How to play AEGY...GAMBLING ON THE ODDS...
In my opinion there are 3 choices...
1. "Go Long": Do nothing and see if a non-reporting company with BILLIONS of shares can overcome the "share count" with a MASSIVE HISTORIC volume increase, and "beat the math". Extremely low odds, but it has to be. It's a lottery ticket, that definitely has better odds than a "quick pick" at a local gas station, but it's never been done before. There's no assets or real estate in the merger, it's a "paper merger" for all intensive purposes, but thats why the stock is so cheap and PAY-OFF is remarkably huge. It's a Vegas style gamble that will make you rich ni doubt...it's exciting as hell to say the least.
I give "the lottery ticket" or a "sky-rocket" based on the math at hand and the required volume to push the shares about 3% chance. Great odds none the less, than a lottery ticket.
2. Play the dips immediately from the opening bell. You're worried about where the stock price will bottom out, not worried about "standing on tbe outside" looking in. You will dissappointed if you pass-uo the lottery ticket scenario, but you've been there before...no big deal. A non-reporting company on a paper merger will have great probability of an eventual monster run in the opposite direction. Actually, it JUST might be the allusive lottery ticket that most people don't gamble on. You won't make NEARLY the amount of money with a historic monster run upwards, but with the amount of shares and the volume most likely to occur regardles of how high, the outstanding number of shares says it will be an AMAZINGLY lucrative run to the bottom that will make investors more money than any other dip they have ever played. Instead of becoming millionaires, they make $250,000 and they take a vacation and gloat to their wives all weekend long.
I give the "lottery ticket" downwards going to a RECENT record low of .0025 before a nice spike upwards at only 50%. I give it a typical profitable low of .003-.004 of about 80%. Given the PREDICTABLE volume and the lack of confidence historically by shareholders, I think this is a "sweet spot" wland the PUREST FORM of "trading without emotion"...don't wait to long to jump-in...be smart.
3. I call this the "hype scenario" Where the majority get caught in the "undercurrent of ihub message boards" For their gambling information. They hear reasonable numbers like .02, .05 and they're too scared to incorporate the math, the float, and the predictable volume in their discussions on ihub since they called names, and well, the "newbies" right. They THINK they're being reasonable with low numbers like .02 and .03...and they stay up night biting off a small chunk of the pie and spending their monies, before the even earn it. They set their limit orders to what seems practicle, and their orders are never filled...some start to panic sell or for all intensive purposes, they "swim" with the others hoping for a "sky-rocket" scenario, and both groups together in a massive sea, become the "CHASERS" of the stock market.
As far as the odds in this scenario, it all depends on your own experience as "chasing" a stock. Some people know how to pull the perverbial trigger and get-out, repositiong themselves at a lower price to get their shares back. Newcomers simply don't. I would say that a mere 10% of investors really know how to "make the play" when they set a limt price to sell a stock, and the pps doesn't quite tip the scales in their favor and begins to go back down. Call this "close but no cigar" right. I give this scenario an odds of 10-15% chance since there is no math involved...no talk of the float. IHUB hype.
Tell me what you guys think. My opinion for an unbiased discussion...purely objective.
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