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Investor Village site still down it seems. Has anyone heard anything re. a fix?
Very High Daily Short Interest of late -
According to below site, up to 78% recently (can't vouch for accuracy of figures of course).
*Disregard name...nothing to do with naked shorts.
https://www.nakedshortreport.com/company/AVXL
On Briefing at 10:53 - AUPH Spiking on BuyOut Rumor
"Aurinia Pharma shares spiking in recent trade; Hearing M&A speculation making the rounds."
Understandably, such rumors don't carry the weight they once did...but one never knows for sure.
Got a little bump up anyway, beats going down.
look at GDRX, they beat yesterday but guided down a bit...took like a 45% haircut; luckily (I think) I grabbed a few hundred at ~ $6.85
So Far - Volume Relatively Light
Thinking today should provide an excellent entry point.
No worries, Europe has been the future for quite awhile.
Heavy March $12 Call Activity
1781 contracts
Hopefully something is up.
Nice Volume on the March $11s, $12s and $13s
A bit over 1500 contracts on the $12s
Gotta Love A.Feuerstein...
Bought shares and sold $10 puts
Hope others capitalized on that raid or at least weren't shaken out.
Now...fire CEO and accept the buyout offer.
Patience pays off once again...
Small acquisition pre-market at $13.04
Hopefully s/p drops to $12ish.
Indeed...seems to argue against an imminent buyout
OTOH a board member may not be provably privy to negotiations; obviously a CEO open market unplanned share acquisition would be a sure sign of no imminent buyout.
No worries, actually been wondering if that January MaxPain $15 figure is indicatative or just weird odd spurious info; would actually love a drop to the $15ish area for a load the boat opportunity. But then I am not holding January options either.
Failed to participate in yesterday's rally -
Resting on 1-year support.
Wouldn't mind at all acquiring shares at around $15
This is true...
No worries as my response wasn't critical just an observation.
You didn't hear 'anything praising management'
simply because management had nothing to do with the Bloomberg rumor story.
My use of the word 'suspecting' is key in my post...
A little work on reading comprehension may be in order mate...lol
Here, I will help you.
have an idea or impression of the existence, presence, or truth of (something) without certain proof.
Interesting...MaxPain for Dec. is currently $25ish but $15 for Jan.
*At least according to this site:
http://www.maximum-pain.com/options/auph
Regardless MaxPain figures (MaxPain often seems not all that accurate), the entities shorting are in control and appear able to take it where they want for now; hopefully the plan is not below $15
I have been selling $16 puts today and will cover those and switch to $15s if the shorts continue this beat down.
I am suspecting that TPTB knew of the Bloomberg story and thus the buyout premium actually began around $15.
AUPH management got greedy, or just high balled any potential acquirers because they had no intention of giving up their cushy pay and freebie options from the get go.
Oh well...sold half at $29ish, but not the balance until $22ish - my bad.
And Max Pain is $24...how coincidental
Oh well...
Check the Volume on the June $4 Calls
Hmmm...
Interesting & Strong Close...
Today was the perfect opportunity for shorts to hammer the s/p down towards Max Pain...guessing they tried but couldn't; more convinced a deal is on deck - or we are just in an annoying trading range between ~$27 and $30
Risk/Reward seems Incredibly Favorable
The downside is what? Maybe $0.60? Upside is at least 100% if not 300% (I know some here won't be happy with less than $20, but I am trying to be realistic/conservative).
Just seems a no-brainer to accumulate shares or buy calls.
Will be even happier if the s/p drops further as it just makes the risk/reward that much better.
*Bought shares and options today.
Hope You are Right with Revision of buy out...
WS seems to be guessing otherwise though. I was hoping for short drop to near that Max Pain figure of $24 for an opportunity to load up more shares - not looking likely at this point anyway.
Great Find...
Benzinga - Deal Reporter saying 'activist investor'
Activist Investor may be pushing for a sale of company...no details.
They better get it done soon, Peter..
That KZR is a rocket ship AHs. The results are 'just' P2 interim though, so still a ways out before approval and actually becoming competition.
Well Max Pain is ~ $24
Not surprised, all of a sudden, that recent solid $30ish has failed. Of course it is possible that any interested parties have refused to meet AUPH's minimum asking price. Just hope if that is the case they don't raise money in prep for a GIA path.
http://www.maximum-pain.com/options/auph
Updated Interim Analysis...
Longest available outcomes data with LUPKYNIS will be presented virtually during American College of Rheumatology (ACR) Convergence 2021; final results expected by the end of 2021 –
- Updated interim analysis shows sustained safety and tolerability of LUPKYNIS compared with placebo -
- Individuals treated with LUPKYNIS sustained meaningful reductions in proteinuria with stable eGFR at 30 months -
VICTORIA, British Columbia--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ:AUPH) (Aurinia or the Company), a biopharma company committed to delivering therapeutics that change the course of autoimmune disease, today announced updated interim results from the AURORA 2 continuation study evaluating the long-term safety and tolerability of LUPKYNIS™ (voclosporin) for the treatment of lupus nephritis (LN) in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), a chronic and complex autoimmune disease. The updated results will be presented virtually on Nov. 8 during Plenary Session III at 10:45 a.m. EST during The American College of Rheumatology (ACR) Convergence 2021.
In the interim analysis, patients in the voclosporin group maintained meaningful reductions in proteinuria. From pre-treatment baseline in AURORA 1 to month 30 in AURORA 2, mean urine protein/creatinine ratio (UPCR) was -3.32 mg/mg for the voclosporin group (n=90) and -2.55 mg/mg for the control group (n=78). In the voclosporin group, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), an important measurement of kidney function, remained stable through month 30. There were no unexpected new adverse events reported in the voclosporin group compared to the control group.
“In this updated interim analysis, reductions in proteinuria were sustained with no impact on renal function at a total of 30 months of treatment with voclosporin,” said Amit Saxena, M.D., assistant professor, department of medicine at NYU Langone Medical Center and presenting author of the AURORA 2 study. “The consistent outcomes over time reinforce confidence in LUPKYNIS as an important treatment choice for people experiencing the dangerous manifestation of lupus nephritis.”
AURORA 2 (NCT03597464) is a Phase 3 randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial to assess the long-term safety and tolerability of voclosporin, in addition to the standard of care, for the treatment of LN in patients with SLE. Patients who completed 12 months of treatment in the Phase 3 AURORA 1 study were eligible to enroll in the AURORA 2 continuation study with the same randomized treatment of voclosporin at 23.7 mg twice daily or placebo, in combination with mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) at 1 g twice daily with either no or low-dose oral steroids, for an additional 24 months. A total of 216 LN patients continued into AURORA 2, with 116 patients in the voclosporin group and 100 patients in the control group. 90 and 78 patients, respectively, received 30 months of total treatment as of this interim analysis. Final results from the AURORA 2 study are expected by the end of 2021. Results from the completed Phase 3 randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, multicenter AURORA 1 study (NCT03021499) were recently published in The Lancet.
“We are encouraged to see the continued positive outcomes with LUPKYNIS and look forward to seeing and presenting the complete results from AURORA 2 in the coming months,” said Neil Solomons, M.D., Chief Medical Officer at Aurinia.
CF Analyst Chimes in...
10/29
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:AUPH) may be worth $45-$53/share in a possible sale and may see interest from other pharma cos. besides Bristol Myers, according to Cantor Fitgzerald. Aurinia rose 1.5%.
Other companies that could be interested include Amgen (NASDAQ:AMGN), AbbVie (NYSE:ABBV), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) and Otsuka (OTCPK:OTSKF), according to Cantor analyst Alethia Young. A potential deal with Bristol Myers, as reported by Bloomberg last week, would make sense given AUPH's clinicals and development profile.
"We believe that all of these companies have commercial franchises that could easily tuck LUPKYNIS into their marketed portfolios," Young, who has an overweight rating on AUPH and and a $34 price target, wrote in a note.
The Cantor note follows speculation from Betaville yesterday that GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE:GSK), Roche (OTCQX:RHHBY) and Otsuka (OTCPK:OTSKF) may be reviewing a potential bid for Aurinia with bids ranging from $42 to $44.50.
A key question for a potential AUPH acquisition is how the acquirer looks at intellectual property, according to Young.
"Intellectual property is a potential "X factor" in this deal and would determine ultimately what an acquirer might pay," Young wrong.
Young cautioned that she she also sees scenario where AUPH's M&A valuation is in the range of $30-$40/share. The $45-$53 takeout valued is based on M&A DCF "sensitivity analysis."
Options Alert...
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Option Alert: Jan 21 $40 Calls at the Ask: 120 @ $2.6 vs 7904 OI; Earnings 11/3 Before Open Ref=$31.53
Agreed...big mistake -
I can only hope management would not turn down a $44 offer
Multiple Bidders Speculation//Options Call Volume
Aurinia Pharma Shares Spike To Session High, Up 7%, As Traders Circulate Speculation From Betaville Suggesting GlaxoSmithKline, Roche, Otsuka Pharma Are Involved In Review Process Being Carried Out By Co.
Bullish option flow detected in Aurinia Pharmaceuticals with 3,906 calls trading, 1.4x expected, and implied vol increasing almost 5 points to 128.15%. Nov-21 35 calls and Nov-21 30 calls are the most active options, with total volume in those strikes near 3,300 contracts. The Put/Call Ratio is 0.13. Earnings are expected on November 3rd.
Read more at:
https://thefly.com/n.php?id=3396403
Look at the Date on that...
May turn out to be correct but that document doesn't appear to be current.
RBC Increases Price Target to $34
RBC Capital analyst Douglas Miehm maintains Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:AUPH) with a Outperform and raises the price target from $23 to $34
Volume Unexpectedly Light...
Expected a good deal more pre-market activity.
Hoping for $35
Congratulations All!
Minerva Neurosciences announced results from a bioequivalence study comparing the roluperidone formulations used in its late-stage Phase 2b and Phase 3 trials, and the planned commercial formulation. The study met all key pharmacokineticm, or PK, objectives and the data demonstrate bioequivalence across the various formulations. "The results demonstrate bioequivalence in terms of exposure between the formulations used in our two late-stage Phase 2b and Phase 3 efficacy and safety trials with roluperidone..," said Dr. Remy Luthringer, Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Minerva. "These results represent important progress along Minerva's critical path toward submission of an NDA for roluperidone for the treatment of negative symptoms of schizophrenia, for which there are currently no approved treatment options in the United States." For roluperidone, efficacy is mostly driven by plasma exposure of the drug whereas safety margins improve by reducing Cmax of the drug. Furthermore, as roluperidone is intended for chronic use and the assessed formulations are controlled release, AUCinf is the most relevant of the AUCs when single dose data are collected and used for determining bioequivalence. In this study, the two most important objectives were to establish: The comparability under fasted condition of the 64 milligram tablet of the Phase 3 formulation of roluperidone compared to the 64 mg dose based on the administration of two 32 mg tablets of roluperidone used in the Phase 2b study, and yhe comparability under fasted condition of a 64 mg tablet of the planned commercial formulation of roluperidone compared to the 64 mg dose based on the administration of two 32 mg tablets of roluperidone used in the Phase 2b study. The additional two objectives of the study were to establish: the comparability under fasted condition of the 64 mg formulation of the planned commercial tablets compared to that used in the Phase 3 for which the results show bioequivalence between the formulations in terms of AUCs and Cmax; and the comparability of the 64 mg dose of the commercial formulation under fed condition compared to fasted condition for which the results show bioequivalence of both AUCinf and Cmax between the fed and fasted conditions.
Read more at:
https://thefly.com/n.php?id=3379828
No Worries - Europe/China on Deck...
We know Europe & China are worth at least $8...many feel the figure is much much higher - but speaking minimums.
This is OPPORTUNITY!
*Sorry for those with close in options...that makes it rough.
Seize this short-term opportunity and utilize the manipulation to your long-term benefit.
Absolutely...care givers are always/immediate family are always the first to know.
Hopefully now the Whole GIA Plan for EU will be Revised
I will be happy more than happy with $12
Know the Potential of what You Own
My understanding is the P2 interim results already are superior to approved Aricept at 6 months, not to mention the incredibly positive results achieved in 11 bio-markers. So since Aricept appears to slow cognitive decline for only 6 months on average and Simufilam already surpasses efficacy of Aricept at 6 months, then it is almost a given for BTD at some point (possibly within weeks) and becoming a new Standard of Care (SOC) for Alzheimer's. Can TPTB continue to pressure the s/p? Of course. Can they drop the s/p back to say $25ish?...possibly. Will Simufilam be approved and supplant Aricept? Sans some left field safety issue surfacing (which there have been absolutely no indications of what-so-ever), the answer is an obvious yes. Is it likely that SAVA has been approached by multiple BP entities interested in a partnership or outright acquisition? Absolutely. Is it likely SAVA management is even involved is such discussions currently? Yes.
Know the potential of what you own (assuming most reading this are current owners). Very likely, when positive news is announced, the share price will open at a huge premium from the previous day's closing price (depending on the news of course)...so don't be 'penny wise but pound foolish', as the saying goes. Simufilam, at this point, has the potential to eventually be worth somewhere around $40 billion in the right hands; some think its potential worth is far greater depending on yet to be determined efficacy/durability. Personally I am accumulating slowly on the s/p weakness...I will consider further s/p weakness as an opportunity. God willing, Simufilam will be the blockbuster treatment so many have been hoping/praying for.
Imagine...possibly relatively soon, a 30ish to 40ish or 50ish year old person tests positive for Alzheimers, or the very strong likelihood of developing it - they are given an immediate life-long RX for Simufilam which stops the disease cold in its tracks or so delays serious cognitive decline that they die from some other old age illness but are spared from the devastating ravages of Alzheimer's. What would that be worth to society? To the victims and their loved ones. Alzheimer's could become a manageable disease. That is the potential which Simufilam currently has, and that is what you are invested in. Don't let this opportunity be stolen from you by the WS bastards.
Patent News...
Cassava Sciences Granted U.S. Patent Application Titled 'METHOD OF INHIBITING TAU PHOSPHORYLATION'
BZ Wire