Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[Mogwai]

My script growth belief is around 2,000 new scripts per quarter. This is higher growth than currently, so I am factoring in higher growth. So at 2,000 per quarter, it would take 7 quarters to double scripts. Which is close to 2 years. I understand people keep pointing to ex-US deals to stave off dilution, but at most those will provide maybe one quarters worth of cash. I do disagree that they will wait until 2nd half of 2016 to dilute. I think it will come before that. They can't let the cash dwindle down below $100m because that will add even more uncertainty going forward and the stock will suffer as investors wait for the inevitable. I also think they should do it BEFORE interim REDUCE-IT. Because I believe that if the trial is not stopped at interim, the stock will take a huge hit cause then there is a 100% chance of dilution and investors will de-risk and wait for the dilution before re-entering for REDUCE-IT later on.