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Unfamiliar with "volume scholastics." Fundamental, technical, or algo developed by you? Or something else? TIA
Dr. Missling cited a UBS study of the AD "market as big as $13 billion to $67 billion" in his presentation to the OneMed Forum 8 on January 13. The Webcast link is on the company website; see slide 7. That's a big range.
Also the Alzheimer's market is estimated to be worth $20 billion, according to Margaret Patrick reporting on "The Market's Response to Biogen's and Eli Lilly's Alzheimer's Drugs" at the Alzheimer's Association International Conference on July 22. (article in news releases of July 28).
AVXL valuation is also affected to some extent by the full range of indications in the rich pipeline, shown on the Co. website. Enough for now to note that future development and trials will require more funds, so the 162 million outstanding shares will likely march toward the authorized 400 million shares. Plenty of room for speculation -- so much potential and so many unknowns.
FBIOX taking an initial position would be great. Their 29% yld is No. 1 in their fund category this year, and they have been in the top 4 health funds since 2011.
What do you think contributed to the recent surge in AVXL pps and volume? Do you know Fidelity's criteria for buying a microcap stock and how close we might be to the threshhold? If our OS is over 162 million shares as shown on AVXL web site, then the current price puts our market cap far above what Yahoo Finance shows. That will be important to a fund, and the recent high trading volumes might have caught their notice.
The asset allocation profile on Morningstar shows FBIOX has 13.75% microcap stocks of the fund's $16.38 billion net assets. The benchmark average is 0.67%, and the health category average fund has 0.49% microcaps. So they're a giant fund with an outsized proportion of microcap holdings.
Without knowing the fund quarter by quarter performance history, I'd say they do a great job of selecting microcaps that achieve tremendous growth. The last quarter they ended with 238 holdings and their turnover ratio was 61, so it seems they do a significant amount of trading.
Noted "a bit OT." Lighten up. EOM
Recent polymer research creating high temperature stability and high energy density materials. A bit OT but illustrating material innovations.
http://phys.org/news/2015-07-polymer-energy-higher-temperatures.html
http://phys.org/news/2015-07-sol-gel-capacitor-dielectric-record-high-energy.html#nRlv
The unknowns in technology advance challenge Mantra's adoption.
Lots of North American universities with impressive intellectual and financial resources are seeking to commercialize the IP they have patented or are working on. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory urges collaborations and partnerships for a clean energy future.
Laboratory demonstrations flobally lead to IP rights that are moving toward large scale commercial adaptation. Some examples:
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/07/150701083051.htm
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/06/140611093352.htm
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/07/150723211153.htm
Duke University researchers have developed an ultrafast light-emitting device that can flip on and off 90 billion times a second and could form the basis of optical computing.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/07/150727092535.htm
I'm expecting Lightwave will be in the mix with cutting-edge photonics advances. I'd hate to be be passed by on the move to optical communications and computing, etc.
Slow and steady? The daily chart is parabolic.
"GuruFocus has just conducted a thorough checkup for AVXL using a checklist that cover the areas of financial strength, profitability, growth and valuations.
Warning! We have found severe the warning signs with AVXL
These warning signs do not necessarily mean that you should not invest in the stock. But you should definitely be aware of them before you put your money in."
Yesterday I found their free service -- very nice graphical display. Today came the warning and a pitch for their subscription service. I guess their algorithm spotted the same overbought technical indicators that I see.
Do traders realize what typically happens when prices swiftly move several standard deviations from their moving averages? It's like stretching a rubber band. Market forces/players decide how far and how fast. We're in a volatile day/week here, especially if the shorts are still in the wings waiting.
All set for fireworks? I'd guess gap up opening. Momo and day traders take to $1.00 and then a bit above the catch the dollar level buyers. Then ST day traders sell on balance and short sellers hit it. Rapid drop.
Time for me to stay out of the fray. My only cash is in a retirement account.
Also, thanks to all who commented on my market data analysis. MB active posters corrected some mistakes and filled in gaps from the OTC Markets and Yahoo data sources I used. Form the March SEC filing I learned that the approved shares increased to 400,000,000, so that's a probable dilution target. As of May 14 OS 162,254,212.
Market-based numbers for the past three weeks give some perspective on the recent surge.
On Monday. June 6 the high and close prices topped 50 cents (.50) for the first time in many months. Since then AVXL has closed between .46 (46 cents) and .49 three times, from .50 to .53 nine times, and above .50 the last three days -- .64, .65, and .76 respectively. For 12 days a continuation of the upward trend within the rising channel, and then a dramatic price breakout.
This time also showed a corresponding surge in the volume traded. For the past 15 market days trades totaled 61,507,800 shares. Over 31 million shares traded the past three days. In these three weeks a large percentage of the outstanding shares -- 79.63% of 77,243.580 shares -- and the float -- 90.45% of 68 million shares were traded. The daily average was over 4.1 million shares.
Current records show that the float is 88.03% of the outstanding shares. Currently insiders hold 24.33% while institutions hold a mere 0.70%. Short interest as of June 30 is 4,814,791.
So far this is a retail traders game. There are no major analysts or brokerage house recommendations -- not yet. Company releases, market data, SEC filings, and some third party interviews and reports furnish individuals with most of the tangible data.
None of that data shows the relative mix of buy and hold investors, short term traders, and day traders or scalpers. Of course MB posters furnish some anecdotal tidbits, but it's mostly guesswork.
My take on the above data for this recent volatile period: most of the buyers since the bottom in the .16 to .25 range have sold some shares. They could have sold less that half of their holdings and still have the rest at zero or very low basis. It's a low risk opportunity that developed very quickly. I'd guess many buyers in the .26 to .45 range used the breakout of the past three days to sell as well. They had the rare opportunity to sell about half their shares in a very liquid market and still retain the balance with little or no basis cost -- all within a couple of weeks. Of course some buy and hold, continue to accumulate, recoup (paper) losses, and various other trading tactics play their part. Maybe some insiders parted with shares. Form 4 filings will let us know.
We've seen very large trading volume, and perhaps turnover in ownership as well, in this month, and it's not over yet. On the charts technical indicators are at overbought levels, but positive news could send prices and volumes to even greater extremes. Absent news, there could be a period of consolidation or even a drop in price due to more profit-taking.
It's really hard to know what present value is because of continuing clinical trials, possible financing or partnership deals, or the effect of so many new investors becoming aware of AVXL. The potential is great, but it could get delayed or derailed in many ways.
Bottom line: consolidating market numbers is easier than knowing what to do about them. Normally I hesitate to chase soaring stocks, but this one may be on an even bigger run. It that all I can say? For now, yes.
High close for the year, but not all time high close.
My Fidelity account has a 10 year monthly chart on the snapshot page. I would think that is common for many brokerage services.
For ADXS the 10 year chart shows the July 2005 monthly bar has the all-time high prices. That month has open: $156.25, high:
$156.25, low: $43.75, and close: $62.50. Volume 1,800 shares. What a record.
I cannot get more than 10 years of data for small stocks. So it may be that higher ADXS prices occurred in older trading. Big charts free service does not give 10 years of data. Does anyone know of free services that give more than 10 years of chart data for small-cap stocks?
"I'm not sure how to explain LWLG's valuation being so far out of whack but based on other surprises in the market which happen every day, I can accept that sometimes shareprice is not a good reflection of what is coming."
That's for sure, Rick. Post #33211 on the ihub ADMD mb last week:
"Check out the PBMD message board days before the news came out. Hardly any posts...and most were about the fear of dilution and R/S. So not many eyes on it before the big news."
PBMD is an Aussie biomed supplier with IHUB posts #33 to #77 running from 09/05/13 to 05/14/15 -- about 21 months! Clinical trials were in process. Then on 05/19/15 news broke that sent the price up 270% and trading volume more than double the OS that single day on NASDAQ GM. Talk about "future shock!"
FWIW, a casual look at the 5 year chart on PBMD's mb shows a pattern with some resemblance to LWLG's chart from March 2005 to present. Oh, remember to drop the last week off the PBMD chart.
Is there a new "Twelve Angry Men" with James Stewart?
The great 1957 film I enjoy starred Henry Fonda. But I can't keep up with the remakes of such classics.
The Great Transition to Renewable Energy, Solar Power and Wind energy
May 16, 2015 reve
The global transition to clean, renewable energy and away from nuclear and fossils is well under way, with remarkable developments happening every day. The Great Transition by Lester Brown, Janet Larsen, Matt Roney, and Emily Adams lays out a tremendous range of these developments – here are seven that may surprise you.
6. Transportation will move away from oil as electric vehicle fleets expand rapidly and bike- and car-sharing spreads.
Bike-sharing programs have sprung up worldwide in recent years. More than 800 cities in 56 countries now have fully operational bike-share programs, with over 1 million bikes. In the United States, by the end of 2012 some 21 cities had 8,500 bikes in bike-share racks. By the end of 2016, this is expected to climb to over 70 cities with close to 40,000 bikes.
The share of carless households increased in 84 out of 100 U.S. urban areas surveyed between 2006 and 2011. And as urbanization increases, this share will only rise.
Car fleets are plateauing or have begun to shrink in most major car markets, including the U.S., Europe and Japan.
Car-sharing programs are expanding rapidly. The Frost and Sullivan research group projects that the 3.5 million drivers enrolled in car-share programs worldwide in 2013 will soar to 26 million by 2020.
Bloomberg New Energy Finance projected worldwide electric car sales would hit 300,000 in 2014, and while this is less than 1 percent of total auto sales, the industry is “in the process of passing through the credibility barrier.”
Ultimately EVs and PHEVs will challenge the dominance of traditional gasoline- and diesel-powered vehicles, and this may happen sooner than most people realize.
The global financial services firm UBS projects that by 2020 battery costs will be slashed in half, making electric vehicles cost-competitive with traditional cars. With annual savings of up to $2,400 expected on fuel costs, the electric car becomes the obvious choice.
About 80 percent of the remaining oil reserves are held by national oil companies – not by private oil majors like ExxonMobil and BP, meaning that remaining access to oil will have geopolitical implications perhaps even beyond what we’ve seen to date.
http://www.evwind.es/2015/05/16/the-great-transition-to-renewable-energy-solar-power-and-wind-energy/52155
Thanks DLucky and microchips. Now we know more of what were "unknowns."
How many remain none of us on this board know -- maybe nobody really knows. That's not necessarily bad, but it is frustrating for those who anticipated breakthrough news at the ASM meeting.
Congratulations, boatlife. You saw about the same things in the chart patterns that I did.
For now I am waiting to see how long pullback lasts and what FDA decides.
Sometimes you can't hurry the science.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/stubborn-ge-scientist-creates-fuel-183941024.html
The time for commercialization of LWLG products may not be so new as going back to the time frame in the SeeThruEquity report. CEO Zelibor went to their NY conference in June 2013 and the analyst report was released in January 2014. I have not accessed the report recently, but recall that the projected pps of $2.71 was not for a year or two, but four or five years away.
Bottom line, I have been a bit surprised by the more recent aggressive timeline and am not so disappointed today as many recent posters.
"Dated" research -- you are a master of understatement.
Third Point Research first paragraph in your link concludes: "We believe odds of FDA clearance by mid-2014 are above 80%." Oh, care to update us on how that has gone.
What is not dated is incessant chatter about possible product introduction, revenues, income, etc. We're still waiting.
On the technical front the shouts of "Golden Cross" keep appearing. A couple of days ago I noted that technical stock indicators were mixed, and that the 50 week MA would likely prove resistance at this time and price level. IMO the last three days stock action are pretty clear.
A golden cross is approaching on the daily chart, but on a longer term view the 50 week MA is descending. It is currently 0.0062, which is approaching the current price. The 0.0050 area shows some congestion on the weekly chart. The rather flat price action and lower volume of the past week reflects some resistance.
The weekly MFI is in overbought territory, and the trajectory of the Bollinger Bands and the money flow index (MFI) technical indicators are flattening.
ADMD has made a great rally off the December lows, but five months later the technical indicators are mixed. The bullish trend is still intact. Yet it may be time for a pause until the FDA news or other items of fundamental importance occur.
I've had a relative that was greatly helped by an earlier version of the therapy under development here. IMO many will benefit if this promising IP suite reaches its potential by quality financial practices.
Tiny new device steers light around sharper corners than ever before. Maybe another piece in the optical computing puzzle.
http://www.gizmag.com/utep-ucf-light-bending-lattice/37080/
Perhaps some are selling today on the news of Tesla's proposed battery suite at the "gigafactory" in Nevada. That's still some years away.
https://news.fidelity.com/news/news.jhtml?cat=Top.Investing.RT&articleid=201505010021RTRSNEWSCOMBINED_L1N0XR42K_1&IMG=N
http://www.reuters.com/video/2015/05/01/tesla-unveils-batteries-for-homes?videoId=364066567&videoChannel=5
But WL likely will have a more immediate payoff by selling Hectatone used in deep well drilling for geothermal power already underway in Texas. This is my speculation by connecting the dots.
"The SMU Geothermal Laboratory, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), the Bureau of Economic Geology at the University of Texas and others have analyzed the geothermal resource potential of Texas, and it holds tremendous promise. Capturing even just 14 percent of the heat beneath Texas could provide nearly 300,000 MegaWatts of electrical generation capacity for years and years — that’s almost three times Texas’ total electrical generation capacity from all sources (GRC Trans. Vol 25, Blackwell et al, 2011). Distinctly different from the very high temperature steam fields of California and Nevada, the geopressure-geothermal resource along most of the Gulf Coast is lower temperature and fairly deep, with temperatures in the area averaging ~200°F at 12,000 feet, transitioning to ~400°F by 21,000 feet. Although in areas of South Texas, the heat is significantly closer to the surface.
While years ago, drilling to such depths may have been cost prohibitive, it is now fairly routine in Texas. In fact, of the 4,803 drilling permits approved in South Texas’ Railroad Commission District 4 since 1/1/2011, 30 percent were for depths exceeding 12,000 feet, with 6 percent exceeding 17,000 feet (data query on 4/6/2015)."
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2015/04/using-geothermal-solutions-to-desalinate-oil-field-water
Best to all LT longs. Info
Fidelity had my proxy papers available in the online account. It was easy for me to vote once I made my decision.
I voted yes for all proposals.
A lot of thoughtful posts today.
All things considered, I'm glad I did not sell ADX? and buy MVTG just because yesterday one was at the 52 week high and the other set a new 52 week low. A look at their respective charts will show you why.
Sometimes I sell the top of range and buy the new lows on heavy volume to take some profits and lower risk. In this case, the immunotherapy development-stage biotech soared to a new 52 week high today following the breakout of multiple tops and the innovative fuel cell stock here may, IMO, be in the doldrums for a while.
There's been enough pointed criticism today to bring forth Ganter50's extended and helpful explanations of possible IP issues. Makes the stock worth watching and waiting. In my case the company will have to make a compelling case and advance both business and technology aspects to compensate for the delay. We will see.
The 100K volume yesterday was enough for the shorts to have covered.
Whether and to what extend they did is unknown. Just my observations based on trading volumes.
And what a contrast with today's volume!
It may be hard for Japan to match Nevada for a giga-factory site. Add to that the consensus culture of Japan, and it may be slow going for the hard-charging Tesla folk. But best not diss potential partners.
Nevada: Average Annual State and Local Taxes: $3,370.
Difference from National Average: -52%.
Adjusted Rank by Cost of Living: 2.
Nevada ranks as the third best state in regard to low state and local taxes, with an average tax bill of $3,370 per year. In comparison, Idaho, Oregon, and California have average tax bills of $7,776, $8,416, and $9,509, respectively. Instead of collecting an income tax from residents, Nevada takes in almost a billion dollars in gambling-related taxes and fees each year.
Source: Top 10 States With the Lowest Taxes
Read more: http://www.cheatsheet.com/business/top-10-states-with-the-lowest-taxes.html/?a=viewall#ixzz3W1vow8EK
Gates, you said "The pps has been virtually stagnant for the last decade." Looking at a Fidelity LT chart with monthly bars, I see the price did not move much until March 2005 -- 10 years ago. That month the open was $1.10, the high was $5.45 (still the all time high for the stock), the low was $0.60, and $4.30. The volume was 734,500 compared with 35,500 the previous month. Apparently 10 years ago Lightwave (not its name at that time) exploded to new highs on great expectations. They were not fulfilled then and are not yet realized.
The all-time lows were between $0.38 and $0.50 in late 2008 and early 2009. We are now discouragingly near that area with the close yesterday at $0.845. But our volume this month will be around 2 million shares traded. On March 13 the short interest was at 12,198 shares when the price closed at $0.8775 according to OTC Markets. Short interest was the highest since the end of December 2014.
For my part, I am still watching, waiting, and holding all the shares I started accumulating in November 2009 until recently.
James, your initial buying is added encouragement to some of us who have been holding a long time and averaged down recently during this extended base building.
I hope you are right about a breakout soon. It's not likely to be more than a couple months from what filings and PRs indicate.
If you look at the TCEL two month chart you will see a lot of shares were sold recently at .0005 and .0004 levels. This helps to explain why accumulation is at a standstill IMO.
The huge runup was over a week ago. A major breakout did not occur. Rather we saw a sudden reversal and price drop in the past few days.
Most of us don't know if the recent runup was planned or not. It didn't reach higher levels despite being supported by a lot of posts here. The awaited news did not occur.
TCEL issued shares at least in part to pay past bills. It also needs to fund the FDA approval process, which in some particulars is different from prior approvals.
We are still left with some big unknowns: 1) Have any funds from the recent dilution been used for the FDA application process as announced? 2) At what stage is the FDA approval process? 3) How rapidly will it get to a favorable conclusion, if at all?
Best to all longs, Info
Radical "skyscraper" chip design unveiled at IEDM
http://nextbigfuture.com/2014/12/stanford-researchers-are-building.html
Note the discussion comment about photonics / optoelectronics by The Power.
microchips,
Terry H. and I hold its shares. A while ago we exchanged thoughts on the ADXS MB comparing it with LWLG. Our expectations differ. Right now ADXS is in breakout mode. LWLG has done so in the part. Both are nearing the commercial arena, but not yet there IMO.
Still holding and hoping for their respective disruptive technologies to move from great ideas and promising tests to breakthrough products.
Best, Info
Spider silk in the production mix of textile materials will certainly boost the PPS of KBLB.
Currently I'm not holding shares, but find the technology worth following on this board. You and others continually keep helpful information and lively dialog flowing here.
Back to lurking.
Niobium compounds lighten and strengthen steel for many uses. I'm not sure if there's any overlap or synergies with carbon fibers and spider silk.
"Niobium enables significant cost benefits in construction and machinery manufacture
$9 of Nb added to a car will reduces the weight by 100kg
–
Increases fuel efficiency
–
Decreases greenhouse gases • 0.025%
Nb was used in the Oresund bridge with a 60% weight saving in steel and concrete
-
Nb used in piping to strengthen and lighten"
http://www.cradleresources.com.au/_content/documents/CXX%20-%20NIOBIUM%20-%20THE%20NEW%20AGE%20STEEL%20ALLOY%5B1%5D.pdf
Very interesting synergy. Thanks for spotting another material science advance.
Research on graphene posits body armor among its possible uses. Another competitor in the mix for numerous products.
https://genesisnanotech.wordpress.com/2014/12/03/microbullet-hits-confirm-graphenes-strength-possible-uses-include-body-armor-and-spacecraft-protection/
Thanks to andy and wishful for posting a helpful summary and link about the RS.
As CTSO becomes a Delaware corporation and trades on a national exchange with a share price over $5.00, we should all benefit from growing credibility and institutional buying.
It's evident that Alstom-GE has a huge footprint in the power generation business.
From gas to wind, our customers can choose from a portfolio of products covering all fuel types, the broadest in the industry.
In design, manufacture, procurement, construction and servicing, we have been setting the benchmark in clean, efficient, flexible and integrated power generation solutions for over a century.
Our constant quest for innovation has enabled us to achieve a number of global power generation milestones:
Constructing the largest commercial-scale geothermal plant in the world, totaling 191MW in Wairakei, New Zealand - now in continuous operation for over 50 years
Providing key equipment for the world’s two largest hydro-power plants: 14,000MW Itaipu in Brazil and 18,200MW Three Gorges dam in China
Delivering 69x3MW ECO 100 and 6x1.67MW ECO 74 wind turbines totaling 217MW for Europe’s largest onshore wind farm, Whitelee in Scotland
Producing the power island for the most efficient steam power plant in Europe, the 910MW RDK8 coal-fired power plant in Karlsruhe, Germany
Supplying the steam turbine island and the first wet flue gas desulphurisation system in South Africa, able to remove more than 90% of the sulphur oxide generated at Kusile (4,794MW) - the most environmentally-friendly steam power plant on the sub-Saharan continent
Powering Southeast Asia’s first 1,000MW supercritical steam power plant at Manjung, Malaysia - in addition to the existing three units of 700MW each
Installing the world’s first facility to both capture and store carbon dioxide (CO2) from a coal-fired power plant at the American Electric Power station Mountaineer, in West Virginia
Supplying equipment for the world’s largest co-fired biomass plant, the UK’s 4,000MW Drax station
Completing the largest water and power project in the Middle East with the 1,650MW Fujairah power plant in the United Arab Emirates
Delivering the most efficient fossil-fired power station in Australia, the gas-powered Tallawarra at 435MW
Building the world’s largest nuclear steam turbine in operation at the 1,550MW Chooz and Civaux power plants in France
Engineering and procuring the steam turbine island for China’s first European Pressurised Reactor (EPR) for nuclear power plant Taishan 1& 2, totaling 3,500MW
Mantra is dipping its toe into a mighty big power pool. Hope it can make a difference. Along with Alstom-GE we shall be waiting for a new benchmark.
A charting guy (ClayTrader ?) commented in early afternoon yesterday that the volume was very low (under 1 million at that time). It closed with about 1.4 mil. But trading volume has been very high is the past few weeks, so under 1 mil. is no worry.
I initiated a small position at 0.1999 yesterday. If the shares hold at or above the 50 day MA, the PPS is likely to rise again soon. If not, I'll wait for LT gains. IMO the stock has a great future.
I'm a lot like you and tdtcal, but without the science/engineering expertise.
I do notice that the 50 day MA has crossed down below the 200 day MA on the daily chart. Nearby support does not look strong. So I wait, keeping my powder dry.
The SVFC story needs a truth teller. EOM