Qualcomm Inc (QCOM)

[carranza2]

This is all my opinion so take it for what it is worth.

No one except Dr. J. and Q anticipated the WCDMA delays and no one anticipated the enormous amounts that were bid for spectrum. Those financial considerations, coupled with the fact that WCDMA will require infra expense much, much higher than originally anticipated, will make build out of any significant WCDMA coverage slow and expensive. Some carriers--the Swedes, for example--stand to lose spectrum if they don't have significant build-outs completed soon. Cheaper, less complex 3G technologies, such as EDGE, can theoretically be a stop gap measure.

The problem is that EDGE also needs lots of new infra in order to reach 3G speeds. The other problem is handsets. So far Nokia is the only manufacturer with an EDGE set on the market--it promised "millions and millions" on the shelves by the end of '02, but screwed up as it typically does when it is out of its well-developed GSM niche.

Plus, the Nokia phone is speed-limited to 118 kbps, which is not a 3G speed, at least as far as 3G was originally envisioned. The ITU might consider 118 kbps EDGE a 3G technology, I don't know.