Biotech Values

[jq1234]

HCV pricing:

I'll give a try as it is tough to estimate drug price in US as it doesn't particularly follow any logic.

Dewophile's estimate of Sofo/Ledi price of $1200/pill is reasonable as it fits closely to GILD's pricing for HIV FDC pills in the past. I thought it might be somewhat lower because both 8 and 12-week regimens are very close but above to two important psychological bars at $1200/pill: 1) GILD might want to avoid crossing $100,000 bar for 12-week regimen ($1200x84=$100,800); 2) GILD might want to lower 8-week regimen $67,200 below Olysio cost of $66,000 to deflect criticism. The solution is to price sofo/ledi at about Sovaldi plus IFN price at roughly $96,000 for 12-week regimen, roughly $1150/pill, resulting $64,400 for 8-week regimen.

If ABBV price the way you did - I really hope they do as I don't have much history to rely on - effective discount will be about 5% and 35% respectively to GILD 8- and 12-week regimens. Thus it doesn't affect your overall estimates that much.

On the other hand, GILD could blow all our estimates away by pricing sofo/ledi much higher because they truly believe their pricing power. Regardless, ABBV has 2nd mover advantage in pricing, I hope they will be bold by defying conventional pricing model since this is once in a life time opportunity.