Dan, Joel, Mschere ...
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DANNY:
I did answer your question in my edit, to wit:
"EDIT: I have never heard of minorty institutions "lobbying" majority individual shareholders, however, they do show their hand by their voting record, which IMO is clear at IDCC e.g. against ISO expansion last year.
So, Danny, can you please report on ANY due diligence you have done into the institutional vote??
It is disappointing that you are relying on an assumption on your part.
And, yes, I am certainly in favor of sharing our DD and analysis in a cilivilized manner as we ar doing now. It does help to clarify the root causes of our disagreements."
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JOEL,
"your 'dilution' analysis consistently overstates dilution" - well, as I have explained before, a lot has occurred the past few years (ISO expansions both approved and not approved by shreholders, etc.), so conceptually I want look at the 2000 Plan and the other ISO plans in their entirety, along with total management compensation. Accordingly, I base my dilution calcs on pre- and post- 2000 Plann approval, so I include all the expansions, grants, etc. and this wholistic approach is close to the approach ISS takes as well. Therefore, I use 48.4 M share starting point for my dilution calculations, to get a better total view of the ISO plans.
"a total of 17% of individual shareholders, need to vote NO in order for the NO vote to win" - I truly think more than that is needed from individuals (for various reasons), and I will withhold my prediction until after the polls close, but IMO you are on the right track in following my analysis. Of course, there are a lot of assumptions in any such analysis.
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Mschere - re your "Two Questions" - As for 2003, it is too much of a wild card given the large contracts still not landed. And I certainly defer to the fine work by Ronnie, you, and others on near term earnings. I have certainly provided my long term forecasts (3-5 years) for both earnings and share price. As for short term dollar impact of dilution on share price in 2003, IMO, IDCC would be a $29 stock TODAY rather a $25 stock IF we had 50M shares outstanding, rather than 58M shares outstanding. It was not that long ago that we all touted "only 50M shares outstanding" as a favorable fundamental.
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Regards,
Corp_Buyer
AI
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