Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

NVO-vs-SNY battle in T2D (from WSJ):

http://www.wsj.com/articles/novo-nordisk-avoiding-the-diabetes-crowd-1447151802

This is where Novo can arguably distinguish itself. It is pitching its new insulin Tresiba at a premium to Lantus and its existing product Levemir, based on its longer duration and the ability to inject at any time of day.

That means Novo could discount Levemir in a diabetes dogfight, while protecting Tresiba.

…[NVO also] has a potential long-acting heir to Victoza… It is ahead of rivals in trying to formulate an oral GLP-1, which would take Novo into the half of the diabetes market, by value, where it currently doesn’t compete.

…The caveat for Novo is that this puts serious weight on a few upcoming pieces of data… And Novo’s valuation means it always looks exposed: at well over 20 times forward earnings, it trades at a hefty premium to pharmaceutical peers that has widened this year.

The first crunch point early next year will be a trial looking at the incidence of hypoglycemia for Tresiba versus Lantus; a positive outcome is integral to Novo’s premium strategy.