Great post and market insight BH. Your posts are always a must read for anyone on this board, and while I find them insightful, I am not in total agreement with them either. Common sense reminds me that a payback for the Fed's intrusion, and the length of this bull run will happen at some point, several things usually preclude a major correction (20%+) which don't appear currently. Fuel pricing is not expected to increase substantially for the next 6 months, in fact, it is widely expected to continue to decrease through the 1st quarter or 2015. Corporate balance sheets have never looked better. Share buy backs and productivity gains have served equity holders well during this bull run. What catalyst would reverse these trends? If demand were to increase, this market continues to gallop into the summer and beyond.
As long as interest rates stay low or increase slightly, and fuel prices are static, we continue to make money in the market.
Your call on the pullback and bounce in Sept/Oct was on the money, and I was in total agreement at that time. One thing is for sure, It's going to be interesting. I agree that CTIX will be a nice hedge against any major market decline, given the news we expect, and it is my largest holding at present.
GO CTIX and go Gam...ah, never mind. We'll get 'em next year!!
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