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There should be little doubt about who will get key positions when 80% of the stock will be in Core Optics' hands. Perhaps they will want to retain certain people, but that will be their decision.
Gary
I certainly don't know, but I'd suspect that this agreement was put together over a period of time, management didn't solicit it, but rather it was presented to them, and they couldn't pass it up. This is something my old broker told me about most similar deals IMGN made. Even though the company knows good news is coming, when presented with serious cash in exchange for stock, along with the ability to put those shares in
strong hands, a company is more likely to go for such a deal than turn it down.
Gary
I may not agree with the sort of new funding we got today, but I've seen it so many times that I don't object. Essentially the company is taking care of their immediate cash needs while hopefully putting the shares in the hands of strong shareholders.
I'll be voting positive, but I doubt if they'll need my vote, in fact I doubt if we could stop any issue they could bring to a vote, but they'd like to have as close to unanimous approval as possible. If approval comes before the annual meeting I think they'll nearly achieve it.
IMGN was who I was most familiar with. I can't say how many times investors were confident that good things were coming, and they did, but the company raised substantial funds just before major share price growth. I understand it's getting shares into the hands of investors they believe will benefit the company, but I wish we all were able to buy at such discounts.
Gary
There are many longs here, myself included, who'll be much richer with an approval. The question is you, and many like you, will you be richer with a failure, IE are you truly short the stock, or are you simply paid for bashing and right or wrong will just move on to another company and continued to be paid for expressing whatever position you're being paid to represent. Of course it will be easy for you to change names.
Who knows, you could already be using another name in which you're pumping the stock in one name, and bashing it in another. The point is, you may have zero convictions, just paid for what you do and you're pretty good at it.
Gary
It seem to me that posters here can be divided into four specific groups here. Two of the four are investors, some are long, others short, but they're actually invested. The other two, are pumpers or bashers who have no interest in the stock, but are being paid to do what they do, pump or bash the stock.
I've never been much of a believer that either companies or others are paying for people to pump up a stock who aren't investors, but I can't deny it's possible. I believe that far more are being paid to bash the stock, potentially for a variety of reasons.
Those who're investors, long or short, have skin in the game, and they can be in, or out as they choose. Those who pump or bash are doing what they're paid to do, they really have no convictions behind what they're saying. At the flip of a switch bashers can become pumpers if those paying them tell them to. I'll give them credit for finding ways of bringing up issues that challenge longs to answer, but if they're told to pump, rather than bash, they'll be equally quick to find good reason for the stock to fly.
I'm sure we have some who cross over and are bashers, but actually have short positions themselves, or pumpers who're also long. We may even have the extremes of a basher who's using the money paid for bashing to be long the stock, and vice versa. Thing is, these people can turn on a dime.
In many ways these people are like experts witnesses for trials, tell them what side they're to testify for and they'll happily take the money for testifying on any side of an issue.
I honestly can't say who's paying all these people, but certainly suspect that at least some of those we're suing may be supporting the bashers. I don't believe the company directly pays pumpers, but anything is possible. It's certain that the company can pay to make appearances at places like the Big Biz show, or BIO conferences, but I don't think they're paying directly for pumpers.
Gary
I believe that market cap, not share price, is what must be looked at and while filing for approval is a major event, it rarely takes market cap over a couple billion for a company with no prior approved products. After approval it may move up some, but not as much as people believe until a revenue stream is established, then the stock price will move with revenue, and anticipated revenue.
Of course much will include applying for approval elsewhere, and anticipation of that occurring, but it's rare for a company to move from a fraction of a billion to double digit billion dollar market caps without revenue that justifies those market caps.
There is no doubt in my mind that in time double and triple digit billion market caps are possible, even probable in time, but only when multi-billion dollar revenue is achieved.
Gary
I believe that anyone who's ever followed a product through the approval process knows that the regulators try to meet their goals, but we all know that they can do anything they wish. I believe the UK will be on time, or even early, so I think we'll know their decision in the next couple weeks, but there are no guarantees.
In the past I've see regulators delay approval of what clearly were blockbuster products by years when they insisted on information that had never been a part of the trial and require new trials. On every occasion the product was ultimately approved, and I was right about it's blockbuster potential. They certainly can do it to essentially any product, but hopefully they won't.
Gary
I wonder if others are experiencing the same thing I am on quotes from CNBC. I often find that the share price remains constant until I go to a different list and back. It's not always that way, but often seems to only change when I do that.
I'm not big about watching CNBC, but do like the app and all the news available there, but I have my doubts about their quotes, though ultimately they do get it right. Do others have better sites to suggest on their phones.
Gary
I think your brokerage will supply you with a link to the proxy and then to the voter ballot. I'm with Fidelity and I know they handle it that way, I believe the others do as well.
Gary
I see the formal proxy is out and a headline here on I-H. I believe this reinforces their expectations by the end of the month, let's hope they're right.
Gary
You may be right, but it's also possible that the company's presence in the US will spur sales here and greatly grow the share price. Let's get the merger completed and hopefully give it a little time before any such action is taken, perhaps it won't be necessary.
Gary
In just three weeks we'll learn whether 150 days began with initial validation, if not, some may say it's not till full validation, which also came essentially at the point where RFI's would have been requested, but weren't.
I believe the Annual Meeting was scheduled with some confidence that they'd have approval prior to it. If not, I'm really not certain they couldn't reschedule it.
Gary
I believe that it's clear that NWBO isn't about to initiate new trials, drug development, etc. until such time as the stock price is dramatically higher, IE until after they at least have their initial approval. I'd not be at all surprised after that approval if new relationships were announced where trials were being co-sponsored by NWBO and others, perhaps beyond Keytruda and Poly-ICLC, as others look to prove their products equally effective when combined with DCVax-L.
I suspect that others will pay a substantial part of the trials, but NWBO will have costs, if only to support the costs of making the vaccine for the trials, so they participate in the trial.
Gary
It's really quiet tonight, could it be the calm before the storm. Time will tell.
I look forward to what tomorrow may bring.
Gary
In reality I believe that most of the world believe that CEO's as a group, and especially American CEO's are greatly overpaid, but nothing will change as long as they're able to primarily build their BOD's with CEO's and other executives from other companies whose pay is being set by similar BOD's. In the case of LP, she was very wealthy before she was associated with NWBO, but of course with success, she'll be far wealthier, but then again, so will we.
I frankly can't get that mad about CEO's becoming richer in building companies, it bothers me that hedge fund managers, etc. who work to tear down companies have often made far more than those who're building them.
If it were up to me, shorting, etc. wouldn't be legal, investment would be investing to build companies, but it's not up to me. My old stock broker felt much the same, but simply once told me if we made such actions illegal here in the US, all that business would just go elsewhere where he assured me it would be legal. We simply allow such action rather than losing the business that would be lost if we didn't. Some hedge fund managers who helped bring down major companies in 2008 made multi-billion dollar bonuses because their funds made so much for fund investors, and that's how their bonuses were established.
Gary
As I see it we're now inside of 20 days from the 150 day review period, if initiated on initial validation. That makes it nervous time as the authorities could easily make a decision a few days, or weeks, before their 150 day target. While the share price and trading may not indicate news coming shortly, I really don't think that either the company or UK authorities are willing to provide a tell for what's happening. This could very well be an occasion where there is no detectable warning of news coming.
I believe if The Street generally believed approval in 20 days or less our share price would already be substantially higher, so it's simple to say The Street, and I'm not speaking of AdamF, I'm saying Wall Street is really in the dark about what's happening here. The short squeeze that should result from positive news will truly be a thing of beauty to NWBO longs.
Gary
If the estimate of $100 million in earnings by Core Optics is anywhere close to correct, a P/E of just 10 would give us a $1 billion market cap. With existing shares being 20% of the post merger shares, our share count would go to about 1.3 billion shares immediately, or roughly a $.75 share price. Of course this is giving no value to our battery technology and not anticipating guidance on future growth. The likelihood is our P/E should be more like 20 to 30 giving us a share price in the $1.50 to $2.25 range, or higher if added value is seen in battery operations.
If all this is true, the company potentially could grow to meet Nasdaq requirements, and do so rapidly if their technology was embraced by the US market on moving here, but if this were not the choice, a R/S as small as 1 for 2, 3, or 4 would be adequate, or more than adequate, to bring the share price in excess of Nasdaq requirements.
Gary
If G-D didn't intend man to be able to develop ways to combat diseases we'd probably all have an average life span of perhaps 40 years. Our vaccine is certainly closer to what G-D had in mind than most of the chemo's in use today. I'd certainly have died quite a while ago if not for what man has created to fight leukemia. CAR-T certainly has far greater risk than DCVax-L yet it may cure one cancer, giving the recipient years of life, while in time giving them another.
I prefer George Burn's interpretation of G-D in "Oh G-D", I'm not perfect, look at the avocado, I made the pit entirely too large.
As for the criticism of the Covid vaccines, they almost certainly did far more good than bad, many more would have died without them. Covid is becoming an endemic, it will mutate in much the same way flu does and new vaccines will be required frequently, a few will have bad reactions, but far more will either not get it, or have mild cases when they do. I suspect that it won't be long till a single shot will cover flu and Covid annually.
Frankly I wish our regulators could treat cancer, and other diseases, like they did Covid 19, IE when a promising treatment is well into trials, issue an EUA allowing it's use, and insurance reimbursement, until it's approved or determined not to be as effective as other products and forced off the market. In the case of DCVax-L I suspect an EUA could have been considered nearly a decade ago. If all patients receiving a product under an EUA were tracked, I suspect an approval could come far sooner with a review of the data from thousands, rather than an application that's over a million pages long.
Gary
Reading the many posts here I frankly have no idea where we'll be after the merger is complete. I'd be surprised if it came Monday, or next week for that matter. If there was a logical time to make this happen it would be July 1st, the start of the third quarter, but I don't know that it would be the case.
I know at one point uplisting to a major exchange sounded like a not that distant goal. If as some suspect a share price in excess of $1 is possible, without a reverse split, that could be possible without it if new contracts are revealed shortly after the merger is completed. If we're not near $1 after the merger, if a small reverse split is deemed necessary, that wouldn't be the end of the world, I just hope a massive R/S isn't demanded.
I recently acquired the Lexus RZ, it has older battery technology, but an amazing discount and very luxurious, in that it will primarily be used within 50 miles of home, it should service us very well, and very comfortably. I look forward to the day when 600 or more mile range and 20 minute full charging is available, but personally I wouldn't need it very often. Lexus allows me 30 days in vehicles of my choice in the next 3 years, that will probably meet all my needs.
Gary
I wish I could agree, but allowing an aircraft to be built with the option of adding a second stall indicator resulted in two crashes of the Max, to me safety equipment should never have been an option. Then forgetting 4 bolts in the plug that popped out of their plane doesn't inspire confidence.
I've heard it said that Boeing had always been very safety oriented until the merger with McDonald's. After that the priority was more profit driven and it seems to show. Don't get me wrong, I have no qualms flying in a Boeing aircraft, and will probably be doing so in just under 2 weeks from today, but the minor glitches that have recently occurred have all been in Boeing aircraft, certainly many of them were probably a lack of proper maintenance by others, not Boeing, but lately they've been snake-bit. No crashing, but problems in many of their airliners.
I've heard that when Space Ex launches a few people control everything from a few laptops, I don't know this is true, and especially if it's true when men are being launched, but I suspect the failure in the ground based equipment that delayed this mornings launch may be antiquated computers that date back to when Atlas was our first ICBM. I don't know this to be the case, but I had heard that the systems in our ICBM silos as of a few hears ago at least used the floppy disks I can remember from at least 40 years ago. The Federal Govt. is terrible when it comes to replacing antiquate computer equipment and in fact at one time in the shuttle program they had to put out a special contract to make 8086 or 8088 processors, because they were in the shuttle, eventually they upgraded, but it's a shame that it's like pulling teeth to get equipment that makes for work to be easier, and safer.
They've been talking about upgrading air flight controllers, but I gather much of the equipment they're using is still antiquated, and we keep getting stories of near collisions on runways, or in the sky. I don't agree with all the Musk says, but I'll bet if he were running air and ground control the workers would be on new equipment and far more would be automated. I suspect that many airports could handle greater traffic because better tracking would permit shortening the time between take-offs and landings. I know that this has been discussed many times, but I don't think that much progress has occurred. In part this may be due to the fact that contracts take so long that by the time their done, the equipment is already obsolete, so they begin again.
The bureaucracy in Govt. is tremendous. We have a friend who's daughter's home foundation collapsed because of a sliding hillside over a year ago, they've still not been able to get the permit needed to demolish the structure so that it will be possible to consider what must be done to properly rebuild a home. Construction here in CA often takes over a year to permit. What should take minutes takes months.
Gary
Senti, I think that they would have a large price up front for making the vaccine, then smaller prices for each time it's administered.
Gary
This morning I was watching what was supposed to be the first launch of the manned Boeing spacecraft, it was the first time I've seen the spacecraft up close. When compared with Space Ex's Dragon capsule it looked more like something made with spare parts from the B-52 that are over half a century old than the modern look of the Dragon with it's computerized controls. Once again the launch was scrubbed.
This reminds me of a comparison of our vaccine, made from the tumor and white blood cells, and those vaccines made with a few things that the makers are hoping will be common to most cancers they're treating. Which would you rather have, something that targets some of what may be in your cancer, or something that targets everything in your cancer.
I know you can mass produce the vaccine not made from the cancer, that may be cheaper, but like the Boeing effort, it's antiquated by comparison, and more expensive if not as effective in human lives. Furthermore, the Boeing unit is launched by a modified Atlas, which has been around nearly as long as the B-52 and is wasted, whereas the Space Ex launch vehicle lands and is reused. In the long run it's far cheaper to reuse the first stage, but that's not possible with the Atlas.
I know that Boeing is only responsible for the space capsule, but it's a sad commentary that a veteran company, like Boeing, received a contract at the same time Space Ex did and haven't yet launched one astronaut with largely existing equipment while Space Ex has been launching men into space for 4 years and reusing much of what's sent into space. mRNA technology may be great for solving a major problem like Covid19, but if I had a cancer, I'd sure prefer something made from my cancer than something that's statistically found in many similar cancers.
Gary
Ex, I think we all know that regulatory approval is never guaranteed, but I believe that we have better than 90% chance given the UK experience with the vaccine in compassionate use in addition to all the trial data.
Gary
I think that we all need to remember that the MAA was done for manual commercial production, but we have that approval. Sawston is being used to approve the EDEN as well, but that won't hold up approval for the vaccine.
I suspect that LG's comment on fall has more to do with the EDEN and approaching the other regulators than initial approval in the UK, which they said was not being delayed by RFI.
Gary
No RFI, no 60 day delay. Decision by June 21st.
Gary
ASCO has often influenced the biotechnology sector, but not always positively. More than once, they've been called ASCO fiASCO's.
Let's hope that this is one of the best years.
Gary
Frankly this year I have no idea what ASCO will bring. There have been many years when biotech's in general got a boost out of what was presented at ASCO. Their have been others where ASCO was called a fiASCO, companies we though would flourish after ASCO floundered, and generally biotech's were down.
I don't believe that ASCO will harm us at all this year, we're so low I just don't think we'll go much lower with a decision from the UK due any day. Could it spur our price, sure, anything is possible. Most attendees are Drs. in the industry, not necessarily big investors, but some investors no doubt do attend.
I don't know who'll be in our booth, or just how much they can say, but perhaps someone will fill us in before it's over. I cannot say I've kept up with what other companies I'm not invested in may be presenting. I'm sure we'll hear of some highlights of the conference. The question is whether ASCO sends biotech's in general up, or down as we head into Summer and what generally are considered the Summer Doldrums'.
I don't believe we'll be in the Summer Doldrums' as we'll have news coming from the UK, and I believe after that the company will be announcing much more over time. Of course that's based on positive news from the UK.
I'm frankly in the process of selling roughly $2.4 million worth of property in Tahoe, but purchasing somewhat more than that on California's Northern Coast, and in New York. If possible I'd like to avoid new mortgages and I'm hoping that NWBO plays a part in making that happen. If not, the mortgages won't represent over 20% of the cost of the property, but my only reason for wanting mortgages is the simplicity of having the taxes and insurance impounded.
Gary
You're certainly right, but for volume exceeding anything we've ever had before, just add news. I suspect that even a well founded rumor that the British are about to act would send volume through the roof. By well founded I'm suggesting it came from a highly regarded British source.
Gary
If anyone is attending ASCO it's my belief that the company is not making either technical or Expert Theater presentation, so what it will be doing, it will be doing from its booth, which is one of the larger ones. If you're attending I believe all of us would appreciate some photo's of the booth and information on what they're saying and handing out there. I'd have to guess that they'd have reprints of Nature and the Jama Journal articles, but wonder what else they may have. The last booth I remember seeing photographed highlighted the vaccine being tumor agnostic, I wonder if this is still the case.
Anyway, if you're there I think we'd all appreciate anything we can learn about it.
Gary
I think you meant 2023.
Gary
Perhaps $36 billion in earnings is a better number. With a P-E of just ten, we'd have a market cap of $360 billion, and our P-E ought to be much higher than that.
Gary
Unusual close today. I happened to look at my quotes a minute before the closing bell and we were up something like $.0077. I put it away as I was having lunch with friends. When I checked my phone sometime later I was pleasantly surprised to see we closed up nearly a penny from what I'd seen. It's been rather common for the MM's to bring us down on the last trade of the day, it was nice to see the trend reversed today, I hope we can keep that up.
Gary
UCLA has run more than one trial, is it possible the video is tracking a different trial than the one you're quoting.
It's know that UCLA is achieving survival of over 5 years when combining Poly-ICLC in some of its trials. Results may be confusing because all that they're doing there hasn't been well documented yet. I expect that in the future it will be.
Gary
In our case I believe it would be the same drug, but with different types of cancer. I do think that it would be designated a platform technology.
Gary
That's true, but if we were just over $3 with that percentage, then we could see over $20. Not saying it will happen, I really don't it to, but just looking at possibilities.
Gary
Interesting post on prices paid in recent buyouts.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=174499503
Gary
I believe it's far better for NWBO to take all the time needed to do things properly rather than doing it speedily.
We used to have an expression about upper management where I worked, we always don't get the time to do things properly, we always get the time to do them over. That may work fine where a design can be modified slightly while work is underway, it doesn't work in biotech's, especially in submissions to regulators, trial design, etc.
I believe that NWBO is taking the time necessary to do things properly. The UK on the other hand do have people who'll work to their established deadlines, NWBO has taken their time to get it right, 1.7 million pages of right is impressive, they've had no further information requested, I believe the UK's answer will be yes.
Gary
If the merger were completed June 1st, I believe it's possible to reset their fiscal year to begin that date. Later they could change the date to what's normal. If that's not done, I wouldn't be surprised if they don't complete until July 1st.
Gary
I think this is the calm before the storm. I have been involved with many companies, and none have satisfied investors by coming out primarily to support share price. They wait until they have proper news, and then they release it. If appropriate, they support it with webcasts, appearances at appropriate conferences, etc. NWBO is no different from the others.
At these prices, I added enough shares to not count my kids' shares in having an even 400K.
Gary
Flipper, nearly all investors will have voted on the internet well before the meeting. It's possible to change your vote, but it would be far better to get the information out well before the Annual Meeting.
Frankly, I think LP has sufficient support she can rely on to get a majority vote, but she would like the support to be massive.
Gary