Consumers curtailed spending and are maintaining savings:
Personal Income and Spending
Post 9-11 attacks, consumers held on to their cash. I would not expect this to become a trend, as Holiday shopping season is right around the corner, and ailing retailers will surely be discounting this year to lure shoppers. Looking at the numbers, the good thing is the savings rate is increasing (4.7% largest since 1998). So there is cash to be spent. Question is: Now that we have absorbed the initial impact of 9-11, will we be willing to resume spending?
Best,
-B
Here's the table:
WASHINGTON, Nov 1 (Reuters) - U.S. Commerce Department personal income and spending estimates, in seasonally adjusted annual rates.
Percent Changes: Sept Aug (Prev) July (Prev)
Income (Current Dlrs) unch 0.1 unch 0.4 0.5
Disposable Income:
Current Dlrs -1.1 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7
Chain '96 Dlrs -0.6 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.3
Consumption:
Current Dlrs -1.8 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2
Chain '96 Dlrs -1.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3
Billions of Dlrs: Sept Aug (Prev) July (Prev)
Income 8,780 8,779 8,784 8,773 8,782
Disposable Income 7,571 7,658 7,651 7,513 7,510
Personal Outlays 7,213 7,345 7,338 7,323 7,324
Pers.Consumption 6,980 7,110 7,103 7,087 7,089
Durable Goods 823 850 847 853 854
Non-Durable Goods 2,042 2,069 2,069 2,063 2,065
Services 4,115 4,191 4,187 4,171 4,170
Personal Saving 357 313 313 190 186
Pct Saving Rate 4.7 4.1 4.1 2.5 2.5
Billions of Dlrs: Sept Aug (Prev) July (Prev)
Wages and Salaries 5,131 5,129 5,128 5,128 5,133
Manufacturing 840 843 844 848 848
Service Industries 1,972 1,968 1,964 1,964 1,965
Government 816 812 811 808 809
Proprietors'Income 747 757 761 752 754
Farm 34 32 32 30 29
Non-Farm 713 725 729 723 725
FORECASTS:
Reuters survey of Wall Street economists forecast:
U.S. Sept personal income +0.1 pct
U.S. Sept personal spending -0.9 pct
HISTORICAL COMPARISONS:
U.S. SEPT PERSONAL SPENDING DROP BIGGEST SINCE JAN 1987
U.S. SEPT PERSONAL SAVING RATE LARGEST SINCE 4.9 PCT IN AUG 1998
Thursday, 1 November 2001 13:30:00
