Reliance Rail. Two of the the biggest concerns that any insurance regulator has with an insurance company is their financial stability and liquidity. If either of these are in question the regulator will often step in ...as was the case with Syncora.

Since, according to the 3Q Report, management told investors that a Reliance Rail refinancing would "greatly improve our liquidity mismatch and the overall stability of our financial condition"

I have to wonder if this will allow the Insurance Regulator to significantly reduce the restrictions that they have placed on Syncora.

One would also think that this would make Syncora a more attractive take over target since a very large and previously unpredictable exposure has been eliminated

Hopefully Syncora will inform investors of the impact that the refinancing will have on it sooner vs later

Reliance Rail Article in full

Reliance Rail is expected to finalise its $2 billion recapitalisation and refinancing next Tuesday with AMP Capital and IPP out of Britain.

The venture, one of the country’s largest outsourcing engineering services companies, is 49 per cent owned by Downer, 34 per cent by AMP Capital and 17 per cent by International Public Partnerships, which is owned by Amber Infrastructure.

The NSW state government had a right to buy all the equity for one dollar as part of an earlier deal to inject $175 million into the business after it had helped to stave off its collapse.

However, IPP and AMP Capital have now opted to buy out the state, offering to recapitalise, refinance and restructure the business, and take on the $2bn debt pile.

Under the deal, the NSW government will not have to inject any money into the business and it will receive extra maintenance facilities, which saves it spending on the new generations of trains.

Reliance Rail was a public-private partnership formed to build the NSW government’s Waratah trains.

AquAsia is working for the state government while Royal Bank of Canada is Reliance Rail’s adviser.

Pending Reinsurance deal. With the refinancing of the Reliance Rail exposure next week I would anticipate that it would clear the way for a reinsurance deal getting done since it would eliminate one of the biggest uncertainties that Syncora was faceing

From the Conference call in regards to Reliance Rail

With respect to Reliance Rail, we are very pleased to report that the parties to the transaction, including Syncora, have been working hard to facilitate a refinancing of the debt obligations related to the largest and one of our most complex credits. We are optimistic that a refinancing will occur and, if it does, that the net result will be a significant reduction in the risk of our insured portfolio, which should greatly improve our liquidity mismatch and the overall stability of our financial condition.

Nice find If I am not mistaken this has been a major issue hanging over Syncora's head in terms of liquidity mismatch

Poor formatting

Sorry for the poor format in the last post.

Adjusted book value dropped from $5.59 at Dec 31/16 to $3.98 at Sept 30/17

Results for 9 months.

headline numbers in the press release do not look great will be interesting to see what is in the entire 3Q statement and what they say on the call..

Non-GAAP basic and diluted
operating (loss) income per common $ (1.42) $ 1.60
share ^ (1)
Basic and diluted weighted
average common shares 86.7 61.7
outstanding

As of As of
September December
30, 31,
2017 2016


Adjusted Book Value ^(1) $ 344.9 $ 484.1
Common shares outstanding at end 86.8 86.6
of period
Adjusted Book Value per common $ 3.98 $ 5.59
share ^(1)

RATINGS RATIONALE

"The positive outlook on RRF's ratings reflects our view of an increased likelihood of a successful refinancing, given supportive capital market conditions and the project's operating track record," says Spencer Ng, a Moody's Vice President and Senior Analyst.

RRF has around AUD1.1 billion of debt maturing between September 2018 and September 2019, representing nearly half of its total outstanding debt.

Moody's believes that recent debt raisings by the Australian infrastructure sector demonstrate the appetite in the capital markets for projects with solid operating track records, subject to the projects meeting minimum debt service coverage ratios.

Consequently, the State of New South Wales' (New South Wales Treasury Corporation, Aaa stable) commitment to infuse AUD175 million of new equity into Reliance Rail — subject to Reliance Rail refinancing below a stipulated credit spread — coupled with retained cash balances, provides RRF with the means to strengthen its capital structure.

"We believe RRF's expected debt reduction funded by the new equity and retained cash increases the likelihood of Reliance Rail being able to meet lenders' minimum required debt service coverage ratios," adds Ng.

Macquarie appears to do this a lot

Other toll road deals soured

The American Roads deal was just one of several Macquarie-linked toll road transactions that banked on what later appeared to be overly optimistic traffic and revenue projections, which were provided by Maunsell, according to court documents, government records and news reports.

• Macquarie and its partners bid $3.8 billion in 2006 to manage the Indiana Toll Road for 75 years, a staggering amount that topped the next-highest bid by $1 billion. Macquarie’s bid was justified by projections from Maunsell, which were more optimistic than those from other consultants, Syncora’s lawsuit alleges. The toll road went bankrupt in 2014.

• Macquarie subsidiaries were heavily involved in the construction and operation of the $847 million South Bay Expressway in San Diego. The road opened in November 2007 but filed for bankruptcy in 2010 after it failed to meet traffic projections, the San Diego Union-Tribune reported. Government records show that Maunsell was an adviser on the project.

• Macquarie and its partners spent $1.8 billion to buy the rights to operate the Chicago Skyway in 2004, more than twice the $770 million “cover bid,” Syncora alleged in its suit. The amount, the insurer claimed, was backed by “optimistic” Maunsell projections. The tolls are so expensive now that Chicago’s WMAQ-TV (NBC-Channel 5) estimated driving the toll road every weekday would cost Chicago commuters $2,000 a year.

I agree

Does not make any sense to me either... below is something I found that has probably already been posted a while ago but given the court appearance tomorrow I thought I would re-post it . When you read what the judge writes you have to wonder why Macquarie has not already settled this...going to court does not seem to be in their best interest


In his 2013 ruling, first noted by Toll Road News, Schweitzer wrote that Syncora presented sufficient evidence that more than bad math and bad luck was at play.

“Far from being an independent third-party, Syncora alleges that Maunsell had a clear economic incentive to provide unrealistically optimistic projections designed solely to help the defendants sell the transaction,” he wrote. “Maunsell was routinely paid undisclosed success fees by Macquarie, on top of Maunsell’s standard engagement fees, for projects that Macquarie successfully acquired as a result of Maunsell’s forecast.”

The judge also wrote in that 2013 decision: “It is eminently reasonable to infer from this collection of facts that Macquarie knew but intentionally concealed from Syncora the fact that Maunsell was not an impartial consultant, that the undisclosed success fees which Maunsell received incentivized Maunsell to inflate its projections, that those projections thus were not prepared in good faith, nor could they be relied upon as an objective assessment and that Macquarie had a strong motive to present them as otherwise.”

Should be interesting what Roads sells for. In hindsight, the fact that Syncora was able to get Detroit to increase the concession on the tunnel from Detroit to Windsor by 20 years may turn out to be a real win.

My guess is that when Syncora was negotiating the concession extension on the tunnel with Detroit they would have tried to ensure that the extension they received was roughly inline with the reaming life of the concessions on the other toll properties that American Roads owned and as such a 15% multiple on EBITDA of $20 million should command a selling price of roughly $300 million or $3.5 a share

toll road valuation model based on EBITDA

http://trustees.smsfassociation.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/What-is-a-toll-road-worth-MAM-RETAIL-March-2017l.pdf

Settlement Soon: They must be getting close to a settlement since it is unlikely that Syncora would have engaged a firm to help them sell American Roads if they anticipated that their legal proceedings involving American Roads would be continuing for much longer.

From what I read I do not see why Syncora would not fall under that overall agreement....am I wrong ?

Full article

Law360, New York (July 6, 2017, 10:08 PM EDT) -- A compromise years in the making to resolve claims against Lehman Brothers for selling billions of dollars' worth of dud mortgage-backed securities before its collapse by using a court-assisted estimation process was approved by a New York bankruptcy judge Thursday, who hailed the deal as "impressively robust."

The multiparty deal approved by U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Shelley C. Chapman stipulates that Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. will waive its right to challenge the court’s ultimate determination of what the defunct firm owes investors for the repurchase of MBS that lost value in the financial crisis.

The agreement, reached after several years of negotiations and failed alternative proposals, calls for a multiweek estimation proceeding to take place in October, wherein the plan administrator has already agreed to seek estimation and allowance of $2.4 billion, and the trustees overseeing hundreds of the MBS trusts have the ability to fight for a higher amount.

Judge Chapman, who has overseen Lehman’s mammoth bankruptcy case and mountain of creditor disputes for years, said she found the agreement more than sufficient and complimented the attorneys and financial professionals who helped put the “highly unusual” but “perfectly acceptable” deal together.

“This is really difficult stuff, and I think that everybody is well aware of what it looks like for litigation not to settle,” she said to a room packed with attorneys. “If you don’t, just look around.”

Institutional investors signed on to the deal in early June, heralding Lehman's promise to back a $2.4 billion claims floor level, but also triggering a spate of objections that prompted a few revisions to the proposed agreement. Notably, Lehman and the investors that had helped the deal come together agreed to remove statements that the claimants found the claims floor to be “fair and reasonable.”

Two objections remained before Thursday’s hearing, including one filed by a group of former employees of affiliated debtor BNC Mortgage Inc., who complained that the settlement may unfairly eat into what they could potentially recover from pending discrimination and wrongful termination claims against BNC.

The other standing objection was filed by iFreedom Direct Corp., which had previously brokered and sold mortgage loans to Lehman and feared that the settlement would adversely affect its ability to defend against indemnification claims sought by Lehman.

Judge Chapman overruled both, finding that the settlement met all applicable factors for “reasonableness,” and that iFreedom would not have its claim defenses impaired.

Of note, she said, investors with significant loss claims have signed on to the deal.

“The fact that the parties with the true economic stake in the amount of $6 billion have stood up and support the settlement and appear to have actively participated in helping this come together goes a long way,” she said.

In the trustee group, U.S. Bank is represented by Franklin Top III and Scott Lewis of Chapman & Cutler LLP, and Michael Kraut of Morgan Lewis & Bockius LLP. Wilmington Trust is represented by John Weitnauer of Alston & Bird LLP. Dwight Healy and Michael Steven Shuster of Holwell Shuster & Goldberg LLP are co-counsel to U.S. Bank and Wilmington Trust. Law Debenture Trust Co. of New York is represented by M. William Munno and Daniel Guzmán of Seward & Kissel LLP. Deutsche Bank National Trust Co. is represented by Dennis Drebsky of Nixon Peabody LLP.

In the institutional investor group, the investors are represented by Robert Madden and Kathy Patrick of Gibbs & Bruns LLP.

In the investor group, the investors are represented by Daniel Fliman and Michael Hanin of Kasowitz Benson Torres LLP, and Nicole Gueron and Isaac Zaur of Clarick Gueron Reisbaum LLP.

The LBHI debtors are represented by Paul Shalhoub and Todd Cosenza of Willkie Farr & Gallagher LLP, and Michael Rollin and Maritza Dominguez Braswell of Rollin Braswell Fisher LLC.

The case is In re Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., case number 1:08-bk-13555, in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York.

AGO still wants to Consolidate the industry

From the notes you can see below AGO plans on hanging tough against taking insured losses on Puerto Rico debt and more importantly still wants to consolidate all other municipal bond insurance cos.....see the last bullet point at the bottom

May 26, 2017

Assured Guaranty plans to defend its rights regarding insured exposure to Puerto Rico debt, sees being able to avoid the kind of outsized losses reflected in its equity valuation, BTIG’s Mark Palmer (buy, PT $49) writes in note after meeting AGO CEO Dominic Frederico, CFO Rob Bailenson.

• AGO reiterated 1Q conf. call comments about how it was glad Puerto Rico’s debt restructuring had reached the courts, as it liked its chances of seeing rights upheld in court; also:
- Emphasized it wouldn’t blink in the face of Puerto Rico’s efforts to force AGO to absorb haircuts on insured exposures
- Said combined exposures of AGO, MBIA, Ambac are big enough to stop efforts to force unpalatable plan on them
- While AGO would be willing to provide insurance to help Puerto Rico to regain capital market access if it’s treated well during the restructuring, would be out of the Commonwealth forever if forced to take a loss on insured exposures
- Successful outcome for creditors would require wholesale revision of fiscal plan certified by oversight board on March 13

• BTIG understands Puerto Rico oversight board will meet today, may decide whether to approve modified Restructuring Support Agreement (RSA) reached last month by Prepa, creditors; AGO said board was likely to sign off on the deal, may be implemented by year end (with last step being court validation of 3.1c/kWh surcharge to cover debt service on securitization bonds Prepa expects to issue)

• AGO also reiterated intent to consolidate all other municipal bond insurance cos.; since 2009 has acquired 3.25 of the 7 competitors it faced prior to financial crisis; remaining 3.75 competitors – Syncora, FGIC, AMBC, MBI still in their sights (counts MBI as .75 of a competitor as AGO had closed buy of MBIA UK Insurance in Jan.)

Over 3.5 million shares just traded hands ....

Try this link For the macquarie story if the one provided by Lincoln72 does not work for free... you might have to copy and paste

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/financial-services/macquarie-cant-avoid-us-toll-road-lawsuit/news-story/63ca82b108094988ba50aaea5561a0f1

Back near $2 again

It has been interesting to see the significant increase in volume over the last 3 days going into month end. Roughly 1.5 million shares have been traded and a lot of those in mid to large blocks. At an average price of roughly $1.85 that translates into about $2.8 million.

People buying in at these price levels and for that amount of money are not anticipated a mere 10% to 20% return on there investment. There is still considerable risk to Syncora and as such an investor would be looking for a return significantly above those levels.

On the flip side, someone might say that if the upside has so much potential why are people selling. I believe that the people selling at this stage may have bought in the sub $1 range and as such have already made a significant return and just want to crystalize part or all their gains. Some of the larger selling blocks could be some of the institutions that were historically given shares of Syncora in exchange for concessions.

Looking back in history the last time this stock climb to the $2 level was in Feb of 2014 when it shot up from just und $1 to over $2 in a day or say when the JPM settlement was announced. The inter-day high for the stock during the first week of March 2014 was $3.85 with the highest closing price being $2.75 on March 3.

By March 14th the stock had worked its way down to $2 and was range bound between $1.8 and $2.4 until mid June 2015. It was at this point that the last of the mutual funds that still held Syncora started to sell off their north of 3 million shares position. This put strong selling pressure on the stock and without any positive catalysts to attract new buyers to offset the selling pressure the stock was driven all the way down to below $0.30 by the end of 2015. They wanted out and since it was an insignificant holding in their portfolio the prices they were able to get out at did not matter.

Then in Feb of 2016 the re-org was announced and the stock shot up to $1 again.

Since then we have seen the stock move slowly over the last year …and yes, the key word is slowly ….back up to just under the $2 level. This slow relatively steady climb shows me that Syncora has indeed turned the corner and investors are beginning to value the company based on its current fundamentals as well as its future opportunities. Syncora has a lot going for it when you include the potential windfalls from major legal cases, strengthening fundamentals of its core and ancillary businesses as well as massive NOLs.

Just my thoughts of course…..have a good weekend.

looked him up on linkedin he has only been out of school for 4 years

KBW Analyst On Call

I found it very interesting and encouraging that besides a couple of analysts from small shops there was an analyst on the call from KBW which is the premiere shop for Research specializing in financial services with a coverage list of over 200 companies.

Now before we get overly excited...Syncora is not officially on their coverage list and the analyst on the call was relatively junior ....but he was well prepared and seemed to understand the business ...which means that the leaders of the research team he works on told him to be on the call and the questions would have been run by them first and the subsequent answers reported back to them.

Will be interesting to see if the pool of analysts expands on the next call.

Just a historical note.

Not that it has anything to do with Syncora's NOLs but during the financial services crises the Internal Revenue Service changed the rules around NOL's and allowed banks that bought other banks to use the full amount of the acquired company's NOLs to offset the purchaser's income.

Wells took advantage of this when it bought Wachovia. Wells paid $15 billion for Wachovia and because of the change in the tax act Wells would be eligible to use $75 billion in Wachovia loan losses to offset Wells' income.

To bad the IRS will not allow that to apply to insurance companies.

Also I am not sure if this NOL treatment for banks buying banks is even still on the books or was it changed after the financial services crises ended

Statement is Out

Looks very good but the follow are two keep points which come from the Subsequent Events Section


This one increase Common Equity by $37 million

Settlement of Proof of Claim with Lehman Brothers

On July 22, 2016, SGI announced that it had reached an agreement in principle for the settlement of its sole existing claim and related litigation with LBHI and Structured Asset Securities Corporation. On September 20, 2016, the settlement became effective. The settlement resolves all claims in respect of the Syncora Claim in return for an allowed unsecured claim of $37.0 million in the Lehman bankruptcy estate. The Lehman bankruptcy payout on unsecured claims is currently approximately 36 cents on the dollar. This transaction is considered a Type II – Subsequent Event for which a gain will be recognized in the third quarter of 2016, when the previous approval contingencies were resolved. The settlement is expected to increase the Company’s net income and shareholders’ equity by the amount ultimately paid by the Lehman bankruptcy estate.

This one is very important because it takes away some of the overhang from the future Liquidity Issue that has been hanging over Syncora for years now

Pike Pointe Board Approves Distribution to Syncora Guarantee

The Board of Managers of Pike Pointe approved a distribution of $50.0 million to SGI conditioned upon the successful closing of the restructuring transactions which took place on August 12, 2016 as described above. As Pike Pointe is a wholly-owned subsidiary of SGI, this distribution will not have an effect on the Company’s consolidated financial statements, but will increase SGI’s liquidity position by such amount. This distribution was made on August 12, 2016.
As a result of the aforementioned restructuring transactions and liquidity enhancing measures, SGI’s liquidity position is expected to materially improve its ability to satisfy future obligations and therefore mitigate certain of the significant risks and uncertainties described in Note 2.

The following is a cut and paste of Denny's comment on this case back when it first appeared. As he states the BIG CASE ...Greenpoint...is still alive and well and in my opinion should be easier for Syncora to prove their point since Lehman saved itself an turned the blam on Greenpoint


From the CounterSuit (PACER WALL) Lehman case - this one was settled, Lehman appears to have successfully pointed out Capital One (Greenpoint) fault as 'originator' vs them being just the 'packager'

Lehman counterSuit
https://www.inforuptcy.com/filings/nysbke_258240-1-15-ap-01112-lehman-brothers-holdings-inc-and-us-bank-national-association


Greenpoint still very much Active // No filings here:
http://iapps.courts.state.ny.us/iscroll/SQLData.jsp?IndexNo=600352-2009

Lehman and CapOne had worked together, but then Lehman turned blame on Greenpoint

This came out in July

HAMILTON, Bermuda, July 22, 2016 /PRNewswire/ – Syncora Holdings Ltd. ("SHL" or the "Company") today announced that its wholly owned, New York financial guarantee insurance subsidiary, Syncora Guarantee Inc. ("SGI"), has reached an agreement in principle for the settlement of its sole existing claim and related litigation with Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and Structured Asset Securities Corporation ("Sasco"). If consummated, the terms of the settlement will resolve all claims in respect of SGI's proof of claim filed on January 13, 2010, against Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and Sasco in the United States Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York, relating to the GreenPoint Mortgage Funding Trust 2006-HE1 transaction, in return for an allowed unsecured claim of $37 million in the Lehman bankruptcy estate.

3 weeks...including this week...left for the Conference call that was announced when the Q1 Statements were released. Wondering what they have been working on or waiting for that has delayed it this long.

Not sure how it will all play out but at least it is unlikely Syncora has insured any of that debt since it was all issued long after Syncora stopped writing new business

No Date For Conference Call Yet

Below is the response I got back today from Syncora

Timing and details for the call have not been confirmed yet. As soon as there is any news we will be making an announcement.

Kind regards,
Mike.

Michael Corbally
Managing Director & Chief Administrative Officer
Syncora Guarantee
E-mail: michael.corbally@scafg.com

Q1 results on Website press release below

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/syncora-holdings-ltd-announces-statutory-financial-results-for-first-quarter-2016-300267963.html

Great piece on Syncora's Detroit potential


It may have lost millions in its bankruptcy settlement with Detroit, but Syncora Guarantee Inc.'s bet on greater downtown real estate appears to be paying off.

At least one of the properties the bond insurer now has development rights to on the east riverfront and near Greektown would play a key role in Dan Gilbert's and Tom Gores' ambitious $1 billion plan announced last week to bring a Major League Soccer team and a new stadium and mixed-use development downtown.

Whether the development on the site of the half-built Wayne County Consolidated Jail ever gets off the ground, Syncora's acceptance of developing rights to the former Detroit Police Department headquarters building as well as about 8.3 acres of east riverfront land near Chene Park seems to have made the haircut it will take on its bankruptcy claim less drastic than originally thought.

Particular properties along the riverfront have gained significant value in the 18 months since Bermuda-based Syncora settled a $333 million bankruptcy claim for $44.8 million in new debt, a lease to operate the Detroit-Windsor Tunnel, a long-term lease of a Grand Circus Park parking garage, development rights to the DPD building at 1300 Beaubien and land.

In large part, that's because development surrounding the riverfront property has been happening at a frenetic pace, said Dennis Bernard, founder and president of Southfield-based Bernard Financial Group Inc., which originates debt for real estate acquisition and development.

He pointed to the $65 million first phase of the Orleans Landing mixed-use development and the $42 million construction of DuCharme Place in Lafayette Park as two examples of new multifamily construction pumping up property values around Syncora-controlled land just north of Chene Park.

"Whether it's a potential soccer stadium, additional recreation for the city, multifamily — you're going to see increased value and development along that spur," he said. "In other words, that spur is becoming more pedestrian and user friendly, and with that comes safety and other opportunities."

No formal plans have been announced for the largely vacant block north of Chene, which consists of five parcels with city and private ownership, although there has been interest in the site.

Syncora also has development rights to another property, this one known to be part of the stadium plans: the former DPD building, built in 1923 and designed by Albert Kahn.

It sits in the planned 15.5-acre arena development site.

And although aerial renderings of the development plans released last week don't appear to show it still standing, Matt Cullen, president and CEO of Gilbert's Rock Ventures LLC, said that demolition of the building has not yet "been contemplated."

It could also be redeveloped as a historic renovation project, he said.

Regardless, the Gilbert-Gores team would have to purchase the building — and with a $1 billion plan with approximately 1 million square feet of space on the line, would likely pay a substantial sum for it, despite the fact that it has experienced serious maintenance issues in the past couple of years.

For its part, Syncora said in a prepared statement: "We currently are not in a position to discuss the details of the properties on which we have options. We continue to work with the City and are excited about Detroit's growth and revitalization."

Matt Lester, founder and CEO of Princeton Enterprises LLC, said the DPD building could have been viewed as "a liability or of marginal value."

"It now appears to have significant value in light of the potential redevelopment of the jail site and the various redevelopments planned along the Gratiot corridor," he said.

"If anything, that building has development capabilities right away. There is a lot of value inherent in that asset," said AJ Weiner, managing director in the Royal Oak office of brokerage firm Jones Lang LaSalle.

"There is a general feeling that the boat has somewhat sailed for the CBD (central business district), so you're seeing a lot of interest going east along the river and west through Corktown, north through New Center and Midtown," said Marc Nassif, managing director, Midwest, of the Livonia office of Dallas-based BBG Inc., a commercial real estate appraisal firm.

"The interest for those properties has truly become national. They want market studies and feasibility studies," he said. "Two years ago they were local calls, and now they are coming from across the country."

Lester, whose company has real estate holdings along the river, said the bond insurer's gamble on riverfront real estate was a wise one.

"The value of that real estate has only been enhanced over the past 18 months and may have gone up in value as much as 20 to 50 percent or more, depending upon the value attributed to it through the bankruptcy proceeding."

If the property is flipped for a soccer stadium, or if Syncora participates in any development of the properties it controls, the moves could enhance the bond insurer's investment in Detroit's recovery, said Douglas Bernstein, a banking and bankruptcy partner with Bloomfield Hills-based Plunkett Cooney PC.

"It would certainly give them an opportunity to enhance their return," Bernstein said. "It would essentially mean they waited two years to convert their claim into cash."

Flipping the properties to Gilbert and Gores also would help the bond insurer exit the real-estate business and avoid what could be costly development costs, particularly with the old DPD headquarters, Bernstein said.

"There's probably remediation that's going to be necessary, and I assume asbestos, which dramatically increases the cost of demolition," Bernstein said.

The land development agreement is with Syncora subsidiary Pike Pointe Holdings LLC.

Comparable sales are difficult to come by because of the overall size of the riverfront property. However, data from Washington, D.C.-based CoStar Group Inc. for land sales between the Detroit-Windsor Tunnel and the Belle Isle bridge sheds some light on how much the bond insurer could earn from selling the property.

Since the Syncora deal was struck in September 2014, a 0.33-acre parcel at 2100 Guoin St. sold for $500,000 in July, or $1.5 million per acre; and a 0.6-acre parcel at 1944 E. Jefferson Ave. sold for $400,000, or $667,000 per acre, in January 2015, according to the real estate information service.

Based on those per-acre prices, the 6.79 acres north of Chene Park that Syncora controls would sell for between $4.53 million and $10.19 million.

Syncora received development rights to a total of 8.35 acres of riverfront land. Based on the per-acre prices since September 2014, that would sell for between $5.57 million and $12.53 million.

Between Jan. 1, 2010, and the Syncora deal, there were seven land sales in the area, with known sale prices ranging between $225,000 and $852,000 per acre. However, none of those properties totaled more than 2.24 acres.

Syncora isn't the only bond insurer to let the city resolve some of its debt with real estate interests. Financial Guaranty Insurance Corp. receiveddevelopment rights for Joe Louis Arena, which is slated for demolition and to be replaced by a hotel with at least 300 rooms and standing no more than 30 stories; and a mix of office, retail, recreation and residential space, according to bankruptcy court documents. The property sits on about 9 acres.

The interest in land given to Syncora during Detroit's bankruptcy does not surprise Melissa Jacoby, a University of North Carolina law professor and bankruptcy expert who followed the city's case.

"The whole point was to predict the future, and I speculated that the percentage of recovery that Syncora or FGIC would be getting was potentially significantly greater than was being announced" in 2014, she said.

"In terms of whatever bet Syncora made, there's a big chance this real estate is going to be worth more, and we'll need to re-evaluate the extent of the haircut that they supposedly took," Jacoby added.

The Detroit bankruptcy was significant for its size and the use of real estate to settle claims with Syncora and FGIC, the last major holdout creditors in the case, Jacoby said.

"I'm not trying to make them out like they got the best deals in the case — we'll see," Jacoby said. "The last holdouts are not supposed to do well."

Attempts to reach Ian Glastein, vice president of New York City-based Monarch Alternative Capital LP, who is working on behalf of FGIC on its Detroit real estate, were unsuccessful.

I reached out to michael Corbally at Syncora on the 13th of April and he said that no date as of yet has been set.

My guess and its just a guess is maybe they are waiting for something they think is going to happen very soon so that they can cover it off in the conference call...but as I said that is a total guess

Very interesting trading...at no point has the actual selling price been more than 1 cent off the ask...someone is certainly trying to control the upward movement...you would like that given the financials that came out last night that we would have seen a much wider range between the bid and ask as sellers try to get a feel for just how badly buyers want in

Thanks for the update....interesting news and its about time the courts started to push this forward.

Might you have a rough estimate of the potential size of settlement?

Thanks

2015 Financials for Syncora Holdings Limited - not out

Not out yet of course. But it will be interesting to see when they do come out. In 2013 and 2014 they were released in June while last year they were released at the end of April.

I have a feeling they will be providing consolidated financials within the next few weeks. My guess is that they are basically already compiled. They might hold them back hoping to get PREPA finalized.

I share your frustration and I am hoping this marks a turning point

They have to use the word stakeholder to be politically sensitive to the regulators.

I have mentioned a few times that selling buy a major mutual fund drove down the price and this is the first positive report from Syncora since their selling started...which by the way is now over. So the next few days will be very interesting

Another interesting comment

The Company also confirmed that it continues to actively pursue its strategic initiatives to increase value for Syncora stakeholders. Claude LeBlanc, Chief Financial Officer and Chief Restructuring Officer, said, "Following the successful completion of the amendment to the Master Transaction Agreement and entry into a new capital support agreement during the third quarter of 2015, the Company continues to actively pursue its strategic plan and has been engaged in discussions with certain stakeholders and the New York Department of Financial Services with the goal of enhancing value for all stakeholders."

Potential Game Changer

During the fourth quarter of 2015, SGI completed certain significant commutations and other related transactions that have resulted in a material improvement to SGI's policyholders' surplus position since the filing of its third quarter 2015 statutory financial statements.

Specifically, SGI completed transactions that commuted and reinsured key structured single risk credits with refinancing, foreign exchange and/or index-linked risks, as well as structured RMBS credits. The aggregate effect of these commutations reduced SGI's net par outstanding by $1.7 billion and had a positive policyholders' surplus benefit of $116.5 million, as compared to SGI's third quarter 2015 statutory financial statements.

These transactions also reduced SGI's forecasted gross claim payments related to its "liquidity mismatch" from $503.1 million to $182.1 million as of December 31, 2015. See the "Significant Risks and Uncertainties" footnote in SGI's recently filed Annual Statement for a description of this "liquidity mismatch".

Sell Off

This sell off....just like the last 6 months...has been the one big mutual fund selling out their position. They obviously want to be out be December 31 and don’t care what they drive the price down to because Syncora more than likely represents less then 0.001 percent of their fund now.

If you want to block/ignore message posts from someone then following these steps.
1) Open a post from them
2) Scroll all the way down the page to almost the very bottom of your browser window
3) Near the bottom you will see an " Ignore User" tab in the middle of the page