Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Re: HCV pricing

…my running hypothesis on pricing is that GILD will offer sofo/led at about $1200 a pill, making treatment for naives $67K - which gives some cover politically since it is at a discount relative to current tx for GT2/3 of $84K. GILD has no need to discount sofo at all while they have a monopoly in this pt population. a 12-week course will run slightly over $100K, which is fine for PI failure pts who have really no other options. this maximizes - I think - profit for GILD based on pricing and market share projections.

Your thinking on pricing is consistent with mine.

As posted in #msg-94993406, I expect ABBV’s US average price for the 3-DAA regimen to be $60K.* Using your forecasts of $67K and $100K, respectively, for the US list prices of GILD’s 8w and 12w Sovaldi+Ledipasvir regimens, ABBV’s $60K would be a 10% discount to GILD’s 8w regimen and a 40% discount to GILD’s 12w regimen (based on GILD's list prices), which is consistent with the comments in #msg-100335282.

The above analysis may be somewhat off, of course; however, until the companies disclose the actual pricing, I think the above is close enough for investment purposes.

*In the EU, I expect the average price to be $25K (#msg-94993406).