Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[bobjones2731]

Hey JL, is it an art or a science?

Thanks for the reply. I appreciate your candor and efforts in providing info. Like others have said, I do enjoy reading your posts.

What I'm looking for (and I think others) is a sign that mgmt is fighting/scratching/clawing for every penny in every deal it does. And, for whatever reason, it always seems the co. leaves a bit to be desired.

Some of that is the stench JZ left. On one hand, he was comfortable enough to say, "not a penny under $30". On the other, he left investors and analysts clueless as to what was happening. This is not conjecture; he made that bed.

Having structured deals in the "real world", I'm aware of the intricacies involved. In terms of this deal, the values can fluctuate wildly due to the subjective nature of the inputs. The question is, is it art or science?

For example, it wouldn't be shocking if a banking institution viewed amrn as a "not going concern" three years from today. Solely based on balance sheet/cash flows and sales trajectory, it's a valid argument and would make a loan very expensive. But an institution valuing the future of this drug and its marketplace would see it in a much different light.

So, the value the 2-yr option amrn purchased really would be in the eye of the beholder.

Folks can look at the Mona Lisa and, while appreciating the work, value different attributes. We can all agree that delaying this event by two years is a good thing. However, I fall into the camp of Kiwi and HD Gabor in asking several questions:

1 - Was this needed at this very moment in time? (Kowa rx growth = stronger financial position / less expensive options)
2- Does this actually get us any closer to 2017? ($0 cash inflow = possible future dilution or BK)
3 - Did we pay too much? (with this and the previous deal, $10 is the new $20)

The future will answer these questions. To sell or not to sell? I'm already numb to the price (since 2012) and will hold what I have left until R-It.

What's done is done. However, we shouldn't stop scrutinizing every deal. The manifestation of an efficient market is price discovery. If we, as capital providers, don't seek this, we lose the right to call ourselves investors.