Biotech Values

[ciotera]

Re: HCV.. full-blown crash about a year later.

As I have pointed out on several occasions, the boom-and-bust pattern is an inherent dynamic of the HCV marketplace. The specific timing may differ because of various reasons, but the pattern is there. And shortening the length of therapy (as each wave of new all-oral regimens is going to do) will only exaggerate this. Nothing fundamentally has changed about this market. It's still a low incidence, non-fatal, curable disease. Finite actionable demand and no real evidence of supply constraints (and considering the very real potential of IMs prescribing all-orals, I doubt there will ever be a supply constraint even at very high initial levels of demand). So to answer your question - yes, I do think that boom-and-bust is in store for the new all-orals.