*SCALPSWINGSTRADDLE*

[Zephyr]

Employment Situation
Released On 9/5/2014 8:30:00 AM For Aug, 2014
Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual
Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change 209,000 212,000 230,000 195,000 to 279,000 142,000
Unemployment Rate - Level 6.2 % 6.1 % 6.0 % to 6.2 % 6.1 %
Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change 0.0 % 0.2 % 0.1 % to 0.3 % 0.2 %
Av Workweek - All Employees 34.5 hrs 34.5 hrs 34.5 hrs to 34.6 hrs 34.5 hrs
Private Payrolls - M/M change 198,000 213,000 220,000 187,000 to 270,000 134,000
Highlights
The employment situation for August was notably disappointing. But some commentators note that August is a very revisable number.

Payroll jobs rose only 142,000, after a 212,000 increase in July and 267,000 boost in June. Net revisions for June and July were down 28,000.

The unemployment rate eased back to 6.1 percent from 6.2 percent in July.

Going back to the payroll report, private payrolls rose 134,000 in August after a 213,000 gain in July.

Overall, the latest numbers bolster the arguments for Fed doves to keep policy loose.

During the mature phase of an economic expansion, monthly payrolls gains of 150,000 or so are considered relatively healthy. In the early stages of recovery though, gains are expected to surpass 250,000 per month.

The civilian unemployment rate is a lagging indicator of economic activity. During a recession, many people leave the labor force entirely, so the jobless rate may not increase as much as expected. This means that the jobless rate may continue to increase in the early stages of recovery because more people are returning to the labor force as they believe they will be able to find work. The civilian unemployment rate tends towards greater stability than payroll employment on a monthly basis. It reveals the degree to which labor resources are utilized in the economy.