If a buyout is in the works, then things can tie up nicely...now, granted, in the real world, seldom does everything tie up like this example...but...here we go...
1) the convertible debt is certainly not only diluting us but more importantly also Offor. Offor would ordinarily not be so happy with that, UNLESS, a deal is very close at hand for someone to buy his shares at a price he's happy with. At that point, who cares if he's getting diluted if he's getting the price he wants? Certainly, he would have fired the CFO if he didn't like the dilution situation, since the CFO is the one who would have set up the convertible debt deal. But the CFO just bought a ton of shares and shows no sign of leaving.
2) the minute CEPSA came into play for Kenya, Offor started to act differently. For example, he supported the share offering in the PR, but then with CEPSA in the picture, he declined to participate in it. Could it be that it wasn't the American authorities preventing him from buying more as some assume, but maybe he was prevented through an agreement with CEPSA. I think it is quite the coincidence that Offor does a 180 from supporting to not participating just when CEPSA shows up on the scene.
3) it also explains why we have this buying that is occurring to offset the selling by the convertibles. For example, if you were CEPSA and needed 51% to control the company, then you couldn't get it all from Offor because Offor, now diluted, does not own that many shares. But after paying Offor his price for that many shares, why would you want the remainder at Offor's price, when you can simply buy on the market from the convertible bond holders who don't know any better and would prefer their guaranteed gain instead? Think about it. To get 40% of the company, you have to pay Offor 80 cents a share, let's say. To get the remaining 10%, you can simply buy at 1 cent a share on the market. That will give you an average price of about 66 cents a share. What a bargain!
4) Let's not forget too that those stock options are still in play until the end of this year. Management and the BOD got those options and they're not likely to cut a deal with CEPSA or anyone else, unless the purchase price was in the 80 cent range, so that they can get their options.
5) And then you have this unexplainable behavior by Ntephe to write all of these articles, which also suggests that he ain't worried now that the company is getting sold.
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