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great post, per usual. America has changed its form of government, from a Republic with democratic voting rights, to a Corporation Oligarchy, referred to commonly as a One World Government...
with a serf population.
what factors go into the consideration? How long should the thought process at this point in time, take? A couple hours? A couple phone calls to the gatekeeper?
It is shocking how many on this message board are believing AA is just around the corner, when the smartest of them by far (Doc238), and who is not a fan boy but rather an astute, dispassionate investor and also a neurologist, says the company has 1 in 50 chance to get approved this way.
can the financial industry reinflate the Bubble?
if big money the brokerage and fund industry watches the charts, and they do, then charts can have an impact on price. They watch the weekly MACD. Positive.
on the weekly, there is a clear double top with MACD in the process of crossing over to the downside, a very bad harbinger for the entire PM sector, both metals and miners. In fact, this is bad for equities as well. Silver tends to lead going up and going down.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
on the weekly, there is a clear double top with MACD in the process of crossing over to the downside, a very bad harbinger for the entire PM sector, both metals and miners. In fact, this is bad for equities as well. https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
and who are the guys selling contracts and leveraged, almost it seems, as if they knew they could start their war, which they have done, or simply inflate, disinflate, buy or sell contracts,
when Jay talks, we strangely are in a vice grip, and when there is an attack on america in some small island, or perhaps a large country, the market always ends higher on the day...
amazing, but and what is clear, is that gold and silver companies are now woefully being undervalued, by the markets, and why is that, because they have PEs and if the market thinks that they can be easily reduced or seen to be dysfunctional, or subject, as usual 'to the EXISTING FINANCIAL REGIME" ...........Then their PEs will go from 27, where historically they have been, to 3 or 5, like the steel companies. They will not be prized by the market; will be seen as government agencies almost.
The late April 2023 conference call. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4597811-united-states-steel-corp-x-q1-2023-earnings-call-transcript
the americans do not care about X, the same way they don't care about anything except getting "free stuff." X has a 5 billion dollar market cap, and in 18 months or so, will have a 50 dollar book value....gimme a break. The stock is a ridiculous steal esp. with Big Bend coming on line, churning out well over 1 billion in free cash flow..............Yup, you are looking at 4.50 earnings at a minimum, per share from this new project alone. ...My view is X will generally make in this new age where steel is a must, at least 10 bucks a share, and with a 6 PE is worth 60.....and this in part because there is no way on god's green earth that China will be permitted to sell underpriced at cost steel in america any longer. Not a chance. even biden and his pack of nutjobs gets this point.
"Stupendendously" GREAT NEWS GREAT NEWS GREAT NEWS GREAT NEWS IS COMING very shortly, JUST LIKE IT HAS IN THE PAST 5 YEARS,
and you are an ingrate not to appreciate ALL THE GREAT NEWS which washes up on AVXL's shore each and every month that is so STUPENDOUSLY GREAT NEWS OVERFLOWING OUR PORTFOLIOS.
each day there is shortly Great News.
each week there is soon to be Great News.
Expect more and more and more GREAT NEWS IN THE COMING WEEKS AND DAYS AND SECONDS.
"Say it don't spray it, the way Jim Jones did with his cool-aide lovers. Keep saying it again and again and again.
You will have "great news" jammed down your throats and your portfolios will overflow with money and dollars and more money than you can hardly imagine. GREAT NEWS IS COMING. SAY IT ALL OF US.
@God Bless you all.
So Chant it, post it, Chant it again, and post it for newbies. "Chant it, post it, Chant it again."
Your core concept that precious metals are a haven of safety when financial markets go down, and that this is a lie promulgated by the Metal Porn Fear Spreaders, is dead on accurate. They go down faster than the rest of financial assets. In this regard the PMs behave more like antique cars, or paintings, or luxury items, which have massive swings in bad times. At least initially this is how they behave, wiping out their owners.
There are so many ideas and concepts in this post, I will try to get to them over time but one idea is that Fear Spreaders exist as an independent business, and they are themselves businessmen in this boutique industry, and this is true. These guys understand that there are billions of dollars laying on the floor, and all they do is have to write COLLAPSE books, etc to pick up that money. The little old ladies and men buy books that all promote the word, "COLLAPSE."
THE COLLAPSE OF THIS, THE COMING COLLAPSE, THE COLLAPSE OF THE AMERICAN FINANCIAL SYSTEM.........and the unfortunate and increasingly bankrupt americans will buy their publications. A no brainer.
Here is a question for you: What if the S and P slides down now to 3,200 in the next 12 months, which is entirely possible? How do the Banks, who you say are near absolute power over financial life and death, how do they profit from this? And then next year the index slides to a never shattering 2800, and stays there for a year or two? We are at nosebleed PE levels now, the likes of which have only been reached 3 times in history. Will the financial industry simply introduce a new set of medic concepts, to replace the old ideas of valuations?
This is an entirely plausible scenario for a lot of obvious reasons. In other words, what if they cannot inflate to keep it up? Such would be ruinous for what is left of the american middle class, and completely vaporize the working class, and make the american poor become third world poor.
How are the banksters and Oligarchs benefitting from this?
(will address many of your superb points a little later.....but kudos to you once again...)
the entire market is going down now. The most written about recession in financial history will start kicking in slowly in the summer and the market will move down big time ahead of it. S and P gonna test the prior lows in the next 3 months.
As a result of the remand decision, and in light of the EPA's Final Determination, the District has been instructed to review the appeal decision and to notify the parties how it plans to proceed in the next 45 days.
The District will tell the Parties they intend to review the Record and provide additional Findings in the next 6 months. The company will wait for 5 months,
150 days, \
and on the last day, another 30 days
the District will issue its Additional Findings.
which will then be appealed by the company in 30 more days.
The Record will then be reprepared and submitted in another 60 days..
The Decision will then issue its findings in 5 more months, 150 days, about the adequacy of the Additional Finds.
The Decision will be found to have been inadequate to support certain of the findings and it will be remanded back with instructions to do a completely new review with new personnel.
The new Personnel will need 4 months
another 120 days, to review the decision,
and will ask the parties to kindly submit memorandums within 60 days.
The New Personnel acting for the referee will then issue his or its amended decision 90 days thereafter, affirming the original order but substantiating the order in a more orderly manner.
The decision will then be appealed by both parties within 30 more days.
It will then result in a decision wherein "As a result of the remand decision, and in light of the EPA's Final Determination, the District has been instructed to review the appeal decision and to notify the parties how it plans to proceed in the next 45 days."
The District will then need 30 days to prepare and file an additional Record of the Transcript.
This then will .....will by special order of the Court, be taken up for a final decision.
In 90 days the Court will remand the case back to the Referree and ask that certain questions be answered in the next 3 months, or 90 days.
The Referee will then issue a decision which will be appealed to the District.....within 30 days.
The District will issue its review decision in 90 days
That decision will be appealed in 30 days.
Briefing of certain issues will be filed in 90 more days.
The District will issue an entirely new decision in 90 more days.
That decision will be appealed in 30 days...
We both know who owns the FED, Treasury and the U.S. banking system, and the u.s. government; the game crew that is largely running this war. The Big 7: Zelensky, Reznikov,Dmytro Kuleba, Kolomarsky and from America the 3 people running it are Victoria Nuland, Merritt Garland and Tony Blinken, who all share one common characteristic and this feature is why zelensky got a Standing ovation from most of Congress, and why he was given the podium at the NYSE one morning to address his people, to essentially order them to open up the money for him in DC.....and the Russians know the answer to this inside and out, and have always known it.
tremendous 100 star post....everything magnificent and true. The West and the people who own it, the banksters....have only one small issue: Russia and China. Which is why I am pro Russia a christian people, as they crush the army of the oligarchs and NATO.
Everything you have written, the Russian government and Putin understand like it is simple child's play..
great thoughts....a totalitarian state owned by its bankers and the elites
this is another big miss: U.S. retail sales rose 0.4% last month following a downwardly revised drop of 0.7% in March, according to the latest data from the U.S. Commerce Department. Market consensus calls expected an increase of 0.8% in April’s headline number.
https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-05-16/U-S-retail-sales-miss-expectations-in-April-gold-price-trades-under-pressure.html
remember, 70 percent of the american economy is retail spending spending spending and shopping till you are dropping.
The one month chart for slv looks bad, and remember, over the several bank defaults, led by the Oligarch's own little w h o r e bank, silicon, the system had a major shock and precious metals zipped up there for 2 months
but now
michael burry the Big Short has reversed his position and has publicly said the banks for the most are in excellent shape.
I see the entire market slowly having the air taken out of it, the whole market, and silver is generally the herald for the whole market which is overvalued by 100 percent, and needs to be cut in half and over time, probably will be.
GREAT NEWS for AVXL within just 10 days!! TEN DAYS IS ALL WE MUST DO TO WAIT FOR MASSIVELY GREAT NEWS. It will come from both within and without. Internally, plus 2 far larger companies externally impacting Anavex with SEPARATE NEWS RELEASES!\
The News *(s) will be synchronistic for current shareholders.
There will also be released at least 1 video that will be especially GREAT NEWS which will support the other great news!
The FEDS most recent recession prediction the article also wrote was the highest by a wide measure in its history. By a very wide percentage the worst.
don't know how long their indicator has been used, or has been modified or the FEDs attitude now as opposed to back then, whenever that was, about the desirability of a recession, etc..
great links thanks a bunch, highly useful and thoughtful and even probative
good post. Looking accurate. I sold out from my two positions substanitally yesterday, gdx and slv (and sivr)....and sold the balance earlier premarket when silver jumped up there nicely for ten minutes in the pre market. It had been down at one point over 30 cents and then ran up premarket to where it was only down 4 cents before once again going back down.....blah blah
Your one point is well taken; it explodes as being completely false that the precious metals and their miners are an island of protection in bad times. The experience of the two severe recessions, 2001 and 2008 (and the fake covid mini recession) prove that gold and silver get squashed at least for the first half of any recession. They too get taken to the cleaners. Don't recall or have seen data on the 1970s, but gold stocks and silver were crushed for several years during the great Depression, I think about 3, as everything collapsed.........and people went to the dollar as "safe haven" or for whatever reason (your concept of who is actually in control of basically the entire universe."_?_....
So the question is, are we going into a recession, how severe, how long will it last?
I see now there is a Fed indicator that just recently said they or one of their "conf boards" said a recession today is around 69 percent probable, over the next year, something like that. How accurate are the FEDS own predictions? does the Fed and its predictors have any skin in the game? Does the FED today have a position on hoping they can dump the country into a recession to kill the inflation, blah blah
I think one can say, it is not a good idea to fight the fed, the country is in a disaster shape, and the data that says things are getting worse, is more probable than the other data that suggests things are not getting worse.
So for now, with the FED draining money from the system in support of its goals the best thing is to either short or buy treasuries I suppose?
Ignore the Editor's inserted headline. He did not put that headline there about a short squeeze. A good article by Phil Streible article where he concludes at the end that it looks like Silver has now posted a dreaded double top. It is a good article where he identifies the 3 factors in the last week which caused the decline in PMs (where gold he says is still holding up), and where silver in particular got hit hard and had the second worst day so far this year. (it may have even been the worst). ...
so my take is that the FED has now stated, and this female board governor is considered Jay Powell's proxy and spokeswoman, their thinking considered to be identical, that it is gonna raise rates at least one more time. Lurking between now and year end is the dreaded Recession which would really hammer precious metals. Streible comments that in what he is suggesting is now gonna be a pullback, it is a good time "to build positions" in PMs. He has a limitless belief that the FED can manipulate the economy basically over time, and that it is in comfortable control of everything and if it wants to create a recession which is moderate in nature, that it can do so.
BOTTOM LINE IS HE SAYS LAST WEEK SHOWS THE FORMATION IN SILVER OF A DOUBLE TOP. THAT IS WHAT HE SAID TOWARDS THE END.
________________
Contributed Commentaries
Gold/Silver: It's time to position for another 'Silver Squeeze'
Phillip Streible
Friday May 12, 2023 12:54
Kitco Commentaries | Opinions, Ideas and Markets Talk
Commentaries & Views
Precious Metals edged lower this week, sparked by liquidation in the Copper market on Wednesday fueled by weaker Chinese new bank loan data. The data came in 50% lower than most analysts predicted, indicating that the recovery in China is much slower than planned. We also heard comments from the Fed stating that inflation remains stubbornly above their targets even though recently it has been coming down. Additionally, news that the administration has failed to reach a deal on the debt ceiling ahead of the deadline has investors nervous about a default. The "knee-jerk" reaction in Gold and Silver gives us an excellent opportunity to build positions for a year-end rally.
Daily Gold Chart
The technical backdrop in Gold is much stronger than Silver, with prices holding above the psychological $2000 level and critical support down at $1985. A break below $1974 will begin signaling a near-term failure, and our proprietary level shifting trend traders to the sidelines. At that point, we will want to use call options to maintain upside exposure. Ultimately, we must see Gold close above $2028.4 at a minimum to help negate this week's negative activity.
To further help you develop a trading plan, I went back through 20 years of my trading strategies to create a Free New "5-Step Technical Analysis Guide to Gold that can easily apply to Silver." The guide will provide you with all the Technical analysis steps to create an actionable plan used as a foundation for entering and exiting the market. You can request yours here: 5-Step Technical Analysis Guide to Gold.
Daily Silver Chart
Silver faces tremendous overhead damage and will only negate this week's selloff once a close above the 24.71-24.95 area. Thursday's selloff posted Silver's worst session since February 3rd, where strong employment data reaffirmed the Fed's hawkish stance. On a short-term basis, the technical backdrop shows a "double-top" on the chart. The eight-day exponential moving average (EMA) is set to cross the thirty-four-day (EMA)to the downside, which could result in additional pressure from active short-sellers. The near-term bearish forces will drive prices down to the 50% retracement giving us another excellent opportunity to add to core positions using the December 1000 oz Silver contract. Fundamentally, there is tightness in the physical markets, and mining supply is beginning to decline. We expect that over the next year, demand from solar, electric vehicles, and other technological advances will create the next "Silver-Squeeze," extending prices back to contract highs.
it is a complex system but the wind at the back of "the shorts" or the wall street players is economic data and if not evidence, a constructed story that a recession is on the way, and will be here later this year. If that is so, the major averages and stocks in general will start to wilt many months before the recession occurs, perhaps as much as 6 months. ergo, if the recession is deemed to have arrived by Oct 15, then stocks might start going down 5 to 6 months before then.....at least this is the way it has worked in the past........and in recessions, gold and silver in particular, always get crushed in the early stages. The FED has said they want to inflict pain, to stop the inflation, and that they are in so many words, in favor of a recession, and they know that in the past this has meant wilting stock price.....so the shorts and bullion players have this huge wind at their backs. Last week a fed governor said the fed would not be easing soon, but instead might be continuing to raise, and she is considered to be most alligned with Jay Powell, and Fed Watchers all know this. So the FED ease story took a major hit....
and that's all with the news for now...
Thank You FBAG! (a better aphorism than dbag).....so i am thinking, the 1 otherwise elevated markets which has the S and P up almost to 4200, 2. the announcement two days ago that the trial is now enrolled, and 3. this thing you relate, where the market views the denial as a major negative evidently (it is not).
we are living a lie as americans. A disaster people. foolish, stupid and spoiled the likes of which the world has never seen. fickle and childlike. And with nuclear weapons. There was a star trek episode like this, where children had powers beyond those of the Enterprise.
60 percent that we hyper inflate, 35 percent that we go into a never ending recession, 5 percent that america navigates its bankruptcy from within and without, somehow....1 in 20
I see now it was a sell the news thing.
what's goin on with SAVA, down 10 %. Was this simply a case of the craziness of micro biotechs going nutty in one direction, and then in the other? Like the kid's game, musical chairs.........
great article on Chinese copper demand, which is bad. This bodes ominous for the entire WEST copper and construction industries. The u.s. housing ETF looks to be topping out.
so we shall see. maybe the much awaited recession is finally here. we shall see.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3970046-copper-slumps-to-lowest-since-january-on-chinas-weak-economic-recovery
Let us go then, you and I,
When the evening is spread out against the sky
Like an anavex Long etherized upon a table;
Let us go, through certain half-deserted streets,
The muttering retreats
Of restless nights in one-night cheap hotels
And sawdust restaurants with oyster-shells:
Endless message board points and counterpoints
that follow
year after year after year after year
like a tedious argument
Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow,
Creeps in this petty pace from day to day
To the last syllable of AVXL's management timelines,
And all our yesterdays have lighted sad longs
The way to dusty death. Out, out, brief candle!
Investing here but a walking shadow, a poor player
That struts and frets his hour upon the stage
who enhances the drama with each fresh conference call
And then is heard no more: it is a time consuming
message board posting tale
Told by a desperate idiot, full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing.
Which ends with accusations flying far and fast
among the retail losing ass
Nonsense and counter Nonsense!
Tales told by idiots
signifying nothing.
As flies to wanton boys are we to the gods; They kill us for their sport.
Love it!....The Oracle. I like that name. Reminds me of The Oracle in the Matrix.
if gold (on kitco) closes down 10 bucks or less today, which is possible (* not saying it will but at lesat at this moment that seems in play.)..., I think this retracement will have very short legs. A year ago, gold would close down 30 bucks on the day the financial regime releases its rally killing press release telling the sleepy americans that everything is all right, there is no inflation, and certainly there will be no killer inflation in the future, so they can go about their business as usual. Everything is fine, go back to sleep, ignore prices in the food stores; "ignore your personal finances. Your obvious poverty is only temporary. Whatever you do, please don't worry about anything. We are in control. We are here to help you."
For them not to close gold down 15 to 16 bucks at a minimum !!!, is a disgrace!!
The pattern I describe above, btw will repeat itself in various ways 2 or 3 or even 4 times per year, triggered by a centerpiece Press Release by the Central government workers, the FED, Treasury or one of their bureaucratic central government agencies, like Labor dept. The Press Release in question will champion the financial regime itself, the effectiveness of its current leadership and strategies and showing that things are basically fine, all according to plan, and the release will be promoted by the media of the financial regime and wall street. In between these cycles, there will be a torrent of worrisome other data, and rigged data......which if you can read between the lines, tells a completely different and truthful story. A lot of the more important worrisome data and rigged data you will be able to get with your own eyes and ears, in your everyday lives, which the Existing Financial Regime, continually asks and beseechs you to ignore
The same old cycle being played in the PM sector, but now we see that it has less ammo
1. the miners soar for 2 or 3 or 4 months, so too the metals. Nothing dramatic, like a man walking up a very long hill.
2. the financial regime puts out a PR from the FED or an agency saying that things are just chummy, and that everything is fine. There is almost no inflation. Do not believe your eyes and ears, just trust us.
3. Short read the anticipated PR from the Regime, and jump in and short the miners like crazy.
4. Miners go down as Retail reads the same PR and abandon ship.
5. Next step is that the shorts then move their bets and short the metals, Paper metals, gld and slv...and so too, retail then abandons these two vehicles....
and so gld and slv also go down.
So while when the miners and metals go up, they trudge up a hill, but for various reasons, especially retail's use of margin, when the attack comes, it is more like a fireman coming down a fireman's pole. It is sudden and it is steep.
BUT BUT BUT, THEN THEN THEN
we see that this pattern of trading seems to have less firepower.
In a bear market is returns the players back to zero, but in a PM bull, the pullbacks are not steep, nor are they long, and the recoveries take far less time, and we never go back to zero, instead, there is a stairstep pattern over any longer period of time which is up, not down. .
and this is the way this should play out of the next 3 years at least.
One of the "gimme's" of this trading cycle is that investors and retail in particular will get very long just before the attack comes, using margin........and margin is what accounts for the effectiveness of the attack, but over time, people wise up, and don't go so crazy with the margin, and consequently don't get so wiped out as the bull gains strength. .
so they get stronger, and the attacks weaken and do not last very long, and the bull wipes out the plotters as it gets stronger, and as the commercial shorts and The Regime, loses its effectiveness and more importantly, its credibility.
as usual, the Fed issues or permits a news release saying that inflation is under control. LOLOLOLCNNLOLCNN......the NY Shorts and wall street shorts pile in, while Retail flees...so this is the game. It has been played for the past couple years, but in the meantime, gold keeps rising....so this game is increasingly less profitable as the Bull gets stronger.
The miners are making pretty decent money with gold at 2,020, but things start getting fun as we approach 2500 POG which may be here at this time next year. The market will start to price this out.
Gonna be a great next 3 years. The public is not here but they will come crashing in by this time next year at far higher prices. I am locked and loaded. It feels good to be the House. The Fed is trapped. Inflate or this gigantic Ponzi of the dollar and all its denominated assets collapses. Powell is trapped.
We are seeing healthy accumulation and basing action now before the next step higher which should be soon. Remember, if this is a new bull market, you add on pullbacks, which are generally and surprisingly brief. I think next week we will see 36. And maybe higher.
the same old arguments but no proof. Everything is to be continued. The sameness. Waiting. Heard all this from the last crowd, and the crowd before them, and the crowd before them. The Casino is always open to sell the same old story to new people.
1st time I have seen action like this in GDX in many many years, where the short corporate interests are looking to have lost their ambush in a big way, which means they are SOL in a big way