Cassava Sciences Inc (SAVA)

[FooBarAndGrill]

Marwan Sabbagh: Why is Dementia Misdiagnosis So Common? | Being Patient Live Talk
Link to YouTube Video

[WealthyKing]

Come on $sava someone put some buying pressure on this

[runncoach]

Glad they are presenting

[FooBarAndGrill]

CTAD '23 Presentation and Posters. Boston Oct 24-27

[runncoach]

Probably not as low as some think if the directors keep buying on the open market

[tredenwater2]

Great thumbs up but at this stage the trials have a long way to go.

How is the share price going to hold up for shareholders, well timed insider buys? The last two didnt last long. IF the drug works the reality is the shareholders will hold all the way down to the max pain low end until a buyout comes doubling that low. Another way to look at it is the “buyers” do not want to pay any more then they have to. The million dollar question is what will that low price be?

If the company wasnt already “advertising that the company as for sale it wouldnt be so bad but this is, imo, a green light, for more lows.

[FooBarAndGrill]

P3 interim safety review: Thumbs up!
https://www.cassavasciences.com/news-releases/news-release-details/cassava-sciences-announces-positive-interim-safety-review

[FooBarAndGrill]

Anyone is free to place a lowball GTC bid. It filled. It's not complicated.

[tredenwater2]

Im normally suspect of any director or insider buying unless its on a predetermined timeline long in advance. Look at how he “conveniently” chose a time when the stock was driven to a yearly low. Same scenario, or close to it like last time too.

Whether its a purposeful (buy) signal floor or just a coincidence, it is suspect at best imo.

[Hoskuld]

Interesting thought. Would directors plunk down their own money right now if that were the case?

[runncoach]

Looks like this time was more than temporary or at least long enough for a solid trade. You just never know

[tredenwater2]

The stock is kind f acting like a capital raise is in play. Should hear something in a day or two if so.

[tredenwater2]

It will be interesting to see if any secondaries/ capital raises come out in the next $1 range.

[Hoskuld]

The last floor he put on the stock, if that is what he did, was very temporary. We are in the doldrums now with SAVA - just need to make money from derivatives while we wait.

[tredenwater2]

It's real money to gain or lose. If he's buying we can be sure no buyout in the near future though.

Both points true. Maybe its a way to “protect” his investment from the sharks by putting a temporary floor in the stock.

[runncoach]

It's real money to gain or lose. If he's buying we can be sure no buyout in the near future though.

[tredenwater2]

This Director that buys big seems to buy when the price is super cheap, almost as a prop for the stock. August 22 he bought a big chunk and a nice flashy PR was sent as a buzz through the market. Not saying the data is good or not good, its just questionable to me on “when” he buys. It would be something interesting if there was a way to overlay dilution into these “flashy” PR’s.

Jmho

[Hoskuld]

Carnival barker mode, maybe, but no one is buying a ticket for the show.

[Joseph_K]

Two $SAVA court cases, IIRC, go to trial next year. Aren't they reason to expect major share price jumps, one way or the other, in this long stretch prior to release of new clinical trial results?

[runncoach]

Could be but we know Remi is shopping.

[Hoskuld]

The OL and CMS results were equivocal but gave a signal. IMO there is no way that the company can be purchased based on what is known to date, so IMO shorts with hedges are safe for the next ~16 months.

[runncoach]

That's the chance shorts will take as to timing I guess It would be the buyout scenario I would worry about. I don't hold any currently and haven't for quite some time

[Hoskuld]

Very probable. I don't think Cassava wants to build a company, but wants to sell out. I hope their data is ultimately demonstrably great - am skeptical but would love to have that skepticism blown away.

[Hoskuld]

I don't think insider purchases are bothering short sellers much. Didn't Sandy Robertson buy $2m worth at $25...and now the shares are 17.50? Cassava shares need positive P3 data and that is 16 months out from today.

[tredenwater2]

12-15 months of dead air where short sellers will make bank.

This will be followed by a buyout from BP if the drug is halfway successful, BP has a way of “repackaging” cherry picked marginal results.

[runncoach]

Fair point but apparently they'll have to do it while dodging insider purchases.

[Hoskuld]

Probably some time in October they will announce their trials are fully accrued. That might help for a couple of days - but it will also signal the start of 12-15 months of dead air where short sellers will make bank.

[tredenwater2]

HF’s getting ready to feed once again. Drop the price down to get the best price possible and unload into the market on a spike timing a news release. Wash, rinse, repeat. It doesnt matter how much money Sava has in the bank, they are running two very expensive trials and at some point the “money men” start dictating when they want shares. The more you give the more they control until the CEO is “ghosted” off into the sunset and BP comes in to clean up. The CEO put out the call some time back that management is looking to sell, its all in motion.

If you can get in “the know” a trader can make a lot of coin, its get “in the know” thats the hard part.

Jmho

[FooBarAndGrill]

No catalyst on the schedule. $SAVA is now in the l-o-n-g wait for P3 results.
Today, Cassava was granted a "CONFIDENTIALITY AND PROTECTIVE ORDER" By Judge Ezra.
Case 1:21-cv-00751-DAE Western District Texas

[Joseph_K]

Why this six-week slide in the price? Any thoughts?

I've owned some SAVA shares and bought more today at $18.17 in response to that price action around 1pm today. (I own way more Anavex than Cassava, and I know much, much less about SAVA. It's more like a lottery ticket for me, with some help from price-watching.)

I came over to this board now to ask the above question. I expected to see a bunch of new names. Instead it looks like I never left home!


I guess in the future I should skip my standard signature when I post here on the Cassava board. It's sort of like wearing a Yankees ball cap at Fenway Park.

[FooBarAndGrill]

Cassava has everything going for it except near-term catalysts. Traders and shorts know this.

[Hoskuld]

Full enrollment by end of October seems likely then. This is faster than I expected - good news.

[FooBarAndGrill]

$SAVA 10-Q
https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1069530/000106953023000039/sava-20230630x10q.htm
"As of August 3, 2023, a total of over 1,587 patients have been enrolled in our Phase 3 program."
The last snapshot was June 8th; 1390 enrolled. Target is 1750.

[tootalljones]

Exactly. I also question the confidence in the original dX of "mild to moderate" alz, and also the signs of the disease in a measurable way. The catagories seem very "challengeable." In other areas of medicine you can rely on the assessments and signs of the condition as being "real" and tangible. This provides less confidence in the patient populations in all of alzheimers clinical studies. Which makes Big Pharma to have greater influence with the FDA , which is a proven twice times over institutionally corrupt federal agency, like all the other federal agencies. (*the biogen approval and the covid disaster which one doctor has described it as the greatest harm to human beings in earth's history, the ramifications of which are severe and out into the future, as the lifespans will be shortened and god knows what else, all due to political pressure of cutting corners in the approaval process. FDA a crime spree?
A little guy has very little chance unless he can show a dynamic groundbreaking breakthough, and this is not happening, which suggests the disease or diseases of Alzheimers is not understood. It is hard for the stock prices to rise since the entire foundation is questionable, and the regulator is hostile and influenced. which is why a company like Anavex which is Exhibit A, constantly misses deadlines with no real explanation, and misses trial endpoints although claiming they have been met. The diseases of alzheimers are slippy and probably far far more complex than these alternative companies can imagine. The companies are forced to dissemble, make claims that are never proven by larger populations........
there.

"Ye who listen with credulity to the whispers of fancy, and pursue with eagerness the phantoms of hope; who expect that age will perform the promises of youth, and that the deficiencies of the present day will be supplied by the morrow, attend to the history of Rasselas, Prince of Abyssinia." - Samuel Johnson

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/6f/Rasselas_Cover.jpg/440px-Rasselas_Cover.jpg

[Hoskuld]

LOL very clever retort soupa.

[tredenwater2]

Are the HF’s getting the stock ready for another run at the trough? Get it as low as you can and get the company to release some news so the shares can be “unloaded” into the market. This is a transfer or ip imo and retail just gets caught up in it. Wash rinse repeat at the GOB laundromat!

[Hoskuld]

They release non-stat sig data Crescent. Non-stat sig. Meaning that the effect was no big nor was it consistent. Then then made over-the-top claims about mild patients without giving any proof. Contrast that to 2-73 where Rett and AD trials are all stat sig - even a Rett trial with only 32 patients and 20 on drug.

Now, you post some ridiculous mash up of other trial performances from that Texas nachbar guy and pretend it has validity. That is not the sign of a rational investor but someone trying to pump his position.

[crescentmotor]

Not surprised, knowing your history, that you would lamely attempt to put words in my mouth. I have never said Simufilam results were "spectacular". What I have said is those results are better than the currently approved MAB drugs and the trial data thus far supports that as in the chart I posted on AVXL iHub. You have not put forth a single bit of evidence showing/proving the Simifulam data is bogus or cherry picked. I have a lot of money invested in SAVA (as well as AVXL) and I won't tolerate your baseless attacks without response.

[Hoskuld]

Some people here know me personally. I only tell the truth. I do own SAVA - I own it and make money from it by selling covered calls (although presently and unfortunately am uncovered.)

You don't like the truth about simufilam? I cannot help that. You want to pretend that simufilam results are spectacular? You can - it is a free country. Bet as heavily as you want on Cassava - that doesn't bother me. But, if you are trying to sell others on creative graphing exercises or on cherry picked, post hoc data then someone should point it out.

Sorry SAVA is diving now - maybe $15 on this cycle?

[crescentmotor]

Well--the known SAVA basher Hoskuld from the AVXL board shows up! Best part is he claims he owns 10,000 shares of SAVA because he makes money buying stocks, he does not like for momentum plays. Hard to believe but just check out his posts on the AVXL board.

[Hoskuld]

Fiction?

[mauismart]

I bought avxl today.anavex did well today. Hope it goes up more.

[FooBarAndGrill]

I know what I see here. What do you see?

[Investor2014]

Where does this information about screened versus enrolled patients come from?

“Over 80% of trial applicants were accepted to 2-73 trial”

Link please.

[runncoach]

Any play that focuses on strategies other than plaque removal

[Hoskuld]

What are the alternative AD plays?

[runncoach]

It wasn't. I thought my first post on this topic was clear. These latest alternative AD plays don't appear to halt or reverse the progression of the disease in a broad trial population.

[tootalljones]

it is funny how you say the biking makes you "feel truly alive.".......i am the same way hiking. No matter how blah I feel and sluggish at the start, by mile 3 or 4 I feel the same way, mentally alive.
We are not just imagining this

[Hoskuld]

The lecanemab inclusion criteria was extremely strict. And within that criteria Biogen was an order of magnitude more selective still. I thought your point was that you wanted a treatment for everyone? If it was, that was what Cassava and Anavex aimed to do, too.

[ranchhand71]

Alzheimers drug approved today:
https://endpts.com/alzheimers-drug-leqembi-gets-full-approval-from-fda-allowing-medicare-coverage/