AI
Friday, February 19, 2016 9:21:16 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 02/18 2016 EOD
Continued negative outlook from me today. Very few signs that we've bottomed.
There was one pre-market buy of 125 shares for $1.42.
The day opened with a sell of 1,742 shares at $1.41, had no trades for two minutes and then did ~5.6K $1.40/1. A b/a 1:14 $1.40/1 had no trades until 9:37 (2.1K) and 9:40 (~11.1K) did $1.40. This produced a b/a 100 shares each side at $1.39/$1.40. 9:43 did ~3.6K $1.39->$1.37 and produced a b/a 1:15 $1.37/9. 9:47 did ~4.4K $1.38/9 to finally get some action going as we then did ~19.3K (with one ~12.97K trade) $1.38 the next two minutes. No (mostly) and low-volume $1.38/9 followed until 10:03 did 2.8K $1.40/1 to begin no (mostly) and low-volume $1.41 through 10:06 to end the period. 10:07-10:48, after no trades four minutes, did a three-minute ~18.6K $1.38/40 and went no (mostly) and low-volume $1.39/40 and ended at $1.39/40 on 3.9K. 10:49-13:30 did 1.5K $1.38/9 to begin a long low/no-volume period in that range with a big buy imbalance, interrupted by 15.7K $1.38 at 11:30, an aggregate ~10.7K 11:43-:46 and a couple other ~4K and 3K minutes, and ended at $1.38/9. 13:31-14:41 did ~17.9K $1.38->$1.37 followed by low/medium-volume there, moved right back to $1.38/9 on ~3.6K at 13:38, did no/low-volume $1.38/9 through 13:55 and dropped back to $1.37/8 to continue no/low-volume there and ended at 1.38. 14:42-15:09, after one minute no trades, moved to $1.39 on ~1.5K and began no/low-volume $1.38/9 and ended at $1.38. 15:10-15:15 did a six-minute ~90.5K $1.39->$1.37 move and ended at $1.37/8. 15:16-16:00 just did $1.37/8 low-volume, interrupted by 13.5K at 15:31, until ... Nothing! There was no EOD volatility. We just stayed right there and closed with an unknown 172 shares at $1.3750.
There were no AH trades.
In/Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify),there were 10 larger trades (>=5K & 3 4K+) totaling 62,197, 18.29% of day's volume, with a $1.3779 VWAP.
I'm now considering the white line as valid resistance as it had 6 days of support along with the origin.
On my one-year chart the 10 and 20-day SMAs, $1.4185 and $1.3528 ($1.4090 and $1.3365 yesterday), continue to rise. The possibility of the 10-day flattening if we didn't move out of our prior range is starting to look more likely, but not because we stayed in the range. Rather it's because we are moving lower. Depending on what we do near-term we may just skip flattening and start to roll over. The 20-day should be safe another few days but if we get low enough it will start to roll over too.
The 50-day SMA is still falling, at $1.3247 ($1.3274 yesterday). It's still possible it will flatten but as with yesterday I think price continues lower and the 50-day would switch to rolling over to
The oscillators I watch all weakened but for momentum. Momentum had a small up-tick, likely due more to the volume since the price movement went the wrong way to cause this. RSI is just about right on neutral while all others are below neutral.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.2366 and $1.5488 ($1.2394 and $1.5514 yesterday) are starting to converge a bit and will likely start to move slowly lower. I think price movement will be lower and sufficient to accelerate the downward movement of the mid-point, where we traded today.
All in, the volume rise combined with a weakening price makes me thing more weakness is in the cards for now.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, normalcy and good, and short percentage got back into the low end of my preferred range (needs re-check). Buy percentage still way to low to expect any sustained appreciation. I suspect it rose today due to short covering as the intra-day and inter-day behavior for several days have moved from higher prices, good for shorting and/or the ATM, to lower prices good for covering and scalping a short-term profit. Check the VWAP changes.
The spread continues to narrow, the only sign that we might be near a turn. With the volume rising on lower price though I think it may be just shorters being willing to cover faster, propping up the price a wee bit which keeps the spread from getting blown out. That is likely to change.
VWAP movement lower accelerated. Combined with the higher volume I expect it will move lower another day at least.
All in, nothing good this way comes for now.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
Continued negative outlook from me today. Very few signs that we've bottomed.
There was one pre-market buy of 125 shares for $1.42.
The day opened with a sell of 1,742 shares at $1.41, had no trades for two minutes and then did ~5.6K $1.40/1. A b/a 1:14 $1.40/1 had no trades until 9:37 (2.1K) and 9:40 (~11.1K) did $1.40. This produced a b/a 100 shares each side at $1.39/$1.40. 9:43 did ~3.6K $1.39->$1.37 and produced a b/a 1:15 $1.37/9. 9:47 did ~4.4K $1.38/9 to finally get some action going as we then did ~19.3K (with one ~12.97K trade) $1.38 the next two minutes. No (mostly) and low-volume $1.38/9 followed until 10:03 did 2.8K $1.40/1 to begin no (mostly) and low-volume $1.41 through 10:06 to end the period. 10:07-10:48, after no trades four minutes, did a three-minute ~18.6K $1.38/40 and went no (mostly) and low-volume $1.39/40 and ended at $1.39/40 on 3.9K. 10:49-13:30 did 1.5K $1.38/9 to begin a long low/no-volume period in that range with a big buy imbalance, interrupted by 15.7K $1.38 at 11:30, an aggregate ~10.7K 11:43-:46 and a couple other ~4K and 3K minutes, and ended at $1.38/9. 13:31-14:41 did ~17.9K $1.38->$1.37 followed by low/medium-volume there, moved right back to $1.38/9 on ~3.6K at 13:38, did no/low-volume $1.38/9 through 13:55 and dropped back to $1.37/8 to continue no/low-volume there and ended at 1.38. 14:42-15:09, after one minute no trades, moved to $1.39 on ~1.5K and began no/low-volume $1.38/9 and ended at $1.38. 15:10-15:15 did a six-minute ~90.5K $1.39->$1.37 move and ended at $1.37/8. 15:16-16:00 just did $1.37/8 low-volume, interrupted by 13.5K at 15:31, until ... Nothing! There was no EOD volatility. We just stayed right there and closed with an unknown 172 shares at $1.3750.
There were no AH trades.
In/Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify),there were 10 larger trades (>=5K & 3 4K+) totaling 62,197, 18.29% of day's volume, with a $1.3779 VWAP.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:Ending Period Period Period Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High Dollar Val. VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
10:06 53997 $1.3700 $1.4200 $75,077.89 $1.3904 15.88% 44.53% Incl 09:48 $1.3800 5,000 09:49 $1.3800 12,690
10:48 38734 $1.3800 $1.4000 $53,992.29 $1.3939 11.39% 48.27% Incl 10:13 $1.3800 4,500
13:30 74536 $1.3800 $1.3901 $103,133.45 $1.3837 21.92% 43.70% Incl 11:30 $1.3801 6,200
14:41 38473 $1.3700 $1.3900 $52,977.38 $1.3770 11.32% 43.61% Incl 13:31 $1.3800 5,000
15:09 4854 $1.3800 $1.3900 $6,719.88 $1.3844 1.43% 41.02%
15:15 88958 $1.3700 $1.3900 $122,582.30 $1.3780 26.16% 39.20% Incl 15:10 $1.3900 4,087 $1.3701 8,100
15:11 $1.3800 7,200 15:12 $1.3700 4,420
16:00 35942 $1.3700 $1.3800 $49,324.36 $1.3723 10.57% 37.25% Incl 15:31 $1.3700 5,000
On my minimal chart we closed below the new potential rising support (white line) for the second day. Worse, we traded completely below it on rising volume. And this is on a "cupping" volume pattern of the bad kind - higher 2/12 lower, higher, higher again as price range peaked and then began falling. Range is now about the mid-point of the Bollinger limits and the price and volume behavior suggests we'll likely move more towards the lower limit, $1.2366 today.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today -2.76% -2.84% -5.37% -2.48% 8.59%
Prior -2.68% 0.00% -2.61% -2.76% 70.72%
I'm now considering the white line as valid resistance as it had 6 days of support along with the origin.
On my one-year chart the 10 and 20-day SMAs, $1.4185 and $1.3528 ($1.4090 and $1.3365 yesterday), continue to rise. The possibility of the 10-day flattening if we didn't move out of our prior range is starting to look more likely, but not because we stayed in the range. Rather it's because we are moving lower. Depending on what we do near-term we may just skip flattening and start to roll over. The 20-day should be safe another few days but if we get low enough it will start to roll over too.
The 50-day SMA is still falling, at $1.3247 ($1.3274 yesterday). It's still possible it will flatten but as with yesterday I think price continues lower and the 50-day would switch to rolling over to
The oscillators I watch all weakened but for momentum. Momentum had a small up-tick, likely due more to the volume since the price movement went the wrong way to cause this. RSI is just about right on neutral while all others are below neutral.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.2366 and $1.5488 ($1.2394 and $1.5514 yesterday) are starting to converge a bit and will likely start to move slowly lower. I think price movement will be lower and sufficient to accelerate the downward movement of the mid-point, where we traded today.
All in, the volume rise combined with a weakening price makes me thing more weakness is in the cards for now.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, normalcy and good, and short percentage got back into the low end of my preferred range (needs re-check). Buy percentage still way to low to expect any sustained appreciation. I suspect it rose today due to short covering as the intra-day and inter-day behavior for several days have moved from higher prices, good for shorting and/or the ATM, to lower prices good for covering and scalping a short-term profit. Check the VWAP changes.
The spread continues to narrow, the only sign that we might be near a turn. With the volume rising on lower price though I think it may be just shorters being willing to cover faster, propping up the price a wee bit which keeps the spread from getting blown out. That is likely to change.
VWAP movement lower accelerated. Combined with the higher volume I expect it will move lower another day at least.
All in, nothing good this way comes for now.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
