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This is the article, right?
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/05/13/5-key-takeaways-from-anavex-life-sciences-second-q.aspx?source=iaasitlnk0000003
His attempt to conflagrate a miniscule 3% increase in share count over last year into "OMG 3% ! Run fer the hills! Your stake is dwindling into nothing! Oh yes. Investors are furious! Furious I tell yah! Woop woop woop!"
This reminds me of articles on financial media outlets market watch which seem to be written ahead of time with blanks to be filled in later with anticipated results e.g. "The price of gold plummeted in overnight markets by __ -0.03% __ (huh?)
I've been in companies that dilute. Mining start-ups tend to dilate a lot. Like 100%. This is negligable. "Dwindle"? Oh Puh-leeeez! This is so minimal it should be considered a positive.
Then the obligatory sneer at the Lincoln Park backup option, by which choice of the term "interesting" is a veiled insinuation that it must be the typical toxic finance component that infests all those tacky little OTC companies that litter the landscape like shells of rotting shrimp carcasses. He pointedly ignores that the deal has a lot of protections built in. It won't trigger the sort of unlimitted share dumping by colluding insiders and loan sharks that occurs with the sort of scam operations that the author attempts to color AVXL as with his broad brush. Scam companies that also rack up huge corporate debt.
His next logical "key take-away" then, should be the topic of debt. One might get the impression from his prose that the $60M available from Lincoln is all but spent. But, in fact, it hasn't been utilized. So where is his topic section examining the huge millions and millions of crushing debt that typically overhangs investors in small developmental bio-tech companies? He seems to have skipped it. Maybe because, guess what? Anavex has no debt. No debt. Isn't that kind of an important key point to completely leave out?
The prefabricated ignorance being propagated in this sorry excuse for an article is indeed infuriating.
re:" EXCO, at the direction of the Special Committee, has retained Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld, LLP as its legal advisor and will retain a financial advisor(s) to assist in the exploration of strategic and financial alternatives."
No relation to Forrest Gump, fortunately. :)
https://www.akingump.com/en/index.html
OK. Thanks, that was kind of what I was thinking as well.
The .50 warrants should put a floor under the sp. I would expect it to hover around there or slightly above for a while. Then up from there. Next stop, 1.00 +
Sitting tight. :)
So, they're issuing/registering 50M or so new shares to cover all the warrants which if exercised all at once would depress the share price considerably but you're saying that probably only enough will be exercised to cover minimal operating expenses of about $6M this year, which if spaced out, would have a more minimal impact on pps?
re:"maybe CEO will come threw.."
I used to think that about NPHC, another "gem" ne'er-do-well with a great story, but not much else. Everywhere you scratch the surface with a little research, another red flag pops out. There are too many similarities. Maybe a swing trade for somebody with more skill, but not for me. I may get seller's regret at some point, but, relieved to be mostly out at the moment.
GLTA
re:"...I heard office fire yesterday "
That's a new one. Maybe the shredder broke down and things got out of hand trying to use the kitchen stove instead. :)
http://www.shreddingscottsdale.com/
It's the same address...
http://bionovelus.com/contact/
Oh. Wait, here we are. Office space is a lot tinier than one might have expected. Maybe somebody mistook their business location for a wall mounted ash tray.
http://www.scottsdalemailboxes.com/the-benefits-of-mailbox-rental-at-postalmax/
Think I'll be moving on... Out with a small loss.
re: "Stuck where?"
I think most of us can think of a snappy comeback for that one that involves the absence of solar illumination in a specific location. :)
It looks like my initial assessment was considerably over-optimistic.
re: "The company's lead drug candidates comprise ANAVEX 2-73 and ANAVEX PLUS, a combination of ANAVEX 2-73 with donepezil, which is in a Phase 2a clinical trial for the treatment of Alzheimer?s and other central nervous system diseases. Its preclinical drug candidates comprise ANAVEX 3-71, which uses ligands that activate sigma-1 receptors to treat Alzheimer?s disease; ANAVEX 1-41, a sigma-1 agonist that protects nerve cells from degeneration or death; and ANAVEX 1037 for the treatment of prostate cancer. ..."
With all the focus on Alzheimer's, it's easy to overlook the other potentially valuable IP in the Anavex pipeline. One of my close colleagues was treated for prostate cancer with radiation and medication that gave him "male menopause", a lot of discomfort even after he came back, got very thin. Another co-worker got prostate removed. He survived but also not great. Mention of the other compounds in the newsoracle article with indications for improvement over prostate cancer SOC got my attention. It would be a big improvement over current SOC which centers around cell destruction with attendant collateral damage using radiation and poisons and/or organ removal.
http://www.anavex.com/pipeline/anavex-1037/
ANAVEX 1037
ANAVEX 1037 is designed for the treatment of prostate cancer. It is a low molecular weight, synthetic compound exhibiting high affinity for sigma-1 receptors at nanomolar levels and moderate affinity for sigma-2 receptors and sodium channels at micromolar levels. In advanced preclinical studies, this compound revealed antitumor potential with no toxic side effects. It has also been shown to selectively kill human cancer cells without affecting normal/healthy cells and also to significantly suppress tumor growth in immune-deficient mice models. Scientific publications describe sigma receptor ligands positively, highlighting the possibility that these ligands may stop tumor growth and induce selective cell death in various tumor cell lines. Sigma receptors are highly expressed in different tumor cell types. Binding by appropriate sigma-1 and/or sigma-2 ligands can induce selective apoptosis. In addition, through tumor cell membrane reorganization and interactions with ion channels, our drug candidates may play an important role in inhibiting the processes of metastasis (spreading of cancer cells from the original site to other parts of the body), angiogenesis (the formation of new blood vessels) and tumor cell proliferation
Nice article. I remember Fowler talking about $2.00 / gm last year, which was pretty good, lower than anybody, now he figures under $1 after they ramp up, which is awesome.
Um, I think your CAPS LOCK key might be stuck on.
There is that old Western movie cliche wherein the evil land barons try to run the little guy off. Snydley Whiplash twirls his mustache and resorts to every dirty trick in the book to get Sweet Nelle to turn over the deed to the ranch.
Everyone is free to guess. (but Based on what?)
If this were a pre-revenue mining stock, the drill results have been good based on 90 meter spacing. Now we are in a process analgeous to moving from indicated to probable to proven reserves. To delineate the ore body between those points by taking samples at closer 30 meter intervals to prove it is continuous. I've never had one get this far and fail to produce the expected results. If anything, they might hit a bonanza grade vein or two along with the good average grade. You can wait till first pour, but by then you've missed a lot of the increase in NPV along with the over-imagined risk.
Why not? The two assertions are not mutually exclusive.
re: "Believe that's the bottom"
That's how it looked to me too. Added some at $4.21 Looks like I wasn't the only one with the same idea. 75k shares traded at the eod power dump, but it didn't go down.
re: "Wonder how much of that $106m would be net?" (for co-op)
They're probably not making much profit, if any, right now but that's likely still ok. All a company really needs is cash-flow for a bank to provide financing for operations, supplies and equipment. Most companies monetize their assets and run on credit these days anyway. They probably won't be buying new tractors for a while but I imagine be able to justify buying some spray vital to their operation. Maybe that was a factor in ONOV choosing Costa Rico for initial testing / market...
re:"90% of neurological drugs fail in advanced trials. "
How about 99.99% failure rate.
When Thomas Edison was interviewed by a young reporter who boldly asked Mr. Edison if he felt like a failure and if he thought he should just give up by now. Perplexed, Edison replied, "Young man, why would I feel like a failure? And why would I ever give up? I now know definitively over 9,000 ways that an electric light bulb will not work. Success is almost in my grasp." And shortly after that, and over 10,000 attempts, Edison invented the light bulb.
re:" .06 "
If OS is 100M, that would be a MC of $6 million. Trouble is, we don't know the cost of production etc. - profit margin. We can assume a huge market demand , willing buyers, but a lot of the would-be buyers are strapped for cash right now.
Considering all the knowns vs. unknowns I guess that could be considered a fair to middling guesstimate.
A lot depends on management's ability to inspire investor confidence. Seeing the photo of the CEO out in the field with the coffee guys helped with that.
re: wonder cure"
I have a lot more DD to pursue but one big gap of info is, what is this CR-10 exactly? Who invented it? Where do they get it and how much does it cost to produce? Taking reports at face value it appears to be better than anything that is on the market now, but is it cost competitive?
The other thing is that the people who need it the most, due to crop failures, now don't hardly have any money to buy anything. Their alternative to spraying is to chop down the infected plants, but the it takes 3 years for them to grow back, making them even poorer. And without being able to afford spraying, no guarantee that they won't get infected again. A vicious circle.
Since coffee is important to those national economies, it looks like Costa Rico at least may be disposed to providing some aid. Can't tell if ONOV is making the governments in affected countries aware of cr-10. That would be the only way they could get things started imo. It's possible that once the farms recover, they would become loyal repeat customers of ONOV.
The management does seems sales and marketing heavy, but that could be a good thing if that includes outreach to regional government aid. Maybe the company could be successful enough to overcome the deficiencies in other areas that seem to be lurking, although, skepticism acknowledged, I feel like I need to do a little more research of my own as to how bad they really are.
re: "The grass is growing right now"
And watching grass grow is way better than watching paint dry. :)
https://vimeo.com/28835521
Clearly there is an unmet need. And they do seem to have overcome barrior-to-entry in this market. Big plus's there...
Although popular a few years ago and still a handy way to get listed, a lot of people look askance on the reverse merger approach. They don't have any legacy issues from the ne'er-do-well shell they took over, or horrible debt overhang, do they? Or do they? The financials are a bit "casual", and the rather large "travel and entertainmeny" expense from last year are a bit of a red flag, but, I'm leaning toward "maybe not a scam". :)
It sure is a great story. And I do like my coffee. If there's a chance here to help protect a steady supply of Folger's Gourmet Supreme, seems like a small investment here might be worth some risk...
I guess a big question is, can they execute s business plan. A nice blip from the promo, got me to notice, but what happens when it wears off. Typically, a long-tail-down, but how long and how down...
re:"...then it will likely be by or at the June 7 conference"
That's what I thought.
Court cases have a habit of dragging on interminably, but I'd almost rather see them release the good news after the crass action is dismissed, but, I suppose that they are obligated to release the data as soon as it is available.
What? Tomorrow? I thought we had another month or so. June? Maybe I was thinking of another biotech I have. Looks like I better try pancakes with maple syrup this morning. Turns out that real maple syrup is a bit pricey but it is said to be helpful. Was going to try it last week but ironically forgot to get it, the last time I was at the store. :)
re: "not to read the article
It's better for one's blood pressure if you don't. :)
re: "how do you know anything of this?"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_logarithm
http://ccnmtl.columbia.edu/projects/biology/lecture1/expogrow.html
There's a nice little graph all the way at the bottom of the second link.
I was thinking of a remark a professor made when I was studying electrical engineering in college many years (decades) ago. In this case the log function was being applied to capacitive decay but also applies to many natural processes, everything from oil well depletion to cell division and cell death in biological populations, (along with the Bell distribution curve).
Then there's the berry picking example. You go out to the patch every day. You always find berries but as each day goes by it takes longer and longer to fill your bucket.
I anticipate nay-sayers at some point are going to complain that improvement on some measures that apply numerical values are slowing down but if that's the case, it's actually normal and to be expected. imo
Simply put, in general, wouldn't you agree that the sicker you are, the longer it takes to get better. I'm thinking, the same with how long a neural cell has been sick, vomiting out amyloid plaque and eventually choking on it on top of its original malaise. Obviously, all the cells don't all fail at once. There's an onset, then a getting worse over time. There may even be some kind of prion/protein misfolding cascade going on that needs to be undone. A branching out process - run the film in reverse.
re: "You've overstated"
Perhaps a bit. If we define "cure" as taking one pill and becoming completely healthy again forever, admittedly, that is probably not achieveable. Also, nothing can bring back cells that have actually died, back to life.
Compared to our ancestors, we have a lot of "weird" stuff in our environment, water, food supply. Then, there's a possible heredity factor. Something that takes decades to induce subtle cell poisoning (e.g. nitratiion) may be near impossible to single out or it may even turn out to be something that can no longer be done without, to keep a modern population of 7 billion fed somehow. Maybe it would be better to think of 2-73 as an antidote to whatever it is that is poisoning the cells or making them susceptable.
With AD, memory loss has occured because the brain cells for memory have become sick and are no longer able to function properly. With current standard of care drugs, cells continue to sicken and die. In contrast, taking Anavex 2-73 is curing the cells of their sickness as evidenced by the restoration of lost memory. What is unprecedented is that, many of these cells had been otherwise given up for dead. Furthermore, the curative effect of 2-73 is being sustained.
Cells that are near death could be expected to take the longest to come around and I would expect a tapering off of rate of change as normalcy is approached. Most things like this, tend to follow a natural log curve. And as Stephen Hawking once said, "You can't go farther North than the North pole". It's just that the AD North pole now appears to be achievable lot farther North than anyone dared to hope, before the Anavex approach was implemented.
I guess the preferred term nowadays is "disease modification". But as the saying goes, " if it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck..."
No, unlike Donepezil, which is no cure, patients taking Anavex 2-73 are staying cured.
Making me to work here I see. :)
OK I reveiwed the articles. The assertions there may provide some comfort to those in a hopeless situation, but amount in a large measure to wishful thinking. Art is highly subjective, but look at the water color in the article. I guess they are sailboats. An average 8 year old could do as well. Now Picasso did some work that involved only a few brush strokes, and one can usually spot his creative style, but we need to draw a distinction between simple creativity and technical skill. Simple expression doesn't require remembering a lot of things. Now look at the high level of complexity in the work of the painter in our trial group. The ability to do that level of work is what was lost and regained. There is little doubt she would have still been able to make a few squiggles throughout, but there is a big difference in the scope of brain functionality required between that and the ability to articulate a detailed landscape.
re: ..."re-learn to paint or play the piano,"
This is not "re-learning" as with, "re-learning" to write or walk after a stroke or traumatic injury. Re-learning as such involves starting from scratch to try to condition different surviving neurons along different alternate pathways with physical therapy to take over for the dead ones. No, here, those same learned abilities that were there before, came back because those same neurons started working again. Clearly, this demonstrates restoration of lost memory after taking the Anavex 2-73 pill.
In my haste, spelling may actually be "nigh". Probably should have just said "near" but was striving for something that sounded a bit more dramatic. :)
re:"What do you make of the 1,558 shares purchased at 4pm each day this week, I believe? "
To answer this question requires going way beyond the mundane boundaries of mere technical analysis. The big guns. namely, Numerology.
"Number 1558 is a combination of the vibrations of number 1 and the attributes of number 5 appearing twice, amplifying its influences, and the energies of the powerful number 8. Number 1 promotes creativity and creation, pioneering, action and initiative, new beginnings and motivation, self-leadership and assertiveness, striving forward and progress. Number 1 also relates to creating our own realities with our thoughts, intentions, beliefs and actions. Number 5 resonates with personal freedom and individuality, major life changes, making important choices and decisions, promotion and advancements, adaptability and versatility, life lessons learned through experience and resourcefulness. Number 8 relates to personal power and authority, inner-wisdom, truth and integrity, dependability and self-reliance, good judgement, the concept of karma and manifesting wealth and abundance. "
ie It's a sign. A sign. HARKEN BRETHREN OUR TIME IS NIGHE
I mean, hey, what else could it be? :)
http://sacredscribesangelnumbers.blogspot.com/2014/03/angel-number-1558.html
re: "...it says 1758. Pretty odd... "
MM secret code... obviously. :)
http://www.nasdaqomx.com/digitalAssets/93/93637_q14-1758-nlx-block-trade-request-form_0702.pdf
Somebody using Toby's favorite MM EDGX apparently can't make their mind up whether thay are losing faith or not. 20k block on ask at 5.19 keeps magically re-appearing and disappearing. :)
re:"$TPIV 80 person study will be to compare TPIV200 vs Chemotherapy Drug: Cyclophosphamide "
cyclophosphamide, Cytoxan (cont.)
SIDE EFFECTS: Side effects of cyclophosphamide include:
hair loss, vomiting, diarrhea, mouth sores, weight loss, sterility, and jaundice.
Cyclophosphamide causes kidney failure, and it also may affect the heart and lungs. Cyclophosphamide suppresses production of blood cells from the bone marrow, including white blood cells (leukopenia), red blood cells (anemia) and platelets (thrombocytopenia). Leukopenia reduces the ability of the body to fight infection, thrombocytopenia impairs the ability of blood to clot, and anemia reduces the ability of blood to carry oxygen. Cyclophosphamide suppresses the immune system which may result in serious and sometimes fatal infections. Severe allergic reactions also may occur. Cyclophosphamide may cause inflammation of the urinary bladder with bleeding (hemorrhagic cystitis). This can result in lower abdominal pain from the bladder, problems urinating due to blood clots, and anemia due to loss of blood. "
http://www.medicinenet.com/cyclophosphamide/page2.htm
re: Motley Fool article
Once again they live up to their name. I notice they end with a pitch for their current "next big thing", which are invariably duds. Better hurry they've only been pushing it for months now. :)
Their target audience seems to be dumb investors. Dumb advice for dumb investors.
The author "He genuinely enjoys cutting through the industry's complexities to help everyday investors make better decisions. " See what I mean? :)
Odd that they would single out AVXL for what amounts to what would be a hit piece for them. Venom isn't really their thing but, big errors of omission in that Anavex is poised to displace Aricept which has a multi-billion dollar market in just the AZ indication and are already getting grants for other indications. Works at least as good with a proven superior safety profile. Considering the FDA approved poisons on the market that pass for "standard of care" treatments for incurable diseases, FDA approval is a foregone conclusion.
100 million authorized shares "means everything" ?! What a crock! It means nothing. Outstanding shares and market cap are actually informative. AVXL has been frugal about issuing shares. We have 36 million and about 40 million fully diluted.
Then he cites cancer bio-techs for comparison. Apples and oranges. How about an actual direct competitor? AXON has 100 million outstanding shares. In spite of the fact that it's a dead company and just hasn't realized it yet, it's about to lose it's main market, share price is on it's way down, but it's still around $15 a share. And this is the author's "worst case" of 100 million shares.
Do the math. Oh, I forgot. We're too "dumb" for that. :)
re: "...antibiotics are being taken from plants, tomatoes, etc. that need to be grown in a controlled environment."
Also a lot of work has been done using tobacco plants to mass produce vaccines and serums. A problem with flu and viral pandemics is producing enough to treat a large population quickly enough and before the virus mutates. Also the current standard means uses hamster ovaries in incubators which is subject to mammalian cell related contaminations also solved by using plants. Obviously the mmj market especially in Canada has high standards for production, plant produced therapeutics will also require a controlled virtual clean room growing environment. Check out IBIO , Caliper, and Kentucky Biotech who are pioneers in this potentially huge future market area which will need a lot of advanced growing tech of which INQD is the best.
How Long Does It Take to Grow Weed?
by Nebula Haze
http://www.growweedeasy.com/how-long-does-it-take-to-grow-weed
Too much obsessing over what is basically going to be a routine report. Those of us who have done our research already know what the results are going to be, more or less. :)
re: plaque remover eluding implant article
Somebody wasted a lot of time and money developing this gimmicky and ultimately futile approach. Barking up the wrong tree. Inferior to AVXL.
I'd venture to say we're starting to get some new investors.