Market-based numbers for the past three weeks give some perspective on the recent surge.
On Monday. June 6 the high and close prices topped 50 cents (.50) for the first time in many months. Since then AVXL has closed between .46 (46 cents) and .49 three times, from .50 to .53 nine times, and above .50 the last three days -- .64, .65, and .76 respectively. For 12 days a continuation of the upward trend within the rising channel, and then a dramatic price breakout.
This time also showed a corresponding surge in the volume traded. For the past 15 market days trades totaled 61,507,800 shares. Over 31 million shares traded the past three days. In these three weeks a large percentage of the outstanding shares -- 79.63% of 77,243.580 shares -- and the float -- 90.45% of 68 million shares were traded. The daily average was over 4.1 million shares.
Current records show that the float is 88.03% of the outstanding shares. Currently insiders hold 24.33% while institutions hold a mere 0.70%. Short interest as of June 30 is 4,814,791.
So far this is a retail traders game. There are no major analysts or brokerage house recommendations -- not yet. Company releases, market data, SEC filings, and some third party interviews and reports furnish individuals with most of the tangible data.
None of that data shows the relative mix of buy and hold investors, short term traders, and day traders or scalpers. Of course MB posters furnish some anecdotal tidbits, but it's mostly guesswork.
My take on the above data for this recent volatile period: most of the buyers since the bottom in the .16 to .25 range have sold some shares. They could have sold less that half of their holdings and still have the rest at zero or very low basis. It's a low risk opportunity that developed very quickly. I'd guess many buyers in the .26 to .45 range used the breakout of the past three days to sell as well. They had the rare opportunity to sell about half their shares in a very liquid market and still retain the balance with little or no basis cost -- all within a couple of weeks. Of course some buy and hold, continue to accumulate, recoup (paper) losses, and various other trading tactics play their part. Maybe some insiders parted with shares. Form 4 filings will let us know.
We've seen very large trading volume, and perhaps turnover in ownership as well, in this month, and it's not over yet. On the charts technical indicators are at overbought levels, but positive news could send prices and volumes to even greater extremes. Absent news, there could be a period of consolidation or even a drop in price due to more profit-taking.
It's really hard to know what present value is because of continuing clinical trials, possible financing or partnership deals, or the effect of so many new investors becoming aware of AVXL. The potential is great, but it could get delayed or derailed in many ways.
Bottom line: consolidating market numbers is easier than knowing what to do about them. Normally I hesitate to chase soaring stocks, but this one may be on an even bigger run. It that all I can say? For now, yes.
