Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
The Hallumn note is from 10/14 -not the 8/14 typo I posted.
Craig Hallum Note
Below is from Wednesday morning 8/14
Purchased stock more aggressively yesterday andtoday $6.70-$6.50. Selling is indefatigable for now.
Craig-Hallum Morning Call:
KRMD* – CSL Behring outlined its view for FY21. CSL’s view on the plasma collection market was somewhat mixed: disruption persists, but the market is steadily recovering week on week (although still down y/y).
For FY21, CSL expects +6-10% y/y growth, vs. Street’s 20% growth. While a diversified company, the guide must include weakness within their largest brand: immunoglobulin which includes Hizentra.
Alex Nowak notes this mixed message on Hizentra (KRMD’s underlying drug for its pump) is likely already reflected into KRMD’s stock weakness. He reminds investors that plasma can be manufactured into an IV or subQ formulation, and subQ is the growth engine and more profitable for CSL.
As a result, he questions how big of an impact this will ultimately have to KRMD and reminds investors his view that KRMD’s current estimates are too low and numerous items serve as material upside to the model: indication expansion, new Ig drugs, new non-Ig drugs and OUS expansion. Alex rates KRMD shares a Buy.
**SFE is symbol not ZSFE **
Manko - ZSFE - Safeguard Scientifics
I came across a Seeking Aloha article on SFE (Safeguard Scientifics). I caught my attention because Joe Manko had been added to their board and he has been purchasing stock in the open market.
Generally I like straightforward ideas - This is the main reason I was so comfortable, and had high conviction, in the KRMD investment that paid off very well.
This idea is not as straightforward and has execution risk. The thesis is that the sum of the parts of SFE (they are a venture co. that owns a piece of many small companies) is worth multiples of the current stock price.
I do not own any SFE stock at this time. I thought the name may be of interest to some on this board as MANKO was the driving force behind the huge gains in REPR/KRMD.
I can't figure out what the issue is here other than maybe a plasma shortage could be negative for the stock.
I noticed GRFS was trending down at same time as KRMD but has had a nice little bounce recently - I thought their decline could have been plasma shortage related.
KRMD stock had a meteoric rise and was probably due for a breather. A 50% or so drop from the highs can be hard to take but the stock ran from < 1.50.
I see the market cap is about 6x their estimated 2022 revenues. Maybe the market perceives this as appropriate at this time.
One of the reasons I owned this was I thought their path to the 50 million in revs was more or less easily achievable. I also thought that they had, and do have, many hands in the fire with large pharma trials and the market was not pricing any of that in. I do think it only a matter of time before they have a positive "surprise" in that a new drug approval, or expanded indication for an existing drug will benefit them greatly.
No position at this time. I think the stock should have significant support in this $6-$7 range. All cash tied up (ATGN, VNTR, IPATF, CLPT). Still watching.
Manko purchased another 25,000 shares at 7.25. 9/4
Purchased some stock yesterday - very small position.
Manko buying some some stock caught my eye.
REPR/KRMD was a huge winner for me last year. Hoping to see a flush out to the mid/low $6's to build a more meaningful position. Need to free up some cash first.
Hi All, still no position. Congrats to longs on new highs. Here is a note from Craig-Hallum from 2/12 so a little old but puts target on revenues for soon to be released quarter.
KRMD* – CSL Behring reported Hizentra sales up 37% y/y. Alex Nowak reminds investors that Hizentra patients make up a large majority of KRMD's pump sales today, giving Alex confidence of upside into Q4 (2/25). CSL also announced it has enrolled a phase 3 trial for Hizentra in dermatomyositis; Alex notes the trial represents an indication expansion for Hizentra (today only approved for PIDD & CIDP) and KRMD is likely the delivery device for the trial. His prior work with script data suggests Q4 sales of $6.0-6.3M (Street: $5.6M); Hizentra +37% y/y gives him confidence in those numbers. Alex rates KRMD shares a Buy.
1
I do not think the story is getting old. I think with the share appreciation it is perfectly normal for the stock to consolidate.
The company has been steadfast that they are aiming for $50 million in 2022 revs. I believe that the Street is shifting to a "show me" mode. Will need to see some revenue and profit acceleration.
I also believe that within the next 12-18 months KRMD can have a new source of revenues that is not factored into the stock. Maybe a new partnership or an expanded label use for a sub-q drug.
I have not bought any stock back yet. Stock continues to hold but meander around the 10 week moving average - $5.56 right now.
Missed my chance to get back in at $5.50. :(
Looking good!
DYAI. was also written up on micro cap club just before it broke above $2 early last year. I made a nice profit in it - even though I sold too soon around $4
I found out about PEYE, ATGN and FSI at microcapclub.com. I pay a yearly subscription which is about $525 or so. Best money I ever spent as that's where I found out about REPR/KRMD. Stock was $1.40 - $1.50 at that time
Believe it or not REPR was highlighted on the website the summer of 2014 at .29 cents a share.
I read an article on Seeking Alpha about TAYD quite some time ago. Bought around $13 and broke even. Had my eye on it ever since. New management and I think they will focus more on their aerospace/defense are than they have in the past. the new CEO comes from a small defense company.
Big insider buy here the last week or two from a long time holder. I am looking for 50% return next 12-18 months.
I prefer weekly charts. You could make a case the daily chart has some H & S characteristics. but I don't think so.
as you know I've monitored the weekly moving average as a buy/add point. The weekly moving avg. is $5.46 right now.
I have some cash and am looking to get back in. Debating buying at $5.50 but would prefer to get in at $5 - $4.75 area. We may never see that though.
I'd be very comfortable buying this business at a $200 million market cap (about $5 a share) or lower.
No position trying to be patient.
Sold VNTR at loss and QUAD at profit. My tax loss plays. Not much action this year.
Long TAYD, PEYE and ATGN. Monitoring FSI
I prefer weekly charts. You could make a case the
I prefer weekly charts. You could make a case the
Technically Speaking
If the stock breaks $5.70 on downside I can see some selling come in. 10 week moving avg. is at $5.47 this week. Selling momentum could cause the stock to break the 10 week.
I am bidding from $5 down to $4.50 to get back in.
May never get there. Will continue to monitor. Nothing has changed to the fundamental story.
Bidding between $5.25 and $5.05 for a starter position.
This would pull the stock back to the 10 week moving average.
Thank you. Continued good luck to you as well.
Sold balance today.
Will keep an eye on this one if it nears 10 week moving average.
Wa a phenomenal trade for me. Best of my career.
Holy Smokes
567,000 shares changed hands last two minutes.
A little worried about that action.
Amazing how it just holds its ground. Small pullback and seemingly the buyer just there taking in stock as it waits to move higher.
If we trade through $6.70 today I can see a run to test $7. I do not expect this until after Christmas, however KRMD continues to surprise me to the upside.
I think there is institutional buying all day culminating in every share they can get at the close.
Always need an exit strategy. Not sure where it should be with this one. I sell small lots throughout the day but still have plenty of stock.
No telling how much for there this can go. I expect another gap up soon.
Gaps beget gaps.
With the daily chart having a big gap on massive volume it would not surprise me to see another upside gap soon. Especially the way the stock is “acting”.
Tax Loss Selling - January Effect
Thus is a strategy that has worked overteh years for me.
Several that I am watching:
RAIL - already missed - was bidding in the $1.80's yesterday
TUP - hoping for pullback from today's move
VNTR - was good to me last January (own small) bidding for more - 1 week moving avg. at $3.45 - want to buy as close to this as possible
QUAD - long a little higher $4.45 buying more
AFI - monitoring no position
wondering if some funds want to scream KRMD even higher into end of year.
Thanks for the link. I hope we are working with Roche.
It’s just a matter of time until KRMD hits on something outside of PIDD/CIPD.
Hopefully i have the patience to keep a large position.
HALO
Anyone know if KRMD is working with these guys? They had some sub-q news today on a drug.
Technically Speaking
If we close at or near the highs we may see another gap up tomorrow. I have sold 1/3 of my position. My average was below $2 and I took a huge risk with this company and it has paid off more than handsomely.
I still have plenty of stock.
Craig Hallum note this morning. I am speculating here - Grifols announced some info on an Alzheimer's drug they are working on - Friday. Perhaps they mentioned the Xemblify launch (mentioned by CH below) during some type of call with analysts.
The below was posted on my micro cap club website a few hours ago.
Craig-Hallum Morning Call:
KRMD* – Management confirmed that Grifols has officially launched Xembify and began first patient dosing last week. Alex Nowak reminds investors that Xembify is the second drug approved that partnered using Koru's pump during clinical trials and Koru is now the premiere pump partner after approval (CSL Behring's Hizentra was the first). Alex states that Hizentra alone does ~$25M/year growing 20%+ and states Xembify + Hizentra could represent $50M in recurring annual revenue in 3 years. However, this does not include other new drug approvals, clinical trials or OUS sales (all of which started to benefit the model in 3Q19). Further, Alex only models Hizentra sales, meaning Xembify + others are all upside. Alex rates KRMD shares a Buy.
Assuming we hold the $5.32 low today the daily chart will have a breakaway gap on large volume. Likewise for the weekly chart if the weekly low is say $5.15 or higher.
I have had a huge position in KRMD and have been selling some (between $4.50 - $4.90) and now today $5.50-$5.65. Will have lightened my position by 20-30% here. They can have some more at $5.75.
I will still have a very large position and this chart pattern can be indicative of even more gains.
I emailed the contact on the investor web page to see if they could point me to some public disclosure that has impacted the stock here, or if they will be issuing a press release. Not expecting much but we'll see.
I’m really at a loss. Hopefully we will see something prior to opening.
Still haven’t been able to find any news that caused uptick after hours.
Grifols has some positive data on an Alzheimer’s drug but that was out well before market close and I believe it’s administered intravenously.
Hope the reason for the move are revealed before Monday open.
I have to see what the news is. If it were some corporate news that would impact revenues and earnings that would give us the most bang for our bucks. I think this unlikely as that news would have been widely distributed on the wires and likely a press release from the company.
My guess is a fund manger or the like had to disclose a sizable holding. Depending on who that is and their intentions will dictate what type of move. Definitely had good interest after hours. It was not a stray market order.
Exciting times for sure.
Just a guess here -
perhaps an ownership filing was disclosed?
After Hours Action
Not sure why this had a $5.55 bid after hours. Very low volume and I do not see any news item yet.
No thoughts on Res-Q other than can we sell it for anything?
40 plus thousand shares traded yesterday at market close. Hoping this cleans up the selling for the time being. Stock trying to hold 10 week moving average.
Would like to see volume pick up (tough task this trading week) and close above $4.30. Will have to take this weeks’ action with grain of salt.
10 week moving average is $3.96. The 10 week moving average has been a good place to buy the stock. This will be the third test of the 10 week since the stock started to accelerate. Each time the stock had accelerated on relatively high volume and pulled back on lower volume.
Each time the avg held and higher prices followed. Hopefully that’s the case again although the selling has been persistent.
Agree with your assessment that there is no new news to draw more buying.
I think the Canadian government helped create their own issue. many of the posters from that micro cap club are Canada-centric. Not sure how much product Koru sells in Canada.
I also saw someone bring up a "rapid push" method of administering Hizentra. This was for a pediatric patient and a health care professional had to administer the dose. The HCP mentions it takes 24 hours or so for the full dose so that sounds like it's not delivering the drug optimally.
Just something to think about. Still own 100% of shares
Interesting article. Not sure what to think about an IG shortage in relation to our investment. The good news is the demand for the sub-q solution is likely growing faster than most think.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-canadian-blood-services-warns-of-imminent-shortage-of-take-home-immune/
This is a good first step in recouping costs though and continues the string of legal wins vs. EMED. Hopefully they throw in the towel.