Tornado Alley (PROG)

[fuagf]

Bruce Lee - What a Strong El Niño Could Mean for the U.S.

.. wha? Bruce Lee uncertain?? .. lol, anyway, seems the operative word is "could" ..

This year's El Niño could be among the strongest in history, but its effects could vary throughout the country.


NASA oceanographer Bill Patzert speaks about an El Nino weather system that could
strike California in late fall or early winter on Thursday in Pasadena, Calif.

By Max Miceli
Aug. 14, 2015 | 1:57 p.m. EDT

Unofficially nicknamed Bruce Lee by a National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration blog, the current iteration of El Niño is the second-strongest on record
.. http://www.usnews.com/news/science/news/articles/2015/08/14/el-nino-likely-this-winter-for-drought-weary-california ..
for this time of year, and many are predicting that it will be one of the strongest ever, if not the strongest ever.

That has serious implications for the U.S., from California to New York to Ohio.

El Niño occurs when a shift in winds leads to warmer water in the eastern portion of the Pacific Ocean than usual. This typically and eventually brings rain from the Pacific to North America. Here's how:

The biggest question surrounding the current El Niño has been whether it will produce storms in California to help mitigate the drought in the area.

But Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, said
.. http://www.usnews.com/news/science/news/articles/2015/08/13/federal-experts-this-el-nino-may-be-historically-strong ..
Californians shouldn’t count on it, according to The Associated Press.

"A big El Niño guarantees nothing," Halpert said. "At this point there's no cause for rejoicing that El Niño is here to save the day."

Still, NOAA points out .. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/august-2015-el-ni%C3%B1o-update-supercalifragilisticexpealidocious ..
that the weather phenomenon can significantly shift the odds for what Californians could see in terms of winter rain, like so:


https://twitter.com/NOAAClimate/status/631861779660992512/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

And while more rain could help alleviate the Golden State's drought, it can also bring with it mudslides and flooding in the case of extreme downpours.

This El Niño’s potential effects aren't limited to increased rain in California, though. In fact, there’s a reasonable chance plenty of other states could be seeing more precipitation as well this winter.

Meanwhile, other areas – like the Ohio Valley and Pacific Northwest – typically experience drier than average conditions during El Niño, according to NOAA. The effects aren't set in stone, however.


Winter precipitation (December-February) in 1982-83 and 1965-66 – two strong El Nino events
.. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/united-states-el-ni%C3%B1o-impacts-0
– compared to the 1981-2010 average. The winter of 1982-83 showed the "classic" wet signal that El Nino often brings to California, but the winter of 1965-66 did not.

El Niño can also affect the relative temperatures of the states. During an El Niño year, the northern portion of the U.S. typically experiences a winter that's slightly warmer than usual, while the South experiences the opposite.

While this El Niño has a high potential to be stronger than any the U.S. has seen, California’s state climatologist Michael L. Anderson told The New York Times
.. http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/14/science/signs-of-a-historic-el-nino-but-forecasters-remain-wary.html?_r=0 ..
that it’s not necessarily the strength of El Niño that determines whether it’s memorable.

“The one important element is that El Niño events are associated with large variability of outcome,” Anderson said. “People don’t associate as strongly the years when an El Niño event didn’t lead to a big outcome.”

http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2015/08/14/what-a-strong-el-nino-could-mean-for-the-us