Scribbles

[Bryan (a.k.a. Bryan)]

US NAPM Highlights-


Surprisingly strong number; better than the 41.0-41.7 consensus estimates. Strong components include New Orders, up over 10 points. Note that the Prices component stayed tame, indicating that inflation is still in check. Hopefully, this will become a trend. Strong holiday shopping numbers will help this report going forward. If consumer spending is any indication, we should indeed have a good report after the Holidays.

Good luck all!
-Bryan



TEMPE, Ariz., Dec 3 (Reuters) - The National Association of Purchasing Management (NAPM) reported its monthly indices of manufacturing activity on Monday.

A listing of the main NAPM components follows:

 
                Nov    Oct    Sept   Aug    July  June   May 
 PMI            44.5   39.8   47.0   47.9   43.6  44.7   42.1 
 Production     47.1   40.9   51.3   52.2   46.4  46.2   42.7 
 New Orders     48.8   38.3   50.3   53.1   46.3  48.6   45.5 
 Backlog Ords   38.5   36.0   43.0   44.5   42.5  42.0   40.0 
 Supplier Delvs 47.3   49.2   46.5   46.5   47.4  48.0   45.7 
 Inventories    37.9   36.8   38.9   37.7   35.8  40.8   38.7 
 Employment     35.7   35.1   41.2   40.8   37.2  36.3   35.0 
 Prices         31.6   32.5   36.3   33.9   38.7  42.3   45.2 
 Export Orders  49.3   45.0   45.9   51.9   48.2  45.5   45.6 
 Imports        49.8   46.3   50.3   49.7   47.3  48.0   46.6

We're not out of the woods yet though.
"The overall picture is one of continued decline in manufacturing activity during the month of November," added Ore. "The manufacturing decline is now in its 16th month and even with this month’s signs of encouragement, it takes time to build a recovery across the sector.

http://www.napm.org/NAPMReport/ROB122001.cfm


FORECAST:
Reuters survey of economists on average forecast: Purchasing Managers Index 41.7 in November from 39.8 in October.

ADDITIONAL COMMENTS:
"The trend is definitely in the right direction, but it is too soon to claim an eminent recovery," the report said. Based on this report, the sector regained a significant portion of the output lost in October.

THE SURVEY:
The Manufacturing NAPM Report On Business is based on data provided monthly by purchasing executives at over 350 industrial companies and it reflects changes in the current month compared with the previous month. Responses are raw data and are never changed.


((U.S. Financial Markets Desk))
03 December 2001 15:02:10