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US NAPM Highlights-
Surprisingly strong number; better than the 41.0-41.7 consensus estimates. Strong components include New Orders, up over 10 points. Note that the Prices component stayed tame, indicating that inflation is still in check. Hopefully, this will become a trend. Strong holiday shopping numbers will help this report going forward. If consumer spending is any indication, we should indeed have a good report after the Holidays.
Good luck all!
-Bryan
TEMPE, Ariz., Dec 3 (Reuters) - The National Association of Purchasing Management (NAPM) reported its monthly indices of manufacturing activity on Monday.
A listing of the main NAPM components follows:
Nov Oct Sept Aug July June May
PMI 44.5 39.8 47.0 47.9 43.6 44.7 42.1
Production 47.1 40.9 51.3 52.2 46.4 46.2 42.7
New Orders 48.8 38.3 50.3 53.1 46.3 48.6 45.5
Backlog Ords 38.5 36.0 43.0 44.5 42.5 42.0 40.0
Supplier Delvs 47.3 49.2 46.5 46.5 47.4 48.0 45.7
Inventories 37.9 36.8 38.9 37.7 35.8 40.8 38.7
Employment 35.7 35.1 41.2 40.8 37.2 36.3 35.0
Prices 31.6 32.5 36.3 33.9 38.7 42.3 45.2
Export Orders 49.3 45.0 45.9 51.9 48.2 45.5 45.6
Imports 49.8 46.3 50.3 49.7 47.3 48.0 46.6
Net stock fund inflows for the month of October.
Turning tide?
September = capitulation?
You be the judge.
WASHINGTON, Nov 29 (Reuters) - The Investment Company
Institute on Thursday issued the following new cash flows into
mutual funds for the month of October (millions of dollars):
STOCK FUNDS:
Oct'01 Sept'01 Jan-Oct'01 Jan-Oct'00
758 -29,353-R 14,884 292,815
MONEY MARKET FUNDS
Oct'01 Sept'01 Jan-Oct'01 Jan-Oct'00
73,949 53,886-R 340,840 86,859
MUNICIPAL BOND MUTUAL FUNDS:
Oct'01 Sept'01 Jan-Oct'01 Jan-Oct'00
1,962 -339-R 11,683 -14,379
HYBRID MUTUAL FUNDS:
Oct'01 Sept'01 Jan-Oct'01 Jan-Oct'00
1,560 -1,269-R 6,045 -29,457
TAXABLE BOND MUTUAL FUNDS:
Oct'01 Sept'01 Jan-Oct'01 Jan-Oct'00
11,547 8,000-R 70,760 -33,411
Nasdaq Short Interest Highlights
*Short interest in Nasdaq at record level. Impetus for a sustained rally?
From Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Stock Market Announces Open Short-Interest Positions
In Nasdaq Stocks For November 2001
In summary, short interest in all 4,083 Nasdaq® securities totaled 4,175,725,953 shares for November, compared with 4,092 issues and 4,062,363,080 shares in October. This is 2.20 days’ average daily volume, compared with last month’s average of 1.97 days.
The total Nasdaq short positions for the preceding 13
months and current month follow:
Settlement Date Total Short Interest Number of Securities
October 13, 2000 3,386,001,792 4,739
November 15, 2000 3,379,629,386 4,694
December 15, 2000 3,497,263,482 4,585
January 12, 2001 3,452,282,664 4,588
February 15, 2001 3,444,789,352 4,552
March 15, 2001 3,608,599,871 4,443
April 13, 2001 3,764,094,547 4,445
May 15, 2001 3,713,132,045 4,467
June 15, 2001 3,821,032,805 4,392
July 13, 2001 4,013,408,493 4,293
August 15, 2001 4,062,490,704 4,220
September 14, 2001 4,166,310,456 4,135
October 15, 2001 4,062,363,080 4,092
November 15, 2001 4,175,725,953 4,083
Largest Short Positions
Rank Nov. 15 Oct. 15 Change
1 Cisco Systems Inc r 104,840,498 109,962,329 -5,121,831
2 Intel Corp r 90,261,854 77,107,462 13,154,392
3 Microsoft Corp r 71,139,744 62,615,407 8,524,337
4 Nextel Communic r 58,571,304 47,837,870 10,733,434
5 Level 3 Communicat r 56,737,390 58,477,362 -1,739,972
6 JDS Uniphase r 54,993,658 65,607,095 -10,613,437
7 Amazon.com Inc r 51,852,774 48,741,048 3,111,726
8 Oracle Corp r 50,721,574 48,768,739 1,952,835
9 Dell Computer r 46,528,629 57,824,254 -11,295,625
10 XO Communications 44,067,387 31,737,171 12,330,216
11 WorldCom Group r 41,350,129 44,215,423 -2,865,294
12 Sun Microsystems r 40,926,925 27,151,111 13,775,814
13 Metromedia Fiber 38,003,707 31,083,987 6,919,720
14 Yahoo! Inc r 37,718,115 40,526,033 -2,807,918
15 Sanmina Corp r 33,832,693 27,375,298 6,457,395
RECESSION - It's official.
The Business-Cycle Peak of March 2001
Business Cycle Dating Committee, National Bureau of Economic Research
http://www.nber.org/cycles/november2001/recessnov.html
November 26, 2001
The NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee has determined that a peak in business activity occurred in the U.S. economy in March 2001. A peak marks the end of an expansion and the beginning of a recession. The determination of a peak date in March is thus a determination that the expansion that began in March 1991 ended in March 2001 and a recession began. The expansion lasted exactly 10 years, the longest in the NBER's chronology.
The committee is satisfied that the total contraction in the economy is sufficient to merit the determination that a recession is underway. The committee makes this determination by asking itself hypothetically what decision it would make if a turnaround in the economy started just after the most recently observed data. If, despite such a turnaround, the episode would qualify as a recession, the committee moves ahead to the second step, the determination of the date of the peak. Prior to the arrival of the data for October 2001, the committee was not sure that the contraction met the criterion. With a cumulative decline in employment approaching one percent and the very large decline in industrial production, the committee has concluded that the criterion has been met now.
Figure 1. Current Employment
The dark line shows the movement of employment in 1999-2001 and the dashed line the average over the past 6 recessions.
Figure 2. Current Industrial Production
The dark line shows the movement of industrial production in 1999-2001 and the dashed line the average over the past 6 recessions.
Figure 3. Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales
The dark line shows the movement of manufacturing and trade in 1999-2001 and the dashed line the average over the past 6 recessions.
Source: The Conference Board (http://www.globalindicators.org)
Figure 4. Current Real Personal Income Less Transfers
The dark line shows the movement of income in 1999-2001 and the dashed line the average over the past 6 recessions.
Source: The Conference Board (http://www.globalindicators.org)
================================================================
http://www.nber.org/
The NBER is a private, nonprofit, nonpartisan research organization dedicated to promoting a greater understanding of how the economy works. Our research is conducted by more than 600 university professors around the country, the leading scholars in their fields.
Oil Prices Skid on OPEC Move
Highlights
http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/011115/opec_meeting_4.html
VIENNA, Austria (AP) -- In a desperate effort to stabilize plunging oil prices, OPEC has made a conditional promise to cut crude output that ranks as one of the cartel's weakest and most uncertain agreements in recent memory. But prices extended their losses Thursday on world oil markets.
OPEC agreed Wednesday to reduce its daily production target for oil by 1.5 million barrels, or 6 percent, but only if non-OPEC producers share the burden by making a deep cut of their own.
However, industry analysts said major non-OPEC producers are reluctant to cooperate unless they first see OPEC members make a serious effort to keep from busting their own quotas. OPEC currently pumps at least 800,000 barrels above its daily target of 23.2 million barrels.
Confronted with a sharp drop in global demand for crude, OPEC has cajoled, threatened and warned of a price war if producers outside the group refuse to close ranks with it.
OPEC secretary-general Ali Rodriguez: "We are not putting pressure on others. We are calling for contributions"
But Rodriguez, pressed by reporters to say what OPEC would do if non-members failed to cut 500,000 barrels a day, replied: "We'll cross the river if we arrive at the river.
Oil markets fell farther Thursday after a huge sell-off on Wednesday.
http://www.wtrg.com/daily/brentcrudeoilprice.html
Also from Reuters
Kuwaiti Oil Minister Adel al-Subaih said on Thursday that he would not be surprised to see oil prices fall as low as $10 a barrel. He added: "We are not talking about a price war. That would mean we would have to dump our oil. This we do not intend to do."
A STARK COMPARISON TO LAST WINTER:
Effect on Gasoline
http://www.wtrg.com/daily/hufclose.gif
http://www.worldoil.com/WO_MAG/Nov-01/01-11_monthlyusgas.gif
Effect on Heating Oil
http://www.wtrg.com/daily/hofclose.gif
A gentleman once pointed out to me an inverse correlation between the US $$$ & oil prices. Wondering if it still holds true.
I would say that depends on your perspective. If you look at the performance of the US$ Index against Oil, there really is no overwhelming trend. This may be due in part to the launch of the Euro in 1999. Since it's inception, the Euro has weakened against the US$. FWIW, here's Oil and the USD Index over the last decade or so. **It's not perfectly aligned, but it's pretty close.
Oil-Brent Vs. US$ Index (Monthly data)
9-11 Attacks Pushed Economy Into A Mild Recession
"The September 11 attacks pushed the U.S. economy into a recession that will be mild both in depth and duration," said Harvey Rosenblum, NABE President and Dallas Fed Senior Vice President and Director of Research. "The rapid easing of monetary and fiscal policy this time around should enable the economy to return to positive growth more quickly than usual and with lower interest rates and inflation than during the 1990s expansion."
Survey Summary
* NABE panelists expect negative GDP growth in the last two quarters of 2001, with declines of 0.4 percent in the third quarter and 2.0 percent in the fourth quarter, which marks a large downward revision since the September survey medians of respective GDP gains of 1.4 percent and 2.3 percent.
* Panelists say that it is 90 percent likely that the economy is in a recession. The recession is expected to be mild, however, with positive GDP growth rates of 1.1 percent in 2001 and 1.3 percent in 2002, with 82 percent of panelists expecting a return to sustained, positive growth in the first half of 2002.
* The 9-11 terrorist attacks were estimated to have negatively impacted real GDP growth by 1 percent in Q3, 3.0 percent in Q4, and 1.6 percent in Q1 of 2002, with 2001 annual revisions mostly in inventories and trade, but 2002 revisions primarily in consumption spending and business fixed investment.
* The projected unemployment rate for 2001 was raised from 4.6 percent to 4.8 percent, while the projected rate for 2002 was revised upward sharply from 4.9 percent to 5.9 percent.
* Ninety percent of the NABE panelists thought that the economy would return to positive growth more quickly than in a typical business cycle due to the rapid easing of monetary and fiscal policy, with 60 percent of the effect attributed to monetary policy.
* Economists expect generally lower inflation and interest rates in the next business expansion, and all but six of 33 NABE panelists expect the Federal budget balance to be in surplus by the end of the next cycle.
The NABE Outlook presents the consensus of macroeconomic forecasts made by a panel of 33 professional forecasters from the membership of the National Association for Business Economics. The survey was taken during November.
http://www.nabe.com/publib/macsum.htm
RETAIL SALES !!!
Take a real good look. This is a 180 degree turn from last months report!! Even the core report (ex-autos) was higher than expected. This should be a great psychological boost for the consumer. Let's hope it lasts through the holiday shopping season.
Every component that got whacked last month is up significantly: building equip, clothing, sporting goods, non-store retailers, food/drink, etc. And of course, take a look at what zero percent financing does for autos (up 26.4%)!
Rock on,
-B
WASHINGTON, Nov 14 (Reuters) - Commerce Department
seasonally adjusted data on U.S. retail sales.
Percent Changes: Oct Sep Rev From Oct01/00
Retail Sales 7.1 -2.2 -2.4 7.5
Excluding Autos 1.0 -1.5 -1.6 1.6
Motor vehicles/parts 26.4 -4.5 -4.6 25.9
Furniture/home furn -0.5 -4.2 -1.5 -4.3
Electronics/appliances 0.7 -1.4 -1.7 -0.4
Building/garden equip 2.8 -2.6 -2.2 7.4
Food/beverage 0.3 0.5 0.4 3.3
Grocery stores 0.2 0.6 0.5 3.1
Health/personal care 1.7 0.3 0.8 8.5
Gasoline stations -6.4 2.8 3.0 -8.0
Clothing/accessories 6.9 -5.9 -5.9 UNCH
Sporting goods/hobbies 3.0 -2.2 -1.5 11.1
General merchandise 0.7 -0.5 -0.4 1.9
Department stores 0.6 -1.6 -1.6 -2.0
Misc store retailers 1.6 -2.5 -1.9 2.2
Non-store retailers 4.4 -7.0 -8.0 -9.1
Food/drink services 1.4 -2.5 -5.1 3.5
Billions of Dlrs: Oct Sep Rev From Oct01/00
Retail Sales 306.83 286.41 286.52 285.46
Excluding Autos 219.43 217.28 217.51 216.02
Motor vehicles/parts 87.40 69.13 69.01 69.44
Furniture/home furn 7.36 7.40 7.54 7.69
Electronics/appliances 7.23 7.18 7.19 7.26
Building/garden equip 24.77 24.10 24.23 23.06
Food/beverage 40.51 40.40 40.37 39.20
Grocery stores 36.60 36.54 36.49 35.50
Health/personal care 14.79 14.54 14.61 13.63
Gasoline stations 19.19 20.51 20.55 20.87
Clothing/accessories 14.29 13.36 13.36 14.29
Sporting goods/hobbies 7.47 7.26 7.32 6.73
General merchandise 35.02 34.78 34.81 34.35
Department stores 19.44 19.31 19.31 19.84
Misc store retailers 9.44 9.29 9.43 9.23
Non-store retailers 12.64 12.11 12.24 13.90
Food/drink services 26.73 26.37 25.86 25.82
FORECAST:
Reuters survey of U.S. economists forecast:
U.S. Oct retail sales +2.7 pct
U.S. Oct retail sales ex-autos +0.2 pct
HISTORICAL COMPARISONS/NOTES:
U.S. OCT RETAIL SALES RISE BIGGEST ON RECORD
U.S. OCT CARS/PARTS SALES RISE BIGGEST ON RECORD
Wednesday, 14 November 2001 13:30:00
Consumer Sentiment Index 83.5 (Nov) vs. 82.7 (Oct)
Dismal Scientist
Consumers continue to show surprising resilience following the September 11 attacks, bioterrorism scares, and an economic recession. Both of the main component indices of the survey showed a slight improvement in the mid-November release.
http://www.dismal.com/dismal/dsp/release.asp?r=usa_csent
NEW YORK, Nov 9 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer sentiment rose unexpectedly in early November as a rebound in sickly U.S. stocks helped Americans shrug off mounting job cuts and deteriorating economic conditions since Sept. 11, market sources said on Friday.
The University of Michigan's preliminary November consumer sentiment index rose to 83.5 from 82.7 in October. That stood in sharp contrast to analysts' forecasts for a fall to 78.7 and a steep drop in the Conference Board's October consumer confidence index.
The current conditions index, which gauges Americans' views on their present financial situation, rose to 94.9 in November from 94.0 in October. And the expectations index, which tracks consumers' attitudes about the coming year, edged up to 76.2 in November from 75.5 in October.
The preliminary consumer sentiment survey is based on telephone interviews with 250 Americans across the country on personal finances, business conditions and buying conditions. The survey is updated later in the month. The survey, conducted since 1946, is released directly to subscribers.
Friday, 9 November 2001 14:48:21
Inflation...... What inflation?
October PPI -1.6%, Core (Excl food & energy) -0.5%
As expected, energy was the biggest loser last month (good!).
Dismal Scientist
Inflation remains absent from the economy, as the Producer Price Index dropped by 1.6% in October compared to the previous month. Sharply lower energy prices contributed to the drop. The core index, excluding the more volatile items food and energy, decreased by 0.5%. The decline in both indices has exceeded expectations, which called for a more moderate drop.
http://www.dismalscientist.com/dismal/dsp/release.asp?r=usa_ppi
WASHINGTON, Nov 9 (Reuters) - U.S. Labor Department monthly producer price index (1982 equals 100, except where noted):
Seasonally Adj Unadjusted
Oct Sept Oct01/00
Finished Goods -1.6 0.4 -0.4
Less Food, Energy -0.5 0.3 0.8
Consumer Foods -0.4 0.2 2.8
Energy Goods -7.7 0.9 -9.5
Finished Goods Index 139.6 141.7 N/A
Residential NatGas -6.0 -5.0 -13.1
Gasoline -21.2 6.3 -21.3
Heating Oil -20.9 4.5 -30.2
Tobacco Products unch unch 10.8
Passenger Cars -4.7 1.3 -2.4
Capital Equipment -0.7 0.1 unch
Pharmaceutical Preps unch 0.4 N/A
Intermediate Goods -1.5 0.1 -2.4
Less Food, Energy -0.4 -0.1 -1.2
Manufact Materials -0.5 -0.2 -1.9
Construction Materials -0.3 -0.1 0.1
Intermed.Energy Goods -7.6 1.0 -10.8
Crude Goods -9.1 -4.1 -25.0
Less Food, Energy -1.7 0.2 -10.8
Food/Feedstuffs -2.6 1.1 5.2
Nonfood Materials -13.8 -7.6 -39.1
Energy Materials -19.2 -10.7 -48.1
Petroleum -19.6 0.1 -36.2
ECB takes bold action; cuts interest rates by 50 basis points.
BBC News:
The European Central Bank (ECB) has slashed its key interest rate by half a percentage point to 3.25%, its fourth cut this year and bigger than many economists had dared to hope.
Financial markets had been optimistic the ECB would cut interest rates by at least one quarter of a percentage point to shore up the eurozone's flagging economy.
'Long overdue'
The ECB has been criticised for failing to match the aggressive action of the US Federal Reserve, which has cut rates 10 times this year to stimulate growth.
The case for action has been mounting fast following the 11 September terrorist attacks and the subsequent string of gloomy economic data.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1644000/1644903.stm
Global liquidity continues. Will it bolster the equity markets?
BBC News
The Bank of England has cut its main interest rate by a half point to 4%. This is the seventh cut the Bank has ordered this year, as Britain strives to shield its economy from the global slowdown, and takes UK rates down to the lowest level since January 1963.
The cut was more aggressive than had been expected, and will please industrialists and unions, which had earlier called for action to boost Britain's flagging manufacturing sector.
"World economic activity had weakened further, and evidence on the outlook now suggests that the global slowdown may be somewhat deeper and longer than previously thought," the MPC said in its post-meeting report.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1644000/1644767.stm
Layoffs stabilizing?
Jobless claims lowest since Sept 15th.
WASHINGTON, Nov 8 (Reuters) - U.S. Labor Department report of initial state jobless benefit claims, seasonally adjusted.
Week Ended Initial Claims 4-Week Avg. Continued Claims
11/03/01 450,000 487,250 Unavailable
10/27/01 496,000-r 496,000-r 3,724,000
10/20/01 507,000-r 505,750-r 3,690,000-r
10/13/01 496,000 493,000 3,638,000-r
California -4,473
Kansas -2,105
Michigan +3,895
North Carolina +3,257
Georgia +3,162
Virginia +1,763
50 Basis-point cut by the FED; risk toward weakness
WASHINGTON, Nov 6 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve cut U.S. interest rates by an aggressive half-percentage point on Tuesday for the third time since the Sept. 11 attacks and signaled its readiness to do more to help an economy widely believed to be in recession.
The Fed lowered its key federal funds rate for overnight bank loans for the tenth time this year to 2 percent -- the lowest level since the Kennedy administration in 1961. The central bank also dropped its more symbolic discount rate by a half-point to 1.5 percent.
The latest cut comes against an increasingly grim backdrop of rising unemployment and eroding confidence. The third quarter logged the sharpest quarterly contraction in national economic activity since the last recession in 1990-91.
In its statement, the central bank said it still saw weakness, rather than price pressures, as the main threat to the U.S. economy, a sign it was ready to cut rates further should gross domestic product continue to shrink as most private forecasters expect it will into early next year.
Tuesday, 6 November 2001 19:20:02
After the 9-11 attacks many were talking about ways in which consumers could reduce their oil consumption even if only by a token amount. Sure, we are in a recession....that's obvious. But isn't it interesting how oil is reacting in all of this, right on the heels of U.S. Winter? You would think that oil would be on the high end of the range but it's sinking, even amid talk of production cuts. Hell, I'm not complaining. Nobody wants to see energy bills like last Winter!!
========================================================================================
http://www.wtrg.com/daily/crudeoilprice.html
OPEC ministers warn of 'Price War'
The United Arab Emirates and Qatar said today a battle for market share loomed unless producers cooperated to prevent an oil glut, as world demand grows at its slowest rate in 17 years. Russia, Norway and Mexico, the three largest non-OPEC exporters, have resisted the calls to lower output.
The oil minister from Qatar, the smallest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, said non-members risk a plunge in prices to late-1998 levels of around $10 a barrel if they don't help remove at least 1 million barrels a day from the world oil market. OPEC, which pumps about 40 percent of the world's oil, will not keep reducing supply if others just replace it with their production, he said.
Lower demand from consuming nations has helped send OPEC's crude oil index to $17.81 a barrel, the lowest level since July 8, 1999. With the so-called basket price down 33 percent since Sept. 11, OPEC members may vote for another output quota reduction at a Nov. 14 meeting.
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Energy%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_energy&r...
Oil hits 2-year low.
LONDON, Nov 6 (Reuters) - Oil prices hit a two-year low despite plans by OPEC producers to reduce supply again in the face of slowing global demand. Prices have now slumped by 31 percent since September 10th the day before suicide air attacks on the United States darkened an already gloomy economic outlook. U.S. light crude lost 24 cents to $19.78.
OPEC ministers lining up to endorse the cartel's fourth output cut this year, ahead of a their November 14 meeting in Vienna, have made little impression on a market focused instead on poor demand prospects. "Around one million barrels per day is being talked about to ease and offset overproduction," Venezuelan Oil Minister Alvaro Silva said late on Monday.
"The consensus is quite advanced but it is not fixed. We are holding bilateral meetings, checking figures and the final decision will be taken within OPEC." Some dealers now are saying that OPEC may need to cut more than the heavily trailed million barrels daily if it wants to prop up prices. So far nothing concrete has emerged from OPEC's ranks to suggest that a larger cut is being contemplated.
OPEC continues to target a central $25 price target but its crude on Monday was valued at just $17.81, a two-year low. "If the world economy cannot absorb a huge amount of oil, then why would you want to produce it?" a source close to the Saudi oil ministry said on Tuesday. A new cut would take OPEC supply limits below the levels of April 1999, when the cartel completed a series of curbs that eventually lifted oil from $10 to $35 a barrel. OPEC already has sliced 3.5 million bpd this year, reducing output quotas for 10 members by 13 percent to 23.2 million bpd. Despite its efforts prices remain weak partly because speculators are betting that weak demand will keep stocks plentiful even if OPEC withdraws supply.
Rising supply from non-OPEC exporters such as Mexico, Angola and Russia has not helped. Russia's Energy Ministry on Monday said exports for the first 10 months of the year rose to 3.04 million bpd from 2.82 million in the same period last year. OPEC has been lobbying oil exporters outside of the cartel's umbrella to join any further supply curbs, but so far only tiny Oman has pledged support. But Saudi Arabia is not ready to give up yet. Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi is expected to visit Russia and Norway ahead of the November 14 meeting.
((London newsroom))
Tuesday, 6 November 2001 14:42:25
2-Year low for Gasoline
WASHINGTON, Nov 5 (Reuters) – U.S. retail gasoline prices fell over the last week to their lowest level since the summer of 1999, dropping 2.9 cents to $1.206 a gallon, the Energy Department reported on Monday. The latest national pump price is down 32 cents from a year ago, according to the Energy Information Administration's weekly survey of more than 800 service stations.
Drivers have not seen regular unleaded gasoline this cheap since the week of Aug. 9, 1999, according to EIA. The price for gasoline has declined 32 cents a gallon since the Sept. 11 attacks, reflecting a drop in petroleum demand that has led to a rise in fuel supplies and cheaper crude oil.
http://www.worldoil.com/INFOCENTER/STATISTICS_DETAIL.asp?Statfile=_monthlyusgas
The national average price for cleaner-burning reformulated gasoline, sold at about one-third of the stations in cities and smoggier areas, was down 3.9 cents to $1.28 a gallon. The West Coast continued to have the most expensive gasoline in the nation, with prices in the region falling 4 cents a gallon to $1.432. Motorists in the lower Atlantic states again had the cheapest fuel. Prices in that region were down 3.4 cents to $1.098 a gallon. San Francisco kept its top spot among major cities in fuel costs, although gasoline prices fell 3.6 cents to $1.647 a gallon. Houston again had the best deal at the pump, with gasoline down 5.9 cents to $1.10 a gallon. The report also showed gasoline prices in New York City down 3.9 cents to $1.305; down 6 cents in Los Angeles to $1.276; and down 5 cents in Chicago to $1.205.
Monday, 5 November 2001 22:22:44
Free money talks. BS walks.
October US auto sales = all-time record !!
Up 24.4% ***mainly due to huge incentives like zero percent financing. Truly impressive. Viva la consumer!
-B
========================================================
DETROIT, Nov 1 (Reuters) - The following chart represents U.S. light vehicle sales totals, individual automaker results and market share for the month of October. The seasonally adjusted annual rate is calculated using seasonal factors supplied by the U.S. Commerce Department.
INDUSTRY TOTALS
OCTOBER 2001 OCTOBER 2000 % CHG
Total Industry 1,726,608 1,336,759 +24.4%
Domestic Car 625,886 512,383 +17.6%
Domestic Truck 818,316 605,251 +30.2%
Import Car 190,553 153,098 +19.9%
Import Truck 91,853 66,027 +34.0%
Dom+Imp Car 816,439 665,481 +18.1%
Dom+Imp Truck 910,169 671,278 +30.6%
Dom Vehicles 1,444,202 1,117,634 +24.4%
Imp Vehicles 282,406 219,125 +24.1%
YR-TO-DATE PRV YEAR
% CHG
Total Industry 14,533,570 14,920,969 -2.6%
Domestic Car 5,516,154 5,926,728 -6.9%
Domestic Truck 6,484,283 6,587,069 -1.6%
Import Car 1,742,713 1,710,783 +1.9%
Import Truck 790,420 696,389 +13.5%
Dom+Imp Car 7,258,867 7,637,511 -5.0%
Dom+Imp Truck 7,274,703 7,283,458 -0.1%
Dom Vehicles 12,000,437 12,513,797 -4.1%
Imp Vehicles 2,533,133 2,407,172 +5.2%
--------------------------------------------------------
INDIVIDUAL COMPANIES AND MARKET SHARE
Oct01 Market Yr-to-Date Market
Maker Volume % Chng Share Volume % Chng Share
=============================================================
GM* 546,093 +31.0 31.6 4,111,260 -2.8 28.3
Ford* 400,893 +36.3 23.2 3,206,762 -7.5 22.1
Chrysler* 209,478 +5.1 12.1 1,921,846 -11.5 13.2
Toyota 164,084 +27.5 9.5 1,458,869 +7.3 10.0
Honda 105,572 +18.8 6.1 1,022,604 +3.3 7.0
Nissan 63,423 +8.2 3.7 585,913 -9.0 4.0
Hyundai 34,051 +87.7 2.0 294,523 +40.9 2.0
Volkswagen 30,032 +6.6 1.7 298,820 -1.1 2.1
Mitsubishi 27,726 +13.3 1.6 257,698 -2.3 1.8
Kia 24,523 +72.0 1.4 189,424 +41.9 1.3
Mazda 23,660 +6.0 1.4 231,163 +6.6 1.6
Mercedes 18,443 -3.4 1.1 168,548 -0.3 1.2
Subaru 17,442 +12.4 1.0 153,896 +7.4 1.1
BMW 16,122 -2.3 0.9 176,606 +16.8 1.2
Volvo 10,455 -3.2 0.6 107,324 +2.8 0.7
Isuzu 6,950 +37.6 0.4 73,108 -9.4 0.5
Suzuki 6,245 +36.5 0.4 55,605 +5.2 0.4
Audi 6,154 -2.9 0.4 69,812 +5.2 0.5
Saab 4,820 +26.1 0.3 32,595 +1.1 0.2
Jaguar 4,126 +31.3 0.2 33,970 -5.3 0.2
Daewoo 2,511 -51.8 0.1 43,169 -27.7 0.3
Land Rover 2,264 -3.5 0.1 20,536 -7.5 0.1
Porsche 1,541 -13.8 0.1 19,519 +2.3 0.1
Others 0 None 0.0 0 None None
==============================================================
Total 1,726,608 +24.4 100.0 14,533,570 -2.6 100.0
-------------------------------------------------------------
NOTE: Seasonally adjusted annual rate (Millions):
Oct 2001 Oct 2000
Vehicles 21.33 Share 16.99 Share
Dom Car 7.80 36.6% 6.56 38.6%
Dom Truck 9.95 46.6% 7.57 44.6%
Imp Car 2.44 11.4% 2.02 11.9%
Imp Truck 1.13 5.3% 0.84 4.9%
My gosh! NAPM was awful.
However, something to note:
The resiliency of the USD and the stock market.
In the face of one of the worst monthly declines in manufacturing in the NAPM report ever, the dollar and the equity markets both rebounded with surprising strength.
Look at the QQQ reaction right after the NAPM release. Big drop followed by an impressive recovery:
Looks like there is some underlying strength in the markets. I hope it continues.
-B
Consumers curtailed spending and are maintaining savings:
Personal Income and Spending
Post 9-11 attacks, consumers held on to their cash. I would not expect this to become a trend, as Holiday shopping season is right around the corner, and ailing retailers will surely be discounting this year to lure shoppers. Looking at the numbers, the good thing is the savings rate is increasing (4.7% largest since 1998). So there is cash to be spent. Question is: Now that we have absorbed the initial impact of 9-11, will we be willing to resume spending?
Best,
-B
Here's the table:
WASHINGTON, Nov 1 (Reuters) - U.S. Commerce Department personal income and spending estimates, in seasonally adjusted annual rates.
Percent Changes: Sept Aug (Prev) July (Prev)
Income (Current Dlrs) unch 0.1 unch 0.4 0.5
Disposable Income:
Current Dlrs -1.1 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7
Chain '96 Dlrs -0.6 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.3
Consumption:
Current Dlrs -1.8 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2
Chain '96 Dlrs -1.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3
Billions of Dlrs: Sept Aug (Prev) July (Prev)
Income 8,780 8,779 8,784 8,773 8,782
Disposable Income 7,571 7,658 7,651 7,513 7,510
Personal Outlays 7,213 7,345 7,338 7,323 7,324
Pers.Consumption 6,980 7,110 7,103 7,087 7,089
Durable Goods 823 850 847 853 854
Non-Durable Goods 2,042 2,069 2,069 2,063 2,065
Services 4,115 4,191 4,187 4,171 4,170
Personal Saving 357 313 313 190 186
Pct Saving Rate 4.7 4.1 4.1 2.5 2.5
Billions of Dlrs: Sept Aug (Prev) July (Prev)
Wages and Salaries 5,131 5,129 5,128 5,128 5,133
Manufacturing 840 843 844 848 848
Service Industries 1,972 1,968 1,964 1,964 1,965
Government 816 812 811 808 809
Proprietors'Income 747 757 761 752 754
Farm 34 32 32 30 29
Non-Farm 713 725 729 723 725
Jobless Claims -Just a hair better than expected:
WASHINGTON, Nov 1 (Reuters) - U.S. Labor Department report of initial state jobless benefit claims, seasonally adjusted.
Week Ended Initial Claims 4-Week Avg. Continued Claims
10/27/01 499,000 497,250 Unavailable
10/20/01 509,000-r 506,250-r 3,692,000
10/13/01 496,000 493,000 3,637,000-r
10/06/01 485,000 467,250 3,600,000-r
Thanks, Matt.
Spoke to a friend. I think I'm sorted.
-B
30-Year T-Bond (E) December 01
http://exchanges.barchart.com/intra/cbot/JZBZ1.gif
Arrrrrrrrrrrrrrg!!
NEW YORK, Oct 31 (Reuters) - U.S. benchmark 10-year Treasury notes rallied more than a full point on Wednesday after the Treasury said it would no longer sell 30-year bonds, sparking a powerful bond market rally.
"The (30-year) bond is dragging up all other areas of the Treasury curve without a doubt. Stocks are also helping," said William Sullivan, market analyst at Morgan Stanley, referring to an early afternoon dip in the Dow Jones industrial average.
In its quarterly refunding announcement, Treasury said it would sell no more 30-year nominal or inflation-indexed bonds, taking the market by surprise and instantly giving the long bond a scarcity value, sending prices up more than 5 points.
At 11:05 a.m. EST (1605 GMT), benchmark 10 year notes were up more than a full point at 105-24/32, yielding 4.27 percent.
((U.S. Financial Markets, +646-223-6300))
Check out this move: One of the biggest in recent history.
30-Year T-Bond (E) December 01
http://www.cbot.com/cbot/charts/detail/0,1551,13+44+122+ZB+Z1+2+4,00.html
Wednesday, 31 October 2001 17:58:08
Agreed. Most of the numbers this week will fully reflect the Sept-11 attacks, and we all know (and expect) the stats to be poor. I believe today's GDP and Chicago PMI are pointing out underlying (potential) economic strength. Going forward, this will be confirmed. This Holiday buying season may bolster the recovery. But yes, continued strength into the new year will be key.
Good luck,
-B