Why would I set a stop limit order during the growth / accumulation phase of the strategy? ;)

The math is simple and I gave it to you. I will answer anyway.

950 / 20 = 47.5mm
325 + 47.5 = 372.5
47.5 / 372.5 = 12.75% common shareholder stake post-RS

vs currently 350mm vs 325mm so 51.85% to 48.14% currently. The thing is the ratio of the RS determines the discount on the shares offered for private investment. I mean, yeah, he could try for more B shares but I suspect this would provide easier money as the potential financiers could sell before the RS for a large immediate profit if they get cold feet. It would be self-limiting in nature and quite lucrative for anyone involved.

New cost basis from $0.26 a share is $5.20/s and at a market cap of $3.45b it would command a 1.5x sales-based pps of $9.26.

Last minute edit: He's going to be in the same room as Newt Gingrich and Harvey Pitt? lol.

Actually, with those numbers, it comes to 420,000,000 common shares after the split. I think you're on to something there and I can't believe I misread it.

Insiders will convert to about 325 million post-split (77.4%) to common's 95 million post-split (22.6%). 325 + 95 = 420.

What other preferred shares? There are currently 23.84MM B-share equivalents outstanding and 350MM common outstanding. They'll increase the allowance to 950MM common, sell the remaining 600MM to private money at a 66% discount just to fleece the common shareholder, use the nearly $200MM in cash to build out facilities and make acquisitions. The 950MM shares will RS 1 for 10 to 95MM, the 23.84MM B's will convert to 235MM common, and each share will be worth about $10.45 by 2020 valuing the company at 1.5 times sales representing 10% of the projected legal marijuana market. Insiders wind up owning 72% of the company but everybody's happy so nobody cares.

Thank you for pointing the other thing out. Why would he wait this long just to pull his "AH-HA!" moment and scoff away with the big bag of certificates? Why bother with such a large scam when a similar amount in a short time or a larger amount in a longer time could be had going and building an actual business? Even if it did start as a scam, and I'll admit the track record is tarnished at best if a fraction of what's on this board and the wider net is true, the opportunity presented legally depending on one or two things happening in the next nine months is staggering. I would consider, if I were in his shoes, waiting until after the votes are complete in November to decide if I want to harvest the scam now or harvest the business later.

What do we want to peg the drop at if the various votes fail in November? 20% or 80%? :P

Terrible, huh? Show me.

Using a standard market cap of $140MM TRTC will increase OS to 950MM. 1 for 10 to 95MM, b shares convert to 200, total OS is 295MM, pps is .147 pre-split to .474

Account Value ->

1,000 shares @ 0.147 = $147
100 shares @ 0.474 = $47.4

Management owns 2/3's of the company, current common owns 1/3. Prevents takeover, can still issue lots of shares to acquire many things, and allows for the option of uplist with a generous increase in market cap. $1.5B @ $5/share. Also I suspect market cap will increase with acquisitions and accumulation of goodwill for brands or what have you.

Let's be even more generous and say they acquire a measly 10% of the projected marijuana market of $23B by 2020. Valued at 1.5x revenue they would command a market cap of around $3.45B, or $11.70/share.

100 shares @ 11.70 = $1,170

Seriously this is a stupid game and unless Derek Peterson is simply the world's biggest, dumbest jerk this could make everybody stupid rich. I doubt the SEC would say much about his bad-boy behavior if everybody makes some money.

Management sold out the shareholders in the name of the shareholders. The company will go bankrupt if they don't change course.

Y'know, it's so hard to find weed on the illicit markets. Nobody wants to sell it, y'know? Just no money in it.

Dude.

It's a speculative marijuana startup company with additional business in super-lettuce. This announcement was about super-lettuce, not marijuana.

If you think this fits in to the marijuana side of the business or not is up to you. It looks like the crowd is a 50/50 split today from our very flat finish.

It depends on what frame of mind one is in. Back in '14 they didn't really have any tangible assets, no history, nothing. Two years later we're here in '16 and the fundamental scene has changed dramatically.

This is either a scam that's out of control or they're legit at this point.

Should we start calling you Fred?

Like grooovy, man!

The only things that make it BS are #1 the timescale is too short and #2 the assumed success of the company within that too-short timescale. TRTC could always buckle for a number of reasons. Mismanagement, attorney generals, IRS, popular backlash, regulatory issues, etc...

If it survives with its position in the industry unchanged I suspect an international expansion will follow just as their region-wide and eventual nation-wide expansion plans will go. If it doesn't it will be bought-out by a company that will.

Not sure if it helps, but I tried asking Reddit's /r/Oakland about what they thought of things.

https://www.reddit.com/r/oakland/comments/4f2tzr/looking_for_local_feeback_on_bl%C3%BCm_oakland/

Who said TRTC is profitable? IIRC they have $24mm in accumulated deficit.

Does it not? They have ~350mln shares issued, and have another ~380mln to issue to take care of the outstanding preferred stock. That's 730mln. 950mln provides a little wiggle room for some more acquisitioning.

Once all that is done they'll do a reverse split to get the price per share up high enough to list on a proper exchange.

(Let's not forget that they can also issue another $75mln in common or debt instruments on top of the 950mln shares)

I think we should consider any stock price before these events to be 4x to 5x higher than it actually is on a cost basis. If the PPS is $0.25 today dilution will eventually cause your effective cost to be about $1.00 to $1.25. Alternatively one can consider any future price calculations to be 4 to 5 times lower.

I think a reverse split of 1:10 would be a healthy move in the long run. The market cap is enough to qualify for NASDAQ or NYSE and with a 1:10 the PPS would be enough, too.

If people get uncomfortable and the PPS drops a bit after the split that's all the more for me. $[^__^]$

I want to know what their relationship with this distributor is like. Does anybody know who they are?

I agree that insider selling is an event to watch. The question I rarely hear asked is why are the insiders selling? Are they selling because they think the pps will decrease? To pay taxes or payroll? Or mybe they were compensated in options that were set to expire? They may not have had the cash on hand to exercise them and hold them.

TRTC is either the real deal or a great scam that's getting out of hand.

I wonder if they decided on a period-average method?

Nevermind, looks like it was only on 10,000 shares. Someone's taking a teeny-tiny bet for Monday. :P

So... Wtf is up with after-hours? Someone taking a bet at $0.26? Weirdness. O_o

$20 barrel is speculation. Front-month WTI is at $45.41 right now. That and the available futures are the only real prices until tomorrow comes.

Call me jaded, however I can't dissassociate a KERP and the possibility of future bankruptcy after I was burned on RSH. There were a lot of other reasons why that company failed, but the retention plan was a correlative part of the process.

To expand on my position, I've made periodic purchases of PGN since January. I am in this boom or bust and I think the company is worth and has the potential to maintain a valuation much closer to the listed equity on the books if things ever normalize.

This was posted today on SA. It looks like COP and HES have different capex and opex profiles for their onshore and offshore plays as I suspect is true for many OC's. The other thing to consider is that offshore tendering might increase when lower dayrates are factored in to capex budgets. It stands to reason that lower dayrates will shift capex away from onshore and even with fixed offshore budgets more contracts will be awarded. If two rigs can be contracted at $100k, three can be contracted at $66k.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3646796-hess-claims-offshore-oil-is-cheaper-than-shale

Don't mind the $0.15 riff-raff, they only serve to distract us from our thoughts.

Most things exist on a sliding scale. UDW offshore is expensive and a few of those projects have been shelved recently, Canadian oil sands project was shelved, Arctic exploration was shelved. Central and South America have promising shallow-water offshore business if they can figure out their business. We can't rely on this, though.

Theoretically I think shallow-water drilling is competitive with light-tight oil and we will start to see that as onshore production drops and offshore production increases at a decreased ratio.

Yeah, Paragon might get swept up with the wider sector on any sentiment changes. We really need some backlog additions soon.

Okay, I went and did the research and here is what I am trying to convey. I was confusing the KERP with the performance retention bonuses announced in 2014.

Radioshack announces retention bonuses March 5th, 2014: http://bizbeatblog.dallasnews.com/2014/03/radioshack-board-approves-promotions-raises-and-a-retention-bonus-for-ceo.html/

Radioshack declares bankruptcy on February 5th, 2015: http://www.wsj.com/articles/radioshack-files-for-bankruptcy-1423175389

I was off by two quarters. Roughly 11 months separated the initial retention bonuses and bankruptcy, although the initial retention bonuses were not explicitly a KERP like the one PGN has announced.

Thank you for making me refresh my memory. Being wrong is bad.

Yeah, between hiring Lazard & Weil, Gotshall & Manages, and now quietly issuing an 8-K pertaining to the Key Employee Retention Plan it's getting harder and harder to ignore the potential of a looming bankruptcy.

There are certainly alternate explanations for everything, but the force is strong with the bankruptcy arguments. Radioshack announced a KERP only a quarter or so before they filed, IIRC.

(Full disclosure, I'm long PGN. If it survives it's going to be unreal. If it goes to court, well, I knew that was a possibility from the beginning.)

Negative. Noble appears to have fully divested itself of all assets, liabilities, and holdings with regard to Paragon Offshore.

Here is the Master Separation Agreement.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1458891/000119312514293924/d769176dex21.htm

PEMEX Shallow Water Auction Results On 7/17.

http://water.velaw.com/MexicoContinuesPrivatizationEnergySectorWaterScarcityMayConstrainDevelopment.aspx

China's Shanghai Shenzehn index has dropped some 30% in the past month.

If this drop equates to a slump in their wider economy I think it could have an impact on their oil imports. This is a problem because China's imports account for some 14% of the world oil trade.

The good news is Chinese regulators have already loosened monetary policy to try and arrest the current drop in equities. This should have the simultaneous effects of bolstering both investor balance sheets and product exports allowing the country to maintain some level of regularity with regard to imports and ongoing production cycles.

Why must 3M shares be sold? They must be sold because Paragon Offshore was recently delisted from the S&P600. There is a post on seeking alpha about it if you would like to read up on it.

Nah, it'll probably piddle about in the doldrums until a change in contracting occurs.

No, from what I understand it's 3.1% of the new company based on a % of what you currently hold.

Say you hold 10% of the current company. You'll get 10% of 3.1%, or .31% of the new company.

Down today on Hercules Offshore declaring bankruptcy.

Does this bode ill for Paragon, or well?

On one hand, the canary in the coal mine is dead. On the other, Paragon has less competition in the GOM.

It should be fun either way. :)

It has to do with how their revenue is structured.

Offshore oil drillers operate on contract. The contracts they have right now are fairly safe, with a few exceptions like PEMEX and Petrobras, but the likelihood of new contracts or contract extensions coming in to replace the expiring ones are slim. This means that 2016 and 2017 could be an absolute bloodbath if oil stays around the same price levels we're seeing today.

Within that statement we have a few camps who think varying thoughts on competitiveness. We have discount drillers with old fleets like Hercules and Paragon. Their fleets are fairly depreciated and old, but they might be able to offer inexpensive services and obtain contracts where companies like Seadrill who have newer, expensive fleets might not be able to compete on a price basis. Some think that the newer fleet operators might undercut the older rigs, but contracts are for one to three years or more and they would lock themselves into an "ugly" contract if they do that and things rebound.

This is only a small snapshot of what's going on, but I think it starts to illustrate why P/E is temporarily so attractive on a few companies.

Perhaps the overall trend for Paragon's market cap will be down until they can secure new contracts. Anything else will produce short-term upside volatility at best.

They hinted at Summer contracting season showing some promise, and called out Hercules Offshore in a recent report. I suspect they'll be looking to shut HERO out of GOM contracts specifically, as they have the Hero 300 and 350 rolling off contract around August.