CTIX is poised for a lot of success in the near future, that said there is risk. Granted that risk is significantly lower than it was 24 months ago, but CTIX is still an asset that most are unwilling to touch. There are some on this board who suggest to just buy blindly and not worry about the future, which is foolish IMO. One must make calculated decisions that are based on an investing plan and outside considerations.
For the past four years, market conditions have been very supportive of CTIX and other extremely risky plays. Many smart folks talk openly about "the biotech bubble" and warn to invest only that which can be lost. When one asks, is this a good entry point for a stock, it is an honest question which shouldn't be wholly mocked or dismissed.
For example, I'm running away from the technology sector (which I have the most experience), especially the SOXX which is at an all-time high (since 2001 when the index was formed). Semiconductors are growth cyclicals - the key is to look historically at Enterprise value/sales as a measure over cycles because revenue is less volatile than margins (the cyclical part). EV/sales is now at 3.6X (again an all time high) - the low over this period (30 years) is 1.2X with an average of 2.4X. So, if one buying a $1 of sales today, one is paying 50% over the average valuation during this time period. This should be a warning sign for anyone looking at the SOXX or tech in general.
As I've mentioned on the board, I've been heavy in cash and have missed much of the upside run in 2014 with the exceptions of my speculative plays (CTIX included) and some heavy shorting back in October (which luckily I closed). My general musings on the state of the world is that I am still surprised by Mr. Market.
The massive stock gains from 2008-today have been primarily driven by money printing, not real economic growth. As we moved through 2014, we got all the classic signs (the play book) of a stock market top, such as commodity price softening (lower oil prices are not bullish economic signals) and defensive groups outperforming (utilities, consumer staples, health care) and small caps under performing large caps ("We need a bigger boat") and bonds outperforming.
What I'm seeing is that quants/computers make up 80-90% of daily trading. No one is shorting at scale (because they've been systematically destroyed) and the new defense is cash. My fear is that when sentiment changes, there will be no buyers on the way down (shorting requires buying, cash does not). Everyone is skewed long. However, the technical signals are also grey, I also see no selling pressure as measured by the Lowery's (I believe this is really a function of the quants and mo-mo computers). However, when the switch flips (perhaps with calendar), there may be a change in trend and the computers will be in control on the downside.
Which leads me to be really nervous about 2015 (for the general market - CTIX might be the best "counter trend of all time" based on progress). The Fed turned off the printing press in November, commodities are tanking, consumers aren't buying and real inflation is a problem (no matter what the government says).
My current thesis is that CTIX will have significant news out before we see a large trend reversal, which I'm now pegging during q1/q2 of 15. CTIX is fundamentally a news driven stock and it should be somewhat insulated from the market. But I will be watching closely to see what the herd is doing. I'm hopeful that CTIX will get to a 1B EV in the short term and be trading on the NASDAQ so I can better hedge against a potential decline using options and other derivatives.
This is just my opinion and I in no means am giving investment advice. I'm jet-lagged and up at 1 AM in my hotel room (I had a long 14 hr flight to stew on the current state of things and you guys are getting the brunt of it ;)
Still long and strong CTIX - go news!
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