REALLY? Stupidest thing you have ever heard? Did you read the link I posted? Companies with a MC under $300mm 0 for 15 in Phase III oncology trials - just coincidence my man?
His premise is that if the drug has promise of succeeding the SP will have been bid up by those in the know. Does that mean folks know unequivocally how the Phase III is proceeding? Absolutely not. However, it is an indication that smart money/BP understands the odds and when the odds are in the favor of success the MC is bid up in excess of $300mm. As a player of the horses, this concept should not be foreign to you.
As I also said, there is still time for PPHM's MC to move above $300mm, it just needs to get going. And by the way, I still believe in PPHM and have not sold a share. But that does not mean that I am not always looking at both sides of the equation.