AI
Saturday, February 20, 2016 11:37:50 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 02/19 2016 EOD
Today was an "open high and fall" with flat, down, flat, down, ... through ~11:05 to set the intra-day low at $1.31, recover and do sideways mostly $1.32/5 through ~15:37 and then drop into the close on low volume, but for the nasty closing trade of ~23.5K for $1.30, setting the low for the day.
None of my stuff below suggests anything other than more weakness right now.
There were no pre-market trades.
The day opened with a sell of 850 shares for $1.38, did two low-volume minutes there and then ~5.1K $1.38->$1.36, another ~1.5K there and began low-volume $1.36/7 until 9:45's ~6.7K did $1.36->1.38->$1.37 and began low/no-volume $1.37/8 for a few minutes, did $1.37/8 for six, did $1.38->$1.36 on 2K at 9:51, had no trades for 7 minutes and began low/no-volume $1.36/7 with b/a there ~2:1 and ended at 10:00 on 3.7K for $1.36. 10:01-11:01, after three no-trade minutes, did ~8.2K $1.36->$1.33 and had a b/a imbalance ~1:2 $1.32/5 to begin no/low-volume $1.33/5. At 10:22 b/a had moved to ~1:3.5 $1.32/5 and low/no-volume $1.34/5 was traded until 10:31/:32 did 5.4K $1.34->$1.33. After only one trade at $1.33 the next six minutes, $1.34/5 went on ~1.5K, did $1.33/5 on ~500 shares at 10:42, and did ~2.2K at $1.33/4 in the last three minutes to end at $1.33. 11:02-11:11 began with a four minute drop with 1.1K $1.32 and 3.5K more through 11:05 to $1.31 (first new intra-day low) and did 8.4K in the next three minutes at $1.31/2. After two minutes no trades, ~5K did $1.32 to end the period. 11:12-11:40, after seven no-trade minutes, did 5.1K $1.33/4 to begin an intermittent no/low-volume climb to $1.36 to end the period. 11:41-11:54 did no/low-volume $1.35/6 and ended at $1.35 11:55-12:12 did 2.1K $1.35->$1.34, b/a went to ~106:1 (no, not a typo) $1.34/5 but was apparently phony as only 1 100-share $1.34 trade went before 12:03 began a price drop on 55.9K at 12:03 that went to $1.32 by 12:05 and began no/low-volume $1.32/3, ending there. 12:13-12:42 began a halting climb with ~5.8K $1.32->$1.34 and did no/low-volume $1.33/4 until 12:34 did 268 shares at $1.35, and ended the period at $1.34. 12:43-13:40 first did 100 shares at 12:45 for $1.36 and went no/low-volume $1.34/6 and ended at $1.34. 13:41-14:00 began a quick step down through 13:43 to $1.32 on a total of ~8.7K and began no/low-volume $1.32/3 and at 13:58 did a three-minute step up on 1.9K to $1.36 to end the period. 14:01-15:03, after a no-trade two-minutes, began low/no-volume $1.35/6 and dropped to $1.34/5 at 14:25 and ended at $1.35. 15:04-15:20 began with 9.6K $1.35->$1.36->$1.33->$1.35 and went no/low-volume $1.35/6 to end at $1.35. 15:21-15:58, after a no-trade minute, did $1.34 to start a no/low-volume step down to $1.32 at 15:28 and then rebound on no/low-volume to $1.34/5 by 15:32. The b/a got wide at ~1:7.5 $1.32/5 to begin low/no-volume $1.33/4, began $1.32/3 at 15:42, b/a moved to ~2.7:1 $1.31/4 at 15:44 and offer went to $1.33 at 15:47, and do $1.31/3 at period end. 15:59-16:00 did 1.9K $1.31/3 and then did a sell of 23,545 shares for $1.30 to close, setting a new low for the day.
There were no AH trades.
Including the closing trade (opening didn't qualify), there were 9 larger trades (>=5K & 2 4K+) totaling 90,945, 31.18% of day's volume, with a $1.3259 VWAP. Excluding the closing trade, there were 8 larger trades totaling 67,400, 23.11% of day's volume, with a $1.3350 VWAP.
Another "bad" sign is the VWAP weakness in the last two periods, mostly caused by the very large closing block of ~23.5K at $1.30. Remember that this is a market-maker action and I do not know the purpose, implications or effects on following days' action. All I know is today's closing trade was exceptionally large and was below the other intra-day lows. We do know the effects on the charts that traditional TA would consider though. More on that follows.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
Today we closed below the white line for the third day, and even worse, traded completely below it for the whole day and it looks, AFAICT, that we have a 7 cent gap between the line and our high today. This is the third day down and, thank goodness, the volume was lower -14.22% today. If today wasn't Friday, when volume is often lower anyway, I would say it looks like the price move down is starting to run out of steam. Being Friday, I'll hold off on that.
The close was a killer today - a penny lower than the intra-day low which was touched 11:05-11:10 and again at 11:58/:59. The volume into the close was not high. But that closing sell of ~23.5K for $1.30 negates any positive we might take from the low volume on falling price leading into the close.
ISTM this is bad ju-ju.
On my one-year chart the 10 and 20-day SMAs, $1.3905 and $1.3593 ($1.4185 and $1.3528 yesterday), have stopped rising and began to fall. The tail will drop a higher price off the tail for the 10-day and if we don't move up to $1.58 (unlikely ISTM) the 10-day will descend at an increased rate tomorrow and forward for a while. The 20-day will be dropping $1.17 and could show a rise tomorrow as long as we stay above $1.17 (likely IMO). Moreover, if we can maintain around $1.30 for four days or so the 20-day won't fall. I think this will be iffy though.
The 50-day SMA is still falling, at $1.3231 ($1.3247 yesterday). Now we need to hold three more days just to get the 50-day to flatten. Another "iffy" proposition IMO.
The oscillators I watch were similar to yesterday, all but momentum weakened. RSI has joined the others in being below neutral. Williams %R went into oversold and full stochastic will likely be there tomorrow.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.2250 and $1.5512 ($1.2366 and $1.5488 yesterday), which had started to converge a bit yesterday, reversed course and began to diverge, due mostly to the lower limit's larger drop which also moves the mid-point lower, fitting yesterday's { ... will likely start to move slowly lower. I think price movement will be lower and sufficient to accelerate the downward movement of the mid-point, where we traded today. }
All in, I look at the charts and guess what the shorters and day-traders might perceive. Of course, I don't know what rules they base on so it's all only guessing.
That three-day down pattern on relatively high volume, as compared to that seen on the prior four up days, and lower opens, lows, highs, and closes must make them salivate as the shorters see no support in price and $1.15/$1.16 in sight. They know they can drive it lower with relatively little outlay, thanks to low volume and price. Would they do so and aim for the $1.15/6 or even lower? Can't say but if I was a shorter I would sure aim for at least that $1.15/6 and then gauge whether to shoot for more downside before starting to cover.
OTOH, they may see our current range as a good covering buy position, although this wasn't supported by any of the intra-day action, buy percentage or short percentage.
Right now I'm thinking we'll see the $1.15/6, sans any catalyst that supports the near-term price, and some early covering buys, at least, around that area. For me, after that it's a toss-up whether they shoot for lower or not. The traditional and my non-traditional TA stuff should start to yield some clues as we approach that area.
All the above is, of course, quite speculative as I guess what others that are strange to me might do, what the market sentiment seems to be and combine it with "reading the leaves" of the TA stuff.
So I could certainly be all wrong in this. Time will tell and I will, as usual, "fess up" if/when I see I am wrong about it.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions and the divergence was wide too. This is no good I think. The short percentage went above my upper range (needs re-check) and the buy percentage was abysmal on a volume decline of -14.22%. It's the worst since 1/26's 27.74%, which had a ~32% short percentage and a big volume decline of -54.93%. Today's combination is not anything like that one, which was followed by four consecutive VWAP improvement days.
The spread is wider than I would like even if we discount the closing trade of $1.30 and use $1.31 as our low, yielding 5.38%. Further, it was produced by the old "open high and fall" routine so even ignoring that close doesn't ameliorate that. Now we are also in a down trend.
VWAP movement was the third consecutive down day. One is tempted to say it's time for a reversal but that would be only hopium for now as none of the stuff I check suggests that ... Well, one could argue over the lower volume but it would be a tenuous argument either way at best.
All in, more near-term weakness sans a positive catalyst.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
Today was an "open high and fall" with flat, down, flat, down, ... through ~11:05 to set the intra-day low at $1.31, recover and do sideways mostly $1.32/5 through ~15:37 and then drop into the close on low volume, but for the nasty closing trade of ~23.5K for $1.30, setting the low for the day.
None of my stuff below suggests anything other than more weakness right now.
There were no pre-market trades.
The day opened with a sell of 850 shares for $1.38, did two low-volume minutes there and then ~5.1K $1.38->$1.36, another ~1.5K there and began low-volume $1.36/7 until 9:45's ~6.7K did $1.36->1.38->$1.37 and began low/no-volume $1.37/8 for a few minutes, did $1.37/8 for six, did $1.38->$1.36 on 2K at 9:51, had no trades for 7 minutes and began low/no-volume $1.36/7 with b/a there ~2:1 and ended at 10:00 on 3.7K for $1.36. 10:01-11:01, after three no-trade minutes, did ~8.2K $1.36->$1.33 and had a b/a imbalance ~1:2 $1.32/5 to begin no/low-volume $1.33/5. At 10:22 b/a had moved to ~1:3.5 $1.32/5 and low/no-volume $1.34/5 was traded until 10:31/:32 did 5.4K $1.34->$1.33. After only one trade at $1.33 the next six minutes, $1.34/5 went on ~1.5K, did $1.33/5 on ~500 shares at 10:42, and did ~2.2K at $1.33/4 in the last three minutes to end at $1.33. 11:02-11:11 began with a four minute drop with 1.1K $1.32 and 3.5K more through 11:05 to $1.31 (first new intra-day low) and did 8.4K in the next three minutes at $1.31/2. After two minutes no trades, ~5K did $1.32 to end the period. 11:12-11:40, after seven no-trade minutes, did 5.1K $1.33/4 to begin an intermittent no/low-volume climb to $1.36 to end the period. 11:41-11:54 did no/low-volume $1.35/6 and ended at $1.35 11:55-12:12 did 2.1K $1.35->$1.34, b/a went to ~106:1 (no, not a typo) $1.34/5 but was apparently phony as only 1 100-share $1.34 trade went before 12:03 began a price drop on 55.9K at 12:03 that went to $1.32 by 12:05 and began no/low-volume $1.32/3, ending there. 12:13-12:42 began a halting climb with ~5.8K $1.32->$1.34 and did no/low-volume $1.33/4 until 12:34 did 268 shares at $1.35, and ended the period at $1.34. 12:43-13:40 first did 100 shares at 12:45 for $1.36 and went no/low-volume $1.34/6 and ended at $1.34. 13:41-14:00 began a quick step down through 13:43 to $1.32 on a total of ~8.7K and began no/low-volume $1.32/3 and at 13:58 did a three-minute step up on 1.9K to $1.36 to end the period. 14:01-15:03, after a no-trade two-minutes, began low/no-volume $1.35/6 and dropped to $1.34/5 at 14:25 and ended at $1.35. 15:04-15:20 began with 9.6K $1.35->$1.36->$1.33->$1.35 and went no/low-volume $1.35/6 to end at $1.35. 15:21-15:58, after a no-trade minute, did $1.34 to start a no/low-volume step down to $1.32 at 15:28 and then rebound on no/low-volume to $1.34/5 by 15:32. The b/a got wide at ~1:7.5 $1.32/5 to begin low/no-volume $1.33/4, began $1.32/3 at 15:42, b/a moved to ~2.7:1 $1.31/4 at 15:44 and offer went to $1.33 at 15:47, and do $1.31/3 at period end. 15:59-16:00 did 1.9K $1.31/3 and then did a sell of 23,545 shares for $1.30 to close, setting a new low for the day.
There were no AH trades.
Including the closing trade (opening didn't qualify), there were 9 larger trades (>=5K & 2 4K+) totaling 90,945, 31.18% of day's volume, with a $1.3259 VWAP. Excluding the closing trade, there were 8 larger trades totaling 67,400, 23.11% of day's volume, with a $1.3350 VWAP.
These are particularly bad readings. Note where the majority of buy percentages fall and their aggregate percentage of day's volume. Since the VWAPs held up reasonably well through 1:20 I strongly suspect shorters jumping this symbol today. This seems supported by the daily short percentage (see below) of 48.65%, above the high end of my "normal" range. If $CPST had been the cause I don't think this would occur as the shares should be "in the control of" the selling entity, Cowan & Co. in our case.Ending Period Period Period Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High Dollar Val. VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
10:00 24116 $1.3600 $1.3805 $32,964.56 $1.3669 8.27% 27.47%
11:11 36669 $1.3100 $1.3600 $48,834.61 $1.3318 12.57% 35.71% Incl 11:11 $1.3240 5,000
11:40 7450 $1.3290 $1.3600 $9,958.33 $1.3367 2.55% 42.17%
11:54 2811 $1.3500 $1.3600 $3,795.85 $1.3504 0.96% 43.78%
12:12 97550 $1.3200 $1.3500 $130,139.07 $1.3341 33.45% 26.69% Incl 12:03 $1.3400 18,600 12,600 7,400 5,800 4,500
12:05 $1.3200 9,500
12:42 17000 $1.3234 $1.3500 $22,700.47 $1.3353 5.83% 23.61% Incl 12:13 $1.3234 4,000
13:40 15714 $1.3400 $1.3600 $21,205.42 $1.3495 5.39% 23.07%
14:00 15457 $1.3220 $1.3600 $20,658.41 $1.3365 5.30% 23.23%
15:03 15100 $1.3400 $1.3600 $20,345.36 $1.3474 5.18% 26.03%
15:20 11900 $1.3300 $1.3600 $16,003.50 $1.3448 4.08% 25.85%
15:58 18327 $1.3100 $1.3500 $24,304.71 $1.3262 6.28% 28.67%
16:00 25445 $1.3000 $1.3300 $33,133.41 $1.3022 8.72% 26.46% Incl 16:00 $1.3000 23,545
Another "bad" sign is the VWAP weakness in the last two periods, mostly caused by the very large closing block of ~23.5K at $1.30. Remember that this is a market-maker action and I do not know the purpose, implications or effects on following days' action. All I know is today's closing trade was exceptionally large and was below the other intra-day lows. We do know the effects on the charts that traditional TA would consider though. More on that follows.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
Re my minimal chart, yesterday I noted { we closed below the new potential rising support (white line) for the second day. Worse, we traded completely below it on rising volume. And this is on a "cupping" volume pattern of the bad kind - higher 2/12 lower, higher, higher again as price range peaked and then began falling. Range is now about the mid-point of the Bollinger limits and the price and volume behavior suggests we'll likely move more towards the lower limit, $1.2366 today. } YOWZAH!__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today -2.13% -5.11% -2.09% -5.45% -14.22%
Prior -2.76% -2.84% -5.37% -2.48% 8.59%
Today we closed below the white line for the third day, and even worse, traded completely below it for the whole day and it looks, AFAICT, that we have a 7 cent gap between the line and our high today. This is the third day down and, thank goodness, the volume was lower -14.22% today. If today wasn't Friday, when volume is often lower anyway, I would say it looks like the price move down is starting to run out of steam. Being Friday, I'll hold off on that.
The close was a killer today - a penny lower than the intra-day low which was touched 11:05-11:10 and again at 11:58/:59. The volume into the close was not high. But that closing sell of ~23.5K for $1.30 negates any positive we might take from the low volume on falling price leading into the close.
ISTM this is bad ju-ju.
On my one-year chart the 10 and 20-day SMAs, $1.3905 and $1.3593 ($1.4185 and $1.3528 yesterday), have stopped rising and began to fall. The tail will drop a higher price off the tail for the 10-day and if we don't move up to $1.58 (unlikely ISTM) the 10-day will descend at an increased rate tomorrow and forward for a while. The 20-day will be dropping $1.17 and could show a rise tomorrow as long as we stay above $1.17 (likely IMO). Moreover, if we can maintain around $1.30 for four days or so the 20-day won't fall. I think this will be iffy though.
The 50-day SMA is still falling, at $1.3231 ($1.3247 yesterday). Now we need to hold three more days just to get the 50-day to flatten. Another "iffy" proposition IMO.
The oscillators I watch were similar to yesterday, all but momentum weakened. RSI has joined the others in being below neutral. Williams %R went into oversold and full stochastic will likely be there tomorrow.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.2250 and $1.5512 ($1.2366 and $1.5488 yesterday), which had started to converge a bit yesterday, reversed course and began to diverge, due mostly to the lower limit's larger drop which also moves the mid-point lower, fitting yesterday's { ... will likely start to move slowly lower. I think price movement will be lower and sufficient to accelerate the downward movement of the mid-point, where we traded today. }
All in, I look at the charts and guess what the shorters and day-traders might perceive. Of course, I don't know what rules they base on so it's all only guessing.
That three-day down pattern on relatively high volume, as compared to that seen on the prior four up days, and lower opens, lows, highs, and closes must make them salivate as the shorters see no support in price and $1.15/$1.16 in sight. They know they can drive it lower with relatively little outlay, thanks to low volume and price. Would they do so and aim for the $1.15/6 or even lower? Can't say but if I was a shorter I would sure aim for at least that $1.15/6 and then gauge whether to shoot for more downside before starting to cover.
OTOH, they may see our current range as a good covering buy position, although this wasn't supported by any of the intra-day action, buy percentage or short percentage.
Right now I'm thinking we'll see the $1.15/6, sans any catalyst that supports the near-term price, and some early covering buys, at least, around that area. For me, after that it's a toss-up whether they shoot for lower or not. The traditional and my non-traditional TA stuff should start to yield some clues as we approach that area.
All the above is, of course, quite speculative as I guess what others that are strange to me might do, what the market sentiment seems to be and combine it with "reading the leaves" of the TA stuff.
So I could certainly be all wrong in this. Time will tell and I will, as usual, "fess up" if/when I see I am wrong about it.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions and the divergence was wide too. This is no good I think. The short percentage went above my upper range (needs re-check) and the buy percentage was abysmal on a volume decline of -14.22%. It's the worst since 1/26's 27.74%, which had a ~32% short percentage and a big volume decline of -54.93%. Today's combination is not anything like that one, which was followed by four consecutive VWAP improvement days.
The spread is wider than I would like even if we discount the closing trade of $1.30 and use $1.31 as our low, yielding 5.38%. Further, it was produced by the old "open high and fall" routine so even ignoring that close doesn't ameliorate that. Now we are also in a down trend.
VWAP movement was the third consecutive down day. One is tempted to say it's time for a reversal but that would be only hopium for now as none of the stuff I check suggests that ... Well, one could argue over the lower volume but it would be a tenuous argument either way at best.
All in, more near-term weakness sans a positive catalyst.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
