $1.23/5 at 11:00 on just 300 shares, and then did no/low-volume in that range, interrupted by 11:18's 29.8K $1.24->$1.22 followed by a recovery to $1.23/5 in two minutes on little volume. Range went $1.22/4 at 11:36, did $1.22/4 on ~9K at 11:38, went $1.23/4 at 11:42, went $1.24/5 at 11:49/:50 on ~10.2K, back to $1.23/5 on little volume at 12:09, and so it went until ending on ~15.65K the last two minutes at $1.23. 14:02-15:00, after a no-trade minute, began no/low-volume $1.22/3, with a few frenetic minutes in that range 14:17-14:23 totaling ~17.8K, and went $1.22/4 at 14:26 with higher volume through 14:30 before dropping to low/no-volume again. The period ended at $1.24. 15:01-16:00 did 2.2K $1.22/3 and began no (mostly) and low volume there until 15:17 began more low and less no volume, but switched back at 15:30 or so and stayed in that mode right into the close on a sell of 186 shares for $1.26.
There was one AH sell of 2K for $1.26.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were larger trades (>=5K & 5 4K+) totaling 92,368, 23.12% of day's volume, with a $1.2509 VWAP.
If the VWAP movements combined with percent of day's volume in this table didn't make you shudder you must be in a zombie state. The buy percentages are out of step with that and makes me suspect short covering.Ending Period Period Period Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High Dollar Val. VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
10:02 75759 $1.2700 $1.3300 $98,725.80 $1.3032 18.96% 51.95% Incl 09:44 $1.3199 9,600 09:49 $1.2700 5,000
10:18 2785 $1.2700 $1.2800 $3,542.37 $1.2719 0.70% 50.86%
10:20 26380 $1.2106 $1.2750 $32,913.09 $1.2477 6.60% 50.14%
10:36 46674 $1.2200 $1.2800 $58,023.09 $1.2432 11.68% 45.94% Incl 10:33 $1.2200 4,800 10:36 $1.2500 5,800
10:36 $1.2450 5,800
10:49 14775 $1.2250 $1.2500 $18,241.91 $1.2346 3.70% 44.82% Incl 10:41 $1.2420 5,000
14:01 142896 $1.2100 $1.2500 $176,887.08 $1.2379 35.77% 50.82% Incl 10:54 $1.2301 4,200 11:18 $1.2400 9,600 10,000
11:38 $1.2398 5,000 12:22 $1.2500 8,000
12:54 $1.2500 5,000 13:05 $1.2500 4,968
13:48 $1.2500 4,900
15:00 51490 $1.2200 $1.2400 $63,258.61 $1.2286 12.89% 46.93%
16:00 34090 $1.2200 $1.2600 $41,867.15 $1.2281 8.53% 47.64% Incl 15:17:37 $1.2201 4,700
17:43 2000 $1.2600 $1.2600 $2,520.00 $1.2600 0.50% 47.40%
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
On my minimal chart we closed below the new potential rising support (white line) for the third day on rising volume and began "pushing" the lower Bollinger limit, as suggested two days ago with { ... the price and volume behavior suggests we'll likely move more towards the lower limit ... }. This also makes the fourth consecutive down day, leading to the hope, weak though it may be, that we are nearing a bottom. History would not suggest this though.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today -4.35% -6.92% -3.66% -3.08% 36.28%
Prior -2.13% -5.11% -2.09% -5.45% -14.22%
The only good thing in all this is that it does suggest things are behaving as expected, meaning right now I seem to have a handle on what's happening. I get really nervous when that's not the case.
On my one-year chart the 10 and 20-day SMAs, $1.3705 and $1.3588 ($1.3905 and $1.3593 yesterday), began to fall yesterday and continue today.
The 50-day SMA is still falling, at $1.3209 ($1.3231 yesterday). Regarding chances of flattening out, yesterday's { Another "iffy" proposition IMO } seems even more accurate today. We need to see a strong reversal from our current range to get that 50-day rising regardless of what's falling of the tail for the moment.
The oscillators I watch all weakened but for MFI (untrusted by me) and all are below neutral. Williams %R and full stochastic are well into oversold. It's notable that today's moves were substantially larger weakening moves, compared to yesterday, and momentum switched from mild improvement yesterday to weakening today.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.2191 and $1.5540 ($1.2250 and $1.5512 yesterday) are both dropping and they are diverging as the lower limit drops fast than the upper limit. Price is "pushing" on the lower limit, which in the past suggested longer-lived down trends.
All in, nothing good here. Sans a catalyst I don't see a reversal coming yet, nor a cessation of the down leg.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions, not normally a good thing. The short percentage movement was small and remains just above my desired range (needs re-check) and the buy percentage move was very large. Combining these two considerations and VWAP change, I suspect lots of short covering went on today.
This might be the only good possibility in my non-traditional stuff today.
The spread expanded for the second consecutive day, produced by the typical "open high and fall" routine, and although not yet in outrageous territory has definitely moved into extreme territory. Being in an identified down leg, this suggests more movement lower is likely.
If the possible short covering suggested by the conditions mentioned in the prior paragraph is reality, the move lower could be at an end or at least decelerate. Looks likely based on those considerations but not something that would cause me to deploy cash for a trade.
VWAP movement is really nasty now. I wish I could suggest that the volume combined with four weakening days suggests a bottom, but I can't bring myself to do that.
All in, I won't hang my hat on short covering so I see nothing suggesting a reversal here.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
