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Nice day...I'd say it's a beautiful day after waiting for almost two months for this gem to shine. I think it's going to be a 3 bagger at least in 2007. Last January's assessment is finally going to pay off.
PS> Mongrel, nice avatar (? if that's what it's called) on your post. First visual for me within a stock posting.
I too decided, in my attempt to make a comeback with OMNI, to purchase 300 shares at 7.96. These damn swings of 40-50% are not pleasant but with the strong prognosis of growth I don't see a bad 2007.
Just revisiting to pour salt in my own wound. Sold at the low several weeks ago and as predicted it's heading to the mid-teens. Just happening a lot quicker than I expected and unfortunately for me I am stuck in my alternate choices that are doing nothing or in the red. Even my favorite for 2007, GIGM, is just sitting there.
Should tape the caveat to my monitor....PATIENCE GRASSHOPPER!
Just shoot me in the wallet right now. One biz day after selling a PR is done about the positive earnings that puts it on track for the $16-$17 stock price without a doubt. Within two hours of the opening it's up over 15%.
Just in the wrong place at the wrong time...again.
I probably sold at the bottom of this slump but with the anything closely related to the energy sector getting trashed I believe it best to take my 30% loss and put the sale proceeds in GIGM. It'll take a couple of points to offset the OMNI loss but I can't wait for OMNI to make its comeback. It always works that way... watch the market's overall trend, find the sector and then find the stock.
I don't see how OMNI's earnings are going to be effected and it will make $16+ by next summer but GIGM is a much hotter play right now.
I cannot believe this price drop just because of the drop in crude. Seems to be an over reaction but still means that it may take a bit longer to convince the market.
It busted last week's support of 8.55 with no problem so now it's a waiting game to see where it levels off. 'm not thinking of selling but being down 20%+ is a pain in the butt.
OMNI remains anemic in that broad trading range but the sore is being treated with my GIGM's big move ($1.47 for 15%) today.
Don't know exactly why GIGM jumped. It's either just some institutional buying or they're buying because of some imminent big news.
Days like this that make you wish you had your OMNI money in the other "sure bet" along with what you had already...but the mantra is always to remain diversified.
Part of Cramer commentary (Sept 5, 2006)
Oil-Service Stocks Have Deep Potential
By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
9/5/2006 1:36 PM EDT
Tech and oil service. Those are the ones flying today...I continue to like this group and continue to believe that as it languishes you will get more deals....
I know that this group is dreadfully out of favor and trades with every tick down in oil and nat gas.
But that's not right from rig rates. And it certainly isn't right from the point of view of acquisitions.
----------------
The big oil find in Gulf of Mexico may not have an immediate effect on OMNI's price but definitely in long run it will as more demand for its services arise. More exploration, finds and oil rig development to come and OMNI's peripheral services will benefit from demand.
Looks OMNI is going to be in its trading range for awhile. Right now we have a another market surge but the Sept/Oct historical fears may take it back a little, although I still see a strong year ending.
I still have the stocks you mentioned on my watch list but decided to concentrate on getting more GIGM that I started about two months ago. Began at 8.09 and then 9.01. Right now it's basing but looks like it's readying for another leg up IF (or WHEN) it can get past $10.
If I make some bucks there then I can consider adding another stock to the portfolio. Also, a real estate deal is 90% there and if it closes I will have some bucks to invest...other real estate? more OMNI? another stock? more GIGM? Decisions, decisions, decisions!
Maybe I should just learn to play poker better.
We're in a wide trading range now with support at 8.35 and resistance at 9.85. So, we can expect some serious volatility.
The macro view is that the market will have a decent run up with another pullback (I'm guessing late Sept followed by the Oct fear) and then a strong 2006 ending.
I haven't decided if I will try to trade it. Attempted it twice and took small losses when I had to buy back a bit higher. Still expecting it to do quite well in 2007 regardless of what occurs in next four months.
Thanks. I'll spend the weekend looking at a few possibilities to put cash back to work.
I have a little cash after selling SOLM at 3.48PM, that I mentioned this morning, for an 86% gain in 17 days. Would like to do that routinely. Don't know if it has anything left but it was bouncing around so much I couldn't tell where it was going; plus the news release came out today that I think spurred the recent rise. Buy on the rumor...sell on the news.
I'll have to decide whether it's going to be a few hundred shares of something over $10 or four figures worth of something under $5. I have a bit of the gambler in me when I look at those <$5 ones that I have to learn to control. BTW, my favorite one under $5 is PDGE which I expect to have a big move in 2007.
Well, perhaps we'll start to see the turnaround now but will have to wait a day or two to get confirmation. We had an early low of 8.10 today and just as it was about to touch the support level it started to rise. This is how I got caught at 10.32 though (bouncing off of the 10.22 level) so if we can get to 8.90 again then we may be out of the woods and have a new support level to create worry.
Thanks for the thought about the watch list but I will just take a look at the ones you mentioned. I have more sub-$5 holdings and on watch now than a reasonable conservative investor like myself should be considering.
I agree with you about the probable reason for selling, since there are no evident fundamental reasons, but in these cascading events it's difficult to say where it will steady again.
My current batch is at 10.32 avg. I had to be away for a few days and left a bid at that price based on the support level at that time. Bid was taken and once it broke 10.22 then it just seemed to freefall.
The new support level is about 8.05. If it closes below that at some future date then the next support is going to be in the mid-7's. I don't see it going lower and, if the timing is right with my other holdings, I may add more.
Part of the problem I believe is the debate over the cost of oil rigs. One side is saying that based on the daily rentals the demand is still there while the opposing view is that more rigs are being refurbished and put into production. So the increase of supply of platforms will cause the revs that they produce to decline. Seems we still have at least one maybe two qtrs before that has an effect on OMNI, IF it is accurate that the rental costs will decline.
If it is true about the increasing supply then we may have a tough time getting back to 10. If inaccurate then we should have new highs within 2 qtrs and hit the expected $17 price in 2007. Right now this is the only reason I may be hesitant to add more in the mid-7's because I will be down about 30% by then...not something I like to think about.
The techies have it as a sell in the short term so we might even see it drop below 8. I will hold despite the "pain" that has to be seen in the price as it consolidates.
Maybe it's the hurricane season upcoming, or the predictions of a price drop in oil, or just a consolidation as OMNI prepares for the next advance. Could just be the August doldrums too. A couple of good TAs have predicted an advance in the market in September followed by a pullback in late Sept/early August and then a strong 2006 finish. I can wait it out.
I still have no reason to doubt OMNI in the long term (6-9 months).
[Currently I am experiencing the same thing in GIGM but not as severe as it bases for the next rise. The frustration is offset by SOLM that I bought at 1.26 about three weeks ago after fiddling around when it was at .52]
Nipsy, about that HMSC: I don't know how you would make money on a stock that has 4B shares out and revs in the seven digits. You'll have to enlighten me about how that works.
Everyone has a lottery ticket penny stock. Mine is FLIP that, if it progresses within the next 3 years as it has done for the last year, should payoff 20 times plus at least by the end of that time period. Otherwise the nickel spent is one that I won't cry over too much.
The stock continues a gradual decline on no news since the ER. Nobody seems to have a viable theory on the msg boards except for the usual tripe that it's the MMs or there has been a leak of bad news from the company that will be known to the masses soon.
My idea is that the market believes that the hurricane season will have an effect on biz in the short term. Also, there has been a drop in the $ per barrel of oil and those drops have effected OMNI price in the past.
So, if it spikes up to 11+ then I will probably trade it but I want to track it for the long term...or hold it as the case may be. This is frustrating because it was a good earnings, although I have to wonder about mgmt not wanting to announce the ER release date/time earlier (with more notice) or have a CC to give some guidance and insight from questioning and statements.
Several stock I follow have had exc ER out this week and yet the price is mediocre to bad. Seems like it's a poker table breed of stock buyers nowadays.
Either keep it for the long term or try to catch the highs and lows as the "investors" come and go.
[Aside from OMNI, the pattern can be seen in GIGM and NTO.]
The sell on the news pattern was in play today but the ER shows that it is still a very good mid to long term equity.
Look at the headline and go to the EPS within the PR and really nothing more needs to be added.
-------------------
OMNI Reports Solid Second Quarter Results
Tuesday August 8, 9:24 am ET
Strong Increases Reported in Revenues, EBITDA and Net Income; Better Than Expected Results From Recent Acquisition Bolster Company's Results
THE GURU'S CORNER Column (8/1/06)
by Harry Boxer, The Technical Trader
OMNI Energy Services
OMNI has been in a strong uptrend since its January 2005 lows just over 1, having reached recently as high as 12.5. Backing off in a bullish flag, the stock recently surged back up and moved out.
It appears the current strong intermediate uptrend remains intact, and if the stock can make further progress, trading targets once 12.60 is taken out would be in the 15 area, followed by 18.5 and then 25 short-, intermediate and long-term. Chart support remains at the recent pullback lows around 9.40, with the 40-day moving average around the 9.90 area.
It was a beautiful day in the OMNI neighborhood today (although brutally hot temps). The ER date announcement must be close.
Return to sanity on the PPS as the market anticipates the excellent earnings report forthcoming in August. (I haven't seen a release date yet.)
Under 9.50 at midday. I'm seriously thinking of overweighting the portfolio with OMNI at this price.
Apparently, as it is the only reason I can conjecture, the abundant supply of oil in the world is causing investors to believe that there will be a lesser need for oil services. My bet would be that domestic sources will still be sought and OMNI services will still be in demand as long as oil stays above $60. (Plus, there are other OMNI services that generate some rev.)
Got back from a short pleasure trip and was away from the computer ticker for two days...AND GLAD I WAS. The continuation of the decline looks like a stampede as anyone who had any type of profit is showing extreme fear.
I might be back to my entry point soon but will await the ER that I believe will bring OMNI back to life. Perhaps those running in the opposite direction will see that that even though the mideast conflict has a long run ahead we are not getting into WW III...and (cynically) if we were, wouldn't OMNI be in the right spot.
As a bad week for the market ends and the mideast does not seem to be cooling, the buyers are staying in cash until this sorts itself out. Soon there will be those willing to take advantage of the fear and start looking for the good ones that will be acting upward on the war premium.
Reminds me of past problems in U.S. Immediately after 9/11 and start of the Iraq fiasco nobody wanted to buy. They wanted to stay in cash and a few commodities like the precious metals.
At least it is looking very doubtful as of today that the Fed will raise again. (Can't figure out why Japan decided to do so now after years of free money.)
Today's decline made no sense to me as the mideastern conflict escalated. If anything, there's going to be many more holes dug in the US along with other oil services increasing in demand.
I am in total agreement with the poster on Yahoo! who states what I have been saying too among different Hub posts:
<<Msg: 50579 of 50581
Dont mean to be a ballbuster but Omni does not drill for Oil or Gas as such. They drill for seismology companies who drill for OIl companies or speculators. That may initially sound like a downer, but it isnt. They get paid whether anything is found or not. And looking will not stop. For one even a dry hole costs the large oil companies almost nothing as it is a tax deduction against profits. It just gets better and better as you can imagine who and what kind of companies they are looking to purchase. I yield lots of credit to those doing careful graphical analysis of the prices but sorry to say you are really wasting your time. Whether it goes back to fill a gap or not may be helpful to your entry point but this is a long range buy and hold if you really want to make money. >>
Sour market today and the usual summer doldrums plus early disappointing earnings for a few this week seem to be leading the market to believe that there's a slowdown coming. Technically, it also is having trouble getting back over 12 in the short term.
Still relying on the next ER for the big booster shot.
Congrats.
Looks like your order executed this morning even though oil jumped back near its prior intraday high. I still can't find much reason for the price drop and don't put much weight on a one director's actions.
Might be nervousness that occurs before an ER report even though the guidance was quite strong, although I might have to do more reading to determine if some tax situation or debt is going to kick in that I didn't see previously.
Start of new week with the pullback of oil to $73 and change which is the only reason I could find for the drop of OMNI to the intraday low of 11.21 (as of mid-afternoon). This is despite the fact that the demand for oil does not show signs of abating, refinery capacity is low, and the economy remains quite strong.
We are about to start the earnings season. High guidance has been given but if OMNI happens to exceed it then $15 in next quarter will not be a question.
Oil is up over $75 barrel and the demand for OMNI services is ever increasing. Just doesn't seem wise to me that anyone would ignore the inevitable.
As I post, the market is down over 85 points and OMNI is up over 50c. I think you're missing the accretive earnings acquisition, the guidance for increasing earnings, and the high multiple that the market is giving it.
Just because a stock has a 100% gain does not mean that it will not go higher. If you look at the full year's run past, many people using that reasoning got out at 4, 5, and $6.
I'm not pumping or trying to hype, I think it's a solid play for 2006 and 2007. You could luck out and catch a +/-$1 drop but then again you might miss 2 or 3 upward.
Good luck with that. I tried it once, as you can read from prior posts, and found that it turns rapidly and makes volatile jumps.
Unless you can read the tea leaves with high skill and catch the turn at the right time, you could find yourself buying higher than when the pullback started.
Do you have any thoughts-prognostications-forecasts on where it might come down to prior to taking another booster shot?
I assume you meant over bought.
If you're a short time day or week trader then you want to watch those computer TA programs. Otherwise, think out where the earnings will be in 6, 9, and 12 months based on the research, PRs, and 10 Q's.
The market rallies on a "holiday Monday" and OMNI breaks 12. Up almost 50% in less than two weeks. SWWWEEEEETTTT!
The word is getting around, more accumulation by present holders, and nothing in the wind that can be construed as a negative. Again, unless the oil market collapsed, which seems impossible considering China's insatiable needs, this seems too good to be true...knock on wood.
Thanks.
Hope you're getting a piece of it too because with the new figures and a P/E anywhere from 20 to 50 it would have a price in the $20 to $40 range by the end of the fourth quarter. I don't even think a drop in oil would effect it except within the very short term.
And darn glad that I did come back and resolve to stick with it.
OMNI to Acquire Rig Tools, Inc.
Tuesday June 27, 9:00 am ET
Acquisition Will Significantly Expand Rental Equipment Fleet and Broaden Customer Base
[and the key words]
"Acquisition to be Immediately Accretive to Earnings"
Great to see a company increase business and profits and then make an excellent acquisition.
Resolved last week that I would stick with it for 2006 but volatile days like today, Monday the 26th, when it pulled back to 9.11 do not make it easy. Appears that the traders are going to churn it for awhile but it will easily break 10 soon and go beyond that with the next ER.
A tactical error was made when I sold at 7.96 in the hopes of picking it up again below 7.30. Instead it reversed almost immediately after the sell signal. Waited two days but realized that I should not be trying to kill the golden goose and went back in at 9.35. Left 1.39 on the table unfortunately, but this time the original plan to hold throughout 2006 is in concrete.